Wednesday, December 28, 2011

WJC calculations

Just crunching the numbers here after Canada's win over the Czech Republic tonight coupled with USA's loss to Finland this afternoon...

If we assume that both Canada and Finland will beat Denmark in regulation time (which seems like a safe assumption to make), then the only way Canada does NOT win the round-robin pool is if:

 - USA beats the Czech Republic in regulation on Friday
 - Finland does NOT beat the Czech Republic in regulation on Saturday afternoon
 - USA beats Canada in regulation on Saturday night

All three of those things MUST happen for USA to take first place in the pool. So in other words, there's a decent possibility that the hyped New Years Eve game between Canada and USA will be meaningless.

If the Finns beat the Czechs in regulation that afternoon (which is a good possibility), then USA would have to beat Canada by 6 goals in order to get first place. And you know that isn't likely going to happen. So while the USA coaches and players were putting on a brave face after today's loss, the reality is that the loss may already have caused them to give up control of their own fate in the round-robin.

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