Playoff race analysis

Going down the standings....I think we can probably break down the remaining season into seven distinctive "races":

Eastern Conference:

Race #1 - Brandon and Saskatoon for the Eastern division title & #1/#2 conference seed:

No doubt that this is a two-horse race - the Wheaties & Blades have an insurmountable 20 point lead on anyone else in the division. The two teams are currently tied with 80 points apiece; Saskatoon has three games in hand but Brandon has a more home-friendly schedule - although that may not matter since the Blades are one of the league's best road teams. The teams also play each other twice more this year, so this should be a good tight race. The two will also need to be keeping an eye on the Central race (next item) as finishing #1 in the conference would give home ice for any possible meeting of the Central champ in the conference final.

Race #2 - Calgary, Kootenay, and Medicine Hat for the Central division title & #1/#2 conference seed. This should be a good race, with the Hitmen & Ice currently separated by just three points. The Tigers are another point back and give up two games in hand to the Ice and three to the Hitmen - conditions under which normally I'd drop them out of the race. But the Tigers have a very favorable schedule remaining - they play 10 of their remaining 13 games at home and play the Ice three times - a great schedule for making up ground. Calgary also has a home-heavy schedule though and the easiest remaining opponents of anyone in the conference, so catching the Hitmen may prove to be the more difficult task - for either of the Ice or Tigers.

Race #3 - Red Deer, Prince Albert, Swift Current, Moose Jaw, and Regina for the last three playoff spots. Five teams, 11 points, three spots. It's actually a bit of a three-team race for two spots right now though, as Red Deer is five points ahead of everyone else in 6th place, and Regina is five points back of everyone else, in 10th place. It looks good for the Rebels and bad for the Pats right now, but a few games' worth of a hot or cold streak can change that. In the middle of the pack though, the Raiders, Broncos, and Warriors are separated by just one point in that battle for the 7th and 8th playoff spots. The Warriors have 2 & 3 games in hand on the other two teams so that may give them a slight edge except that they have a road-heavy schedule and they're one of the league's worse road teams. All in all, a pretty tight race ahead, I think.

Western Conference:

Race #4: Everett, Portland, and Spokane for the #3 through #5 conference seeds. I am assuming Tri-City will not be caught for #1 (more on that in a bit), and so we have the next three U.S. teams separated by five points. With Tri-City taking the #1 seed and the B.C. division winner taking the #2 seed, the Tips, Hawks, and Chiefs are battling for the two remaining home ice slots at #3 and #4. As a bonus to the winner of spot #3, they'll get to face one of the weaker B.C. division teams in the first round - as opposed to the two "losers" in #4 and #5, who will have to play each other.

Race #5: Kelowna, Kamloops, and Chilliwack for the #6 through #8 conference seeds. They are anywhere from 8 to 14 points back of the above-mentioned U.S. teams and 10-16 points back of Vancouver for the B.C. division crown. No races there....the Giants are going to win the division despite their brutal almost-all-road-game remaining schedule. These three are also all but guaranteed playoff spots - Seattle is way too far back to have any chance of catching any of them. Which leaves these three to battle for the #6-#7-#8 spots and the chance to upset a Tri-City, Vancouver, or EVT/POR/SPO in the first round....

Notes: I know Tri-City can still be caught for #1 in the U.S. division, and Vancouver for #1 in the B.C. division - and the #1/#2 conference seeds that come with those titles. But the Ams have a 7 point lead on Everett & Portland, with 1 game in hand on Everett and 3 on Portland. Vancouver has a 10 point lead on Kelowna with 1 game in hand. To think they'll be caught requires you to believe that these top teams are going to fall enough off their pace that the teams behind them can make up the points AND the games-in-hand. I don't see that as being very likely. But I could be proven wrong....

League-wide:

Race #6: Brandon, Saskatoon, Tri-City, Calgary, Kootenay, and Medicine Hat for #1 overall and home ice throughout the playoffs. Lot of teams in that race yet....and I left Everett and Portland (who are within striking distance as well) off for the reasons I listed earlier - for them to get it requires them to catch Tri-City first and I already said I didn't think that would happen.

Race #7: Prince George, Edmonton, Seattle, and Lethbridge for last overall and the best chance at the #1 overall draft pick: This actually isn't a race at all since there is absolutely no question that Prince George is going to finish last overall. With 17 games to play they are 11 points behind 2nd-worst Edmonton and haven't recorded 11 points in any 17-game stretch all season so they aren't going to catch anyone. So the race here is really the other three teams jockeying for 2nd and 3rd last, with their 24% and 19% chances respectively of getting the top pick in the draft lottery (Prince George will have a 57% chance of holding on to the #1 pick in the lottery).