Playoff races

Into the final 10 days of the 2012-13 regular season now and in looking at the standings, I see six playoff "races" still underway - positions to be determined, in other words.

Four teams have been mathematically eliminated from the postseason already - Brandon, Regina, and Moose Jaw in the East, and Vancouver in the West. But beyond that, only two playoff seeds have been clinched and that's #1 in the East, which belongs to Edmonton, and #2 in the East, which will belong to Saskatoon in the first round.

Portland has not yet mathematically clinched #1 in their conference, but they will (by this Saturday night, I'd bet), so I'm not going to call that a "playoff race" anymore. Same with Portland clinching first overall - they haven't yet, but they will by this weekend most likely.

So the six races that are still up in the air....

1) Kamloops vs Kelowna for #2/#3 in the West. Kelowna has a five point lead and one game in hand over the Blazers in this battle, so the race is all but over.

There's a side script to this battle as well and that's that Kelowna is also only one point behind Edmonton for 2nd overall. But I suspect not too many people are really concerned about 2nd overall; the only meaning it will have would be home ice in the WHL Final if Edmonton met the Rockets in that series.

2) Tri-City, Spokane and Victoria for 4th/5th/6th in the West. Victoria is horribly slumping right now and have dropped 9 points back of Spokane for 5th. With only 6 games to play, it seems pretty likely that Victoria is going to end up 6th. So this is really a 2 horse race between the Americans and Chiefs to see who gets home ice for their first round #4 vs #5 matchup. The Ams have a one point lead with both teams having 6 games to play - including two head-to-head games. Could go to the wire.

3) Seattle, Everett, and Prince George for 7th/8th/9th in the West. This race is pretty close to a two horse race since Prince George is 6 points back of Everett for 8th and the Cougars play 6 of their last 7 games on the road, and they are the 2nd worst team in the entire league on the road. It ain't promising for them. So really it's Everett vs Seattle (Seattle has a two point lead with games played even at 67) for the right to be eliminated in four quick games in the first round by Portland and Kelowna/Kamloops. Battling for 7th/8th is really a little bit like a condemned man being offered his choice of the electric chair or a firing squad.

4) Calgary vs Saskatoon for 2nd overall in the East. The Blades are going to get the #2 seed in the first round, but for the second round the seeds get re-done by points, which means that if the Hitmen and Blades end up facing each other in the second round then whoever has more points will get home ice advantage in that series. Calgary currently has a 1 point lead on the Blades and also have one game in hand.

I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Red Deer is technically still in this race as well, but they are 7 points back of Calgary and they only have four games remaining so it seems very unlikely they would catch the Hitmen to have a chance at 2nd overall in the conference.

5) Red Deer vs Saskatoon for possible #3 seeding in the 2nd round. Red Deer isn't likely going to catch Calgary but they can still catch Saskatoon - they're 4 points back and the Blades have a game in hand. Unlikely but not impossible. If it happened, then assuming no upsets in the first round, we would see Calgary #2, Red Deer #3, and Saskatoon #4 for the second round, meaning Saskatoon would draw Edmonton in the second round. But like I said, it's unlikely to happen.

6) Prince Albert, Medicine Hat, Swift Current, Kootenay, and Lethbridge for 5th/6th/7th/8th/9th in the East.  Prince Albert won 20 games before the end of November. Now they are fighting just to finish in the middle of the pack.

From Medicine Hat and Swift Current (71 pts) down to Lethbridge (62 points) is only 9 points' difference so there's the potential for movement up or down by all these teams.

While the Raiders and Broncos cannot miss the playoffs, one of the Tigers//Ice/Hurricanes will. No mistake though, Lethbridge has their backs up against the wall to make the playoffs. They trail Kootenay for the last spot by 6 points with only 5 games remaining. They need to win at least three of their remaining games, plus win one more game for each game Kootenay wins. Tall order but in Lethbridge's favour is the home-and-home they have with the Ice on Tuesday & Wednesday. It goes without saying that they need to win at least one and preferably both of those games.


And the remaining schedules for the teams still engaged in some playoff races over the final days of the season:

Calgary (5):
Home (4): Lethbridge, Red Deer, Medicine Hat, Kootenay
Away (1): Kootenay

Edmonton (4):
Home (2): Saskatoon, Red Deer
Away (2): Moose Jaw, Red Deer

Everett (4): 
Home (2): Victoria, Tri-City
Away (2): Seattle, Victoria

Kamloops (3): 
Home (1):  Prince George
Away (2): Kelowna, Prince George

Kelowna (4):
Home (3): Kamloops, Prince George, Vancouver
Away (1): Vancouver

Kootenay (5): 
Home (2): Lethbridge, Calgary
Away (3): Spokane, Lethbridge, Calgary

Lethbridge (5): 
Home (2): Kootenay, Medicine Hat
Away (3): Calgary, Kootenay, Medicine Hat

Medicine Hat (4): 
Home (1): Lethbridge
Away (3): Prince Albert, Calgary, Lethbridge

Portland (5): 
Home (2): Seattle, Spokane
Away (3): Victoria, Victoria, Seattle

Prince Albert (4): 
Home (3): Medicine Hat, Saskatoon, Saskatoon
Away (1): Brandon

Prince George (7):
Home (1): Kamloops
Away (6): Seattle, Tri-City, Vancouver, Spokane, Kelowna, Kamloops

Red Deer (3):
Home (1): Edmonton
Away (2): Calgary, Edmonton

Saskatoon (4):
Home (1): Regina
Away (3): Edmonton, Prince Albert, Prince Albert

Seattle (4):
Home (3): Everett, Tri-City, Portland
Away (1): Portland

Spokane (5):
Home (3): Kootenay, Prince George, Tri-City
Away (2): Tri-City, Portland

Swift Current (3):
Home (1): Regina
Away (2): Brandon, Regina

Tri-City (5):
Home (2): Prince George, Spokane
Away (3): Seattle, Spokane, Everett

Victoria (5):
Home (3): Portland, Portland, Everett
Away (2): Vancouver, Everett