Trade deadline week

The WHL trade deadline arrives four days from now - this Friday January 10 at 3:00pm Mountain time if past years are any indication. (I can't find an official notice from the league but I would be surprised if the deadline was different this year)

So with that in mind, some idle blathering about what certain teams may or may not do in the next 96 hours...

First, who are the sellers? It's easy to identify buyers - usually the teams at or near the top of the standings - but determining sellers is harder due to the factors teams have to consider. Like,

1. 1. do they still have a realistic hope of making the playoffs? If so, is making the playoffs and getting at least two home gates very important to them? For some teams a couple home playoff games means the difference between losing money and breaking even or showing a profit, so that may factor in. 
2. What's the projected roster for the team look like for next year? Teams with good 19 year olds who are likely to return as overagers next year may not want to part with those players because they are potentially leaders on next year's team which could turn things around. Alternately, are there glaring-looking gaps in next year's roster that trading a veteran right now might help to address? 
3. What's the trade market looking like right now? If I trade player X, can I get a return on him which makes sense to my team? Even if Player X is a slam-dunk to be in the NHL next year, it doesn't mean trading him for a bucket of practice pucks this week is a good thing. He has value to my team to stay here and play the rest of the year here - aiding my other players in their development and entertaining my paying fans. So it has to be a worthwhile trade. 
4. What's the strength of the draft this year look like? If you're thinking of trading a player for draft picks, the value of those may change depending if the draft is a strong draft or a weak one. If the draft is considered several rounds deep then acquiring mid to late round picks are more valuable than in years where the draft is crap and the quality of a 5th rounder is indistinguishable from an 8th rounder. Higher picks also have less value in a strong draft since even without a 1st round pick you can still get good players in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. Higher picks in a weak draft are more valuable since not having one might mean you don't get an impact player in a particular age group. 

Etc, etc....but with that being said, I think a look at the standings right now reveals four teams who are very likely to miss the playoffs this year and thus are almost certainly sellers: Kamloops in the West, and Lethbridge, Saskatoon, and Moose Jaw in the East. Some of those teams (Lethbridge, Saskatoon) have already started selling players but I would be surprised if the others aren't also listening carefully to offers. Kamloops is 16 points out of a playoff spot in the West and since 16 points is 2/3 of their current season total it seems daunting to think they still have a chance. Moose Jaw is only 12 points out of the playoffs in the East so they could make more of an argument for having a chance to make it, but the teams in 7th & 8th (Kootenay and Prince Albert) also have 3 games in hand AND have shown all indications of being buyers this year. It won't be easy for the Warriors to catch up.

Teams on the bubble right now - I'd say Tri-City and Prince George in the West, and Red Deer, Prince Albert, Kootenay, Regina, and Brandon in the East - are teams that COULD make the playoffs but aren't comfortably there yet. These teams are the ones that probably have to weigh the pros and cons the most. How much can they give up and still make the playoffs? Or do they want to try to add a piece and maybe move up the standings, try to get a round or two deeper in the postseason? As I said above, I doubt Kootenay and Prince Albert will sellers, I see them as buyers. The Ice already gave up their 2015 1st round bantam pick in a trade (for Tim Bozon) and could very well lose superstar Sam Reinhart to the NHL next year, two things which to my view make them already pretty much all-in on winning this season.

Contenders - in the East, Calgary, Edmonton, and Swift Current are atop the heap and have already made some moves indicating they intend to stay there and attempt to win a title. In the West, CHL #1 Kelowna is an obvious one and really, the West is so wide open after that with 9 points separating the next 6 teams it's not a stretch to say they are all potential buyers. Every one of those teams could believe that just one more player is the key to getting to the conference final or even to the WHL final. Given their offensive superstars I think Portland is a lock to be a buyer this year and go for back-to-back titles. Victoria is actually #2 in the conference in points right now, do they think they need just one or two players to best Kelowna or Portland in the postseason? Spokane already traded a veteran defenceman for a 16 year old rookie forward, does that mean they are prepared to drop back in the race? Etc, etc....it's an exciting time in that conference right now.

Some things I think might happen by the deadline....I emphasize that ALL of these notes are based on nothing more than my speculation. Please don't read this and say, "OMG! Team X is trading for Player Y!". It's speculation. Nothing more.

1. I'd be surprised if Lethbridge didn't trade '94 defenceman Nick Walters. I think he might be the most appealing defenceman on the trade block this year. He is likely to be a pro next year so the incentive for Lethbridge to hang onto him is small, plus he would fetch a good price.
2. Same goes for '94 defenceman Travis Brown in Moose Jaw. Likely to play pro next year and has good value to a contender, so the Warriors are sure to be tempted to move him.
3. Overage defenceman Graeme Craig, with his Memorial Cup experience, will likely have some teams calling the Blades. 
4. Ditto for overage defenceman Sam Grist of the Blazers. Craig and Grist are both the type of big, warrior type defencemen contenders can always use for playoff runs. Their overage status is the only thing which would hamper deals for them IMO, since contenders need to either have an overage spot open or be willing to move one of their existing ones. 
5. Moose Jaw probably shops one or more of their 3 19 year old forwards - Scott Cooke, Tanner Eberle, and Jack Rodewald. Gritty-type players who could bolster a contending team's 3rd & 4th lines. 
6. I suspect Lethbridge will be looking to move overage goaltender Corbin Boes. Bringing in 19 year old Teagan Sacher seems to support that Boes could be had by a contender. 
7. Portland, Seattle, and Kootenay have open overage spots. The Hawks and Thunderbirds might both be interested in Boes. If Portland doesn't fill their open spot with Boes, then one of those overage defencemen - Grist or Craig - are good fits there too on a team with much offence but a shaky blueline group. Of course, if they land Mat Dumba maybe they don't need to tinker any more with the blueline.
8. Kelowna has historically not swung major trade deadline deals. Doesn't mean they won't this year though, but they don't really have any glaring holes so if they do anything, I think it's smaller deals for depth. A forward? ("Please hold for Alan Millar....")
9. Victoria is the best defensive team in the WHL. Is one more good offensive weapon the edge they need to take down the Rockets or Hawks in a 7 game series? Are there any of those on the market? Any that aren't overage? (Is Troy Bourke available? Is Chandler Stephenson?)
10. I think Calgary definitely adds one more defenceman, they are a bit thin there with Jaynen Rissling hurt and can use the depth. Rissling is expected back so Calgary probably isn't interested in an overage defenceman but I can see them interested in Walters or Brown. Or a less-obvious guy. (Hamonic? Bell?)
11. Edmonton I think is set on defence and in net, so if they do anything it might be up front. No offence to Riley Kieser, but as an overager there are better ones available to Edmonton if they want to upgrade. Fioretti? Leier? Local boy Mitch Holmberg???
12. Swift Current is in the same boat as Edmonton in that their defence and goaltending is probably not a concern. Another forward for depth? They are 0-4 against Calgary and 1-1 vs Edmonton this year, how much do they want to gamble on being able to beat the Hitmen or Oil Kings in a playoff series? Are they happy to stand pat and take their chances as they are right now?