Second round begins

Well, that was an interesting first round of the playoffs, wasn't it.

By and large, most of the teams that everyone expected to win their first round series did - the higher seed won 7 of the 8 series, with only Saskatoon's upset at the hands of Medicine Hat breaking what would have been a sweep by the higher seeds.

But boy, did some series not go the way most people (myself especially, judging from my first round predictions) expected. I got 7 of the 8 winning teams right but did not pick the correct number of games in any of the eight series. To recap:

Edmonton vs Kootenay - this series went mostly as everyone expected, perhaps the only series in the first round that did. Kootenay won one game (ruining my prediction of a sweep) but it was an OT win in a game in which they were otherwise outplayed.

Saskatoon vs Medicine Hat - one of the shockers of all-time in the WHL playoffs really, the Memorial Cup hosts lose in the first round and not even in a 7 game nailbiter but in a rather one-sided sweep. I'd venture a guess that the number of people who actually predicted a Tigers sweep before the series began is close to zero.

Calgary vs Swift Current - the Broncos did not give the Hitmen quite as tough a series as some (including me) had thought they might, being dispatched in five games. The games were all close (three went to overtime) but Calgary probably never felt they were in danger of losing the series.

Red Deer vs Prince Albert - OK, who thought this would be a sweep? I think a lot of people thought the Rebels would win but it's hard to believe that after such a great start to the year (they were in first place for a while!) the Raiders would go out so easily in the first round of the playoffs.

Portland vs Everett - terrific showing for Everett to win two games considering most predictions called for them to make a quick four game exit. I'd venture that almost nobody predicted anything other than Portland in 4 or 5 here.

Kelowna vs Seattle - Kelowna becomes only the 2nd team in WHL history to win a series after losing the first three games. Like the first time (Spokane over Portland in 95-96) it's fair to say they never should have been down 0-3 in the first place and that winning four in a row is not such an amazing feat when you're 50 regular season points better than your opponent to begin with. You have to give Seattle credit, they hung with the Rockets all series - six of the seven games were one-goal games including five that were decided in overtime. FIVE of seven games in OT!

Kamloops vs Victoria - the Royals gave the Blazers more trouble than some of us, myself included again, thought they would, winning two games and keeping all of the games close until the last one. They're clearly heading in the right direction on the Island....makes you wonder how they might have done if they were healthy and didn't have missing/limping key players.

Spokane vs Tri-City - after so many series that were tougher than expected, here's one where it was actually won in fewer games than many expected. Like the Red Deer / Prince Albert series, I thought it would take more than five games for the Chiefs to beat the Ams but in the end I was wrong about that too.


So with the evidence of my mistaken assumptions in the first round on fresh display, let's take a crack at predicting the second round now....

Eastern Conference:

#1 Edmonton vs #4 Medicine Hat:

The Tigers may have upset the Blades but I have a really hard time seeing them doing the same to the Oil Kings, mainly because the Oil Kings are a better team all-around than the Blades are, but also because the Oil Kings are something the Blades are not: a team with a recent history of success in the post-season. Almost every player (17 in total) on the Oil Kings was also a part of last year's WHL championship team. They know what playoff hockey is, and have had success at it.....something that only 2 or 3 of the players on the Blades could say. The Tigers' chances in this series probably revolve around having ex-Oil King goaltender Cam Lanigan steal four games in net since the Oil Kings have a clear advantage in every area (offence, defence, goaltending, experience) otherwise.

Prediction: Edmonton in five.

#2 Calgary vs #3 Red Deer:

This might be the best series of the second round. These two teams match up very well and played six close games in the regular season - Calgary won the season series 4-2 but only one game was decided by two goals, the other five all were one-goal games. The Hitmen have a big edge offensively and a smaller edge on defence, plus small age, size, and experience advantages. But Red Deer's big weapon is the most important of all and that's in net where Patrik Bartosak is the best goaltender in the WHL. The Hitmen need to figure him out in order to win - something Prince Albert couldn't do to him. The Hitmen did score 10 goals on Bartosak in the 3 regular season meetings he played in, so they just need to do that again in the playoffs.

Prediction: Calgary in six. Seven wouldn't surprise me either.


Western Conference:

#1 Portland vs #4 Spokane:

It's not really accurate to say Portland "struggled" with Everett. Despite losing two of the games, Portland really did dominate Everett in the series and the reason Everett won two games can be summed up in four letters: L, O, T, and Z. In six games Portland outshot Everett 257 - 109 (!!!) and outscored them 32-16 and pretty simply, the four games where L, O, T, and Z didn't steal the win, Everett L, O, S, and T.

In the regular season Portland took 7 of 9 games from Spokane and outscored them 45 - 20 in the process so it's fair to say Spokane is in the same situation Everett was in: they need goaltender Eric Williams to steal them some games (and he struggled a few times against Portland this year - ending with a 4.34 GAA, .884 sv% against the Winterhawks) or it's just not going to happen for them.

Prediction: Portland in six. Five games wouldn't surprise me either.


#2 Kelowna vs #3 Kamloops:

Three weeks ago I would have said this might be a barn-burner of a series, the #2 overall team in the league against the #4 overall team. But that #2 overall team (Kelowna) has sprung a few leaks since then and has six regulars sidelined with injuries and not expected to play in this series. They've also just wrapped up a tough, draining series with Seattle which required them to play overtime five times and fend off elimination four times. Kamloops has no major injuries and have had a few days to rest since concluding their first round series. I have to go with the "underdog" in this one.

Prediction: Kamloops in six.