Overage speculation

Going to take a shot here at figuring out who might be each WHL team's three overagers when the deadline passes. I'm getting started on this a bit later than usual (training camps open this week!) but better late than never, eh?

Brandon Wheat Kings:
Last year's 19 year olds: Curtis Honey (G), Richard Nejezchleb (F), Ryan Pulock (D), Peter Quenneville (F), Eric Roy (D)
My picks: Pulock has an NHL contract so he is gone. The team has also already stated that Honey will not be back next season so I assume they will try to trade or else release him. That leaves Nejezchleb, Quenneville, and Roy which is a pretty darn good trio apart from Nejezchleb being an import. Keeping Nejezchleb means they would have to trade Rihards Bukarts (won't happen, he's going to score 35-40 goals this year) or release Ivan Provorov (guess it depends on how he looks when he shows up). Nejezchleb could also sign with the NHL's NY Rangers before the season starts yet too. All in all I think the Wheat Kings may be in a position of trading for an overager, either to replace Nejezchleb or in exchange for him.


Calgary Hitmen:
Last year's 19 year olds: Chris Driedger (G), Kenton Helgesen (D), Joe Mahon (F), Pavel Padakin (F), Connor Rankin (F), Adam Tambellini (F), Mike Winther (F)
My picks: Driedger and Helgesen have NHL contracts and are thus likely gone. Padakin has signed in the KHL but his KHL team is in Donetsk, Ukraine and due to the civil unrest in the area (and the firebombing of their rink) the team will not play in the KHL next year and have made their players free agents for the year. So who knows if Padakin might return or not. I'm assuming not, and even if he does I think the Hitmen would likely try to trade him (and his 27 goals) to a team needing an import. That leaves Mahon, Rankin, Tambellini, and Winther. Assuming the latter three are all back and don't sign pro deals before the season starts, Mahon is the obvious odd man out for a trade or release. Mahon had 9 goals and 10 fights in limited ice time last year so maybe somebody will be interested in him if they think he can play in their top nine forwards. May be Jr A in his future though.


Edmonton Oil Kings:
Last year's 19 year olds: Edgars Kulda (F), Mitch Moroz (F), Blake Orban (D), Griffin Reinhart (D), Henrik Samuelsson (F), Tyler Santos (G), Ashton Sautner (D)
My picks: Moroz, Reinhart, and Samuelsson have NHL contracts and are long gone. That leaves Kulda (if he doesn't sign an NHL contract with Arizona), Orban, Santos, and Sautner. They are not going to bring Santos back as an overage backup goaltender so it's really just Kulda, Orban, and Sautner. I suspect that given their significant losses up front (especially if Curtis Lazar sticks in the NHL!) the Oil Kings would love Kulda back but it means they'd have to trade Mads Eller or release Marsel Ibragimov. Those losses up front might also mean they'd be willing to swap either Orban or Sautner for an overage forward who can help their offence. Could be an interesting few weeks in Edmonton in the O/A department.


Everett Silvertips:
Last year's 19 year olds: Kohl Bauml (F), Ben Betker (D), Daniel Cotton (G), Zane Jones (F), Jujhar Khaira (F), Brayden Low (F)
My picks: Khaira has an NHL deal and he's gone. Cotton isn't going to be back as an overage backup goaltender to Austin Lotz, so scratch Cotton as well. That leaves Bauml, Becker, Jones and Low for three spots. Betker is an easy one, and I like Bauml and Jones over Low for the two remaining spots at forward.


Kamloops Blazers:
Last year's 19 year olds: Brady Gaudet (D) (acquired from Red Deer), Bolton Pouliot (G), Chase Souto (F)
My picks: there's only three players here and I suspect this will be Kamloops' trio this season. They traded for Gaudet so they obviously want him, while Pouliot was their starting goaltender last year and remains the only experienced goaltender on the roster with the trading of Justin Myles to Lethbridge during the summer, so I think Pouliot's job is safe as well. And Souto had 20 goals in a little over half a season so he's a guy they'll be looking to offensively as well as for leadership.


Kelowna Rockets:
Last year's 19 year olds:
Tyrell Goulbourne (F), Colton Heffley (F), Colten Martin (D), Marc McCoy (F), Ryan Olsen (F), Carter Rigby (F), Damon Severson (D)
My picks: Olson and Severson have NHL contracts and are gone to the pros. McCoy never actually played for the Rockets after being acquired midseason from Regina so I'm not sure if he's in the picture or not. I'm leaning towards "not". That leaves Goulbourne, Heffley, Martin, and Rigby, and I think Heffley is the odd man out of that quartet. He may very well find some interest around the league though.


Kootenay Ice:
Last year's 19 year olds: Tim Bozon (F), Levi Cable (F), Landon Cross (D), Landon Peel (D), Mackenzie Skapski (G), Austin Vetterl (F)
My picks: Bozon and Skapski are signed to NHL deals, they're gone. The Ice do not need two overage defencemen so IMO that means they probably keep the two forwards - Cable and Vetterl - plus one of the defencemen, likely Cross. Peel might be of interest to somebody in the league?


Lethbridge Hurricanes:
Last year's 19 year olds: Tyler Bell (D), Teagan Sacher (G), Riley Sheen (F), Nick Walters (D)
My picks: All four of those guys are eligible to return although it really doesn't look good for Sacher since the Hurricanes acquired Justin Myles from Kamloops in the offseason and also have top goaltending prospect Stuart Skinner to break in. I think it's very unlikely that Sacher and his career .884 save percentage makes the Hurricanes, which leaves the other three. On the other hand, the Hurricanes have seven returning defencemen and may not want to keep two overagers at that position so perhaps they could be looking to switch one of those guys for a forward.


Medicine Hat Tigers:
Last year's 19 year olds: Kyle Becker (D), Miles Koules (F), Marek Langhamer (G), Tyler Lewington (D), Jared Rathjen (G) (acquired from Vancouver), Hunter Shinkaruk (F)
My picks: The Tigers have seen the last of Shinkaruk. Langhamer could be returned to the WHL but I'm going to assume the Coyotes find a place for him in the minors. He's also an import which would muddle things for the Tigers if he came back. For the four guys that are back, it would seem like Becker, Koules, and Lewington make a good trio for the Tigers but if you don't keep Rathjen (or get Langhamer back) then that leaves 17 year old Nick Schneider as their only goaltender. Schneider looked good last year but I don't think they want to be in that situation, so they either trade for a veteran goalie or they keep Rathjen. If they keep Rathjen then I think Becker is the odd man out but there will be interest in him for sure.


Moose Jaw Warriors:
Last year's 19 year olds: Scott Cooke (F), Tanner Eberle (F), Jack Rodewald (F), Cole Wedman (D) (acquired from Moose Jaw), Jaimen Yakubowski (F) (acquired from Seattle)
My picks: Wedman has opted to go to university rather than play as an overager. That leaves Cooke, Eberle, Rodewald, and Yakubowski, with Cooke being IMO the rather obvious odd man out of that situation. Cooke will drop down to Jr A and that leaves the other three unless the Warriors want to explore shoring up their shaky looking blueline with a veteran defenceman via trade.


Portland Winterhawks:
Last year's 19 year olds: Adam De Champlain (F), Mathew Dumba (D), Trace Elson (F), Josh Hanson (D), Taylor Leier (F), Brendan Leipsic (F), Shaun MacPherson (D), Derrick Pouliot (D)
My picks: Dumba, Leier, Leipsic, Pouliot: goodbye Portland, hello NHL/AHL. MacPherson was actually reassigned to Jr A last year so he is probably not even in the team's plans despite remaining on their protected list. That leaves De Champlain, Elson (who they drafted late in the bantam draft after Vancouver dropped him) and Hanson. I don't believe De Champlain can play in Portland's top six forwards so the question is whether they want him for his "intangibles". Same thing goes for Elson, who has 4 points in 20 career WHL games so he's not going to be forcing a Petan or a De Leo off the powerplay or anything. Portland's big need once again is defencemen, especially ones who can get the puck to their plethora of skilled forwards, so I'm looking for them to make a move to pick up an available veteran and give him De Champlain or Elson's spot in the trio.


Prince Albert Raiders:
Last year's 19 year olds: Chance Braid (F) (traded to Prince George), Calder Brooks (F), Dakota Conroy (F), Shane Danyluk (F), Jayden Hart (F), Sawyer Lange (D), Carson Perreaux (F)
My picks: there may not be many teams with tougher decisions to make than the Raiders, who have six players who all have a legitimate chance to play as overagers in the league this year. Every single one of these guys is capable of 40+ points in a season so who do you keep? I think Conroy (30 goals last year) and Lange (top 15 in defenceman scoring last year) have to be pretty sure of spots but what do you do with the third spot? I'm going with Hart, which means Brooks, Danyluk, and Perreaux should be available for teams looking for upgrades to their 2nd forward line.


Prince George Cougars:
Last year's 19 year olds: Adam Beukeboom (G), Troy Bourke (F), Chance Braid (F) (acquired from Prince Albert), Jari Erricson (F), Zach Pochiro (F), Brett Roulston (F), Wil Tomchuk (D)
My picks: Bourke and Pochiro have NHL contracts and are likely gone to the AHL. The Cougars are not going to keep Beukeboom as an overage backup goaltender, and I believe Jari Erricson has retired due to injury, which leaves Braid, Roulston, and Tomchuk as the Cougars' three overagers at the moment. I say at the moment because Roulston is not a top-six forward, nor is Tomchuk a top-four defenceman. So, I think the Cougars' O/A situation is very up in the air still.


Red Deer Rebels:
Last year's 19 year olds: Matt Bellerive (F) (traded to Vancouver), Brett Cote (D) (acquired from Victoria), Devan Fafard (D), Brady Gaudet (D) (traded to Kamloops), Brooks Maxwell (F), Aspen Sterzer (F)
My picks: Maxwell and Sterzer were always going to be back, and the trade for Cote means there is no room for Devan Fafard on the blueline. Not too much in the way of decisions to be made here IMO.


Regina Pats:
Last year's 19 year olds: Braden Christoffer (F), Patrick D'Amico (F), Dawson MacAuley (G), Logan McVeigh (F), Dmitry Sinitsyn (D), Chandler Stephenson  (F)
My picks: Stephenson is off to the AHL and Sinitsyn is off to the KHL, so they are out. The three forwards are probably all 40-point types and I'm not sure the Pats need all three of them but on the other hand, they may not need MacAuley in net either since they have 19 year old Daniel Wapple, who had better numbers for the Pats last year than MacAuley did. So if they go with Wapple and a younger goalie in net, they don't need MacAuley. If they do keep MacAuley then I suspect McVeigh might be the odd man out in the forward group.


Saskatoon Blades:
Last year's 19 year olds: Chase Clayton (F), Brett Stovin (F), Troy Trombley (G)
My picks: there's only three names on their list so they don't have to do anything, but this is a rather unimpressive trio. IMO it's questionable whether Clayton and Stovin play in Saskatoon's top six forwards. Trombley definitely is the #1 goalie heading into the season, so he has a spot but the other two spots could be open to upgrades.


Seattle Thunderbirds:
Last year's 19 year olds: Alexander Delnov (F), Adam Henry (D), Justin Hickman (F), Connor Honey (F), Taran Kozun (G), Roberts Lipsbergs (F), Russell Maxwell (F), Sam McKechnie (F), Branden Troock (F), Evan Wardley (D), Jaimen Yakubowski (F) (traded to Moose Jaw)
My picks: Maxwell has opted not to play an overage season, so he is out. Delnov and Lipsbergs have signed deals in Europe while Troock has an NHL contract, so those three are gone as well. Even with those four gone and Yakubowski already traded to Moose Jaw, the Thunderbirds have got numbers to spare here with six guys left for three spots: Henry, Hickman, Honey, Kozun, McKechnie, and Wardley. In whittling down the list, my first question is whether Connor Honey is healthy after missing almost all of last season. If he is, he's a point a game player who will be in the league, if not on the team. Justin Hickman is a very versatile forward who potted 22 goals and was also the team captain last year so he should be on the team for certain. And Taran Kozun was lights-out in net after being acquired at the trade deadline so based on that he should definitely make the team too. That's three. But, you can make a case for a defenceman (either Henry or Wardley) as well so I think it may come down to whether the team wants a 2nd forward (Honey) or a defenceman. If Honey is not able to play again then the decision gets easier of course. That leaves McKechnie and Henry/Wardley (or both?) on the outside IMO, plus maybe Honey. I suspect there will be interest around the league in all of the players that don't make the cut in Seattle.


Spokane Chiefs:
Last year's 19 year olds: Connor Chartier (F), Reid Gow (D), Marcus Messier (F), Carter Proft (F), Liam Stewart (F), Cole Wedman (D) (traded to Moose Jaw)
My picks: Gow has opted not to play as an overager. Proft has signed a pro contract in Europe. That leaves Chartier, Messier, and Stewart. Keeping those three is not a terrible decision but all three are probably 40 point guys at best so it's hard to see the Chiefs saying No to an opportunity to acquire a top-line forward or defenceman if they found such an opportunity. If Gow had not retired unexpectedly, one of those three guys would not be on the team anyway.


Swift Current Broncos:
Last year's 19 year olds: Colby Cave (F), Coda Gordon (F), Andrew Johnson (F), Stephen Shmoorkoff (D)
My picks: All four of those guys should be back. Cave and Gordon are obviously locks for spots, which leaves Johnson vs Shmoorkoff for the last spot. With a defence group already consisting of Heatherington, Honka, Lernout, Harris, and Martin though, I don't think the Broncos need Shmoorkoff out there which means they probably trade him and keep Johnson. I would keep an eye on their goaltending situation though, if Landon Bow doesn't seize the #1 job like he should, the Broncos might be interested in an overage goaltender and use Johnson's spot to do that.


Tri-City Americans:
Last year's 19 year olds: Justin Hamonic (D), Steven Hodges (F) (acquired from Victoria), Lucas Nickles (F), Jackson Playfair (F), Michal Plutnar (D)
My picks: Plutnar has signed in Europe and Hodges has an NHL contract so neither one of them is likely to be in the WHL this year. That leaves Hamonic, Nickles, and Playfair. Hamonic has already been named team captain for 2014-15 so he obviously has a spot. Nickles' 36 points last year probably garners him one too. Playfair is a mucker and not your traditional use of an overage spot so I think the Americans are probably going to be looking to make a trade to fill that 3rd spot.


Vancouver Giants:
Last year's 19 year olds: Matt Bellerive (F) (acquired from Red Deer), Joel Hamilton (F), Brett Kulak (D), Trent Lofthouse (F), Travis McEvoy (F), Jared Rathjen (G) (traded to Medicine Hat), Dalton Sward (F), Rob Trzonkowski (F), Dominik Volek (F)
My picks: Kulak is off to the Calgary Flames system and Volek is off to Europe, so scratch those two. Six guys left - Bellerive, Hamilton, Lofthouse, McEvoy, Sward, and Trzonkowski - but IMO it's not particularly hard to whittle that down to Bellerive, Hamilton, and Sward. The other three are all 3rd/4th line type players and I'm not sure they will be in the league as overagers.


Victoria Royals:
Last year's 19 year olds: Travis Brown (D), Austin Carroll (F), Brett Cote (D) (traded to Red Deer), Steven Hodges (F) (traded to Tri-City), Brandon Magee (F), Patrik Polivka (G)
My picks: Polivka has signed in Europe, so he's out. Magee did sign in Europe but has since decided to return and face his 12 game suspension. That's going to keep him out of the first 1/6th of the Royals season and force them to play with only two overagers in those games but he's their leading returning scorer so no question the Royals will wait that out. So now they have Brown, Carroll, and Magee which is a pretty darn good trio and I don't see the Royals making any further moves with their overagers.


That's it....let the hate mail flow.

(Seriously, comments, corrections and any other feedback is welcome!)