Picking the overagers

Something I like to do around these parts every summer is take a shot at figuring out each team's three overagers for the upcoming season. Let's take a team-by-team look at how the '95s might shake down by the time the deadline comes in mid-October.

Brandon Wheat Kings:

Last year's 19 year olds: Rihards Bukarts (F), Macoy Erkamps (D), Morgan Klimchuk (F), Quintin Lisoway (F), Tim McGauley (F), Alex Moodie (G), Colton Waltz (D)

Not returning:  Klimchuk has an NHL contract with the Calgary Flames and will be off to the AHL this season.

2015-16 breakdown: McGauley is a lock for a spot, assuming he doesn't sign an NHL contract as a free agent tryout this fall. And while nothing has been announced, I do not expect to see Alex Moodie in the WHL this year. Papirny is going to make most of the starts for the Wheat Kings so it makes no sense to keep an O/A goaltender as a backup. The other two spots though are really uncertain IMO and I think a lot depends on whether the Wheat Kings get neither, one, or both of Ivan Provorov and Oliver Kylington from their NHL teams.

If only one or neither of them is sent to Brandon then Bukarts keeps his roster spot as a two-spotter. The third spot would be filled by one of Erkamps/Waltz, with the other one being traded. Can't go wrong with either of those guys but I'd bet on Erkamps being the one who stays.

If both Provorov and Kylington are sent to Brandon then Bukarts is an obvious odd-man-out as the 3rd import and will be traded. That still leaves two O/A spots open so they could keep both of Erkamps and Waltz but the ironic thing is that with Provorov, Kylington, Pilon, and Clague, the Wheat Kings don't NEED two overage defencemen who will probably not be happy with 3rd pairing ice time. So maybe Lisoway stays in that case and one of the defencemen still gets moved. Any way you slice it, Brandon's O/A situation is the most unsettled at the moment.



Calgary Hitmen:

Last year's 19 year olds: Brendan Burke (G), Colby Harmsworth (D), Keegan Kanzig (D), Elliott Peterson (F), Mack Shields (G)

Not returning: Kanzig has an NHL contract with the Calgary Flames and will likely be in the AHL this season.

2015-16 breakdown: Compared to Brandon, this one is a breeze. Harmsworth, Peterson, and one of the two goalies are the overagers this year. The other goalie gets traded, or released if there's no trade market for average overages. I'm leaning towards Burke being the one who stays, but really it's a 50/50 feeling here as Shields has had his good moments as much as Burke has.



Edmonton Oil Kings:

Last year's 19 year olds: Brandon Baddock (F), Cole Benson (F), Luke Bertolucci (F), Ben Carroll (D), Marshall Donald (D), Mads Eller (F), Tristan Jarry (G)

Not returning: Benson has opted to go to university rather than play as an overager. Tristan Jarry has an NHL contract with Pittsburgh and is headed for the AHL.

2015-16 breakdown: Baddock has been NHL-drafted but not yet signed, but that could change after NHL training camp, so a trip to the AHL is not out of the question for him. The other question mark for the Oil Kings is what to do with Mads Eller. He has not signed in Europe so presumably he is expected back as a potential two-spot player. Whether they want him to take up two spots probably has a lot to do with how their two new imports - Anatoli Elizarov and Dario Meyer - look in camp. If they both look like WHL material then probably Eller gets released IMO. Whereas if one of them looks like he's not going to hack it at the WHL level, then Eller might still have a chance.

Baddock (if he's not signed) and Carroll probably have jobs for sure IMO. The third spot comes down to Bertolucci, Donald, and maybe Eller. IMO I'm keeping Bertolucci and trading or waiving Donald and Eller. I don't think there's enough difference between Bertolucci and Eller to justify using the overage AND import spot on Eller.



Everett Silvertips:

Last year's 19 year olds: Logan Aasman (F), Remi Laurencelle (F), Austin Lotz (G), Cole MacDonald (D), Jake Mykitiuk (F), Nikita Scherbak (F), Carson Stadnyk (F)

Not returning: Aasman and Mykitiuk were waived this summer. Scherbak has an NHL contract with Montreal and will be headed for the pro ranks.

2015-16 breakdown: Laurencelle, Lotz, MacDonald, and Stadnyk for three spots and I think Lotz may be the odd man out since he lost the starting goaltenders job to Carter Hart last year. If the team is comfortable with Hart being their #1 at 17, and if they have a capable backup (Petit?), then there's no need to keep an overage backup and Lotz will catch some interest as trade bait. If they do decide to stay with a Hart/Lotz tandem again though, then probably Laurencelle is the odd guy out here?




Kamloops Blazers:

Last year's 19 year olds: Michael Fora (D), Luke Harrison (F), Marc McNulty (D), Matt Needham (F), Ryan Rehill (D), Cole Ully (F)

Not returning: Fora has signed with Ambri-Piotta of the Swiss league and will be moving on to the Swiss pro ranks to try his hand at shutting down Auston Matthews there. Ully has a NHL contract with Dallas and will likely be in their system next year.

2015-16 breakdown: like Baddock in Edmonton, Rehill has been drafted by the New Jersey Devils but not signed. They could opt to sign him after NHL training camp and so he could end up in the AHL.

Between Harrison, McNulty, Needham, and Rehill.....probably Harrison is the odd man out here IMO, unless Rehill goes pro.




Kelowna Rockets:

Last year's 19 year olds: Tyson Baillie (F), Madison Bowey (D), Leon Draisaitl (F), Cole Linaker (F), Josh Morrissey (D), Gage Quinney (F), Mitchell Wheaton (D),  Jackson Whistle (G)

Not returning: Wheaton was traded to Saskatoon this summer. Bowey (Washington), Draisaitl (Edmonton), and Morrissey (Winnipeg) all have NHL contracts and will be playing pro next year.

2015-16 breakdown: Baillie, Linaker, Quinney, and Whistle are the options. Baillie is a no-brainer but it's a tough choice between the other three and IMO it may really come down to whether the Rockets are happy enough with Jake Morrissey and Michael Herringer in net (both of whom had better numbers last year than Whistle, and they're both younger too) that they feel they can do without Whistle. If they keep Whistle then it's between Linaker and Quinney for the 3rd spot and I keep Linaker IMO.




Kootenay Ice:

Last year's 19 year olds: Ryan Chynoweth (F), Jaedon Descheneau (F), Tanner Faith (D), Lenny Hackman (D), Wyatt Hoflin (G), Tyler King (D), Tanner Lishchynsky (D), Jon Martin (F), Luke Philp (F), Sam Reinhart (F), Rinat Valiev (D)

Not returning: Chynoweth and Hackman have been released. Reinhart (Buffalo) and Valiev (Toronto) have NHL contracts and will be leaving to start their pro careers.

2015-16 breakdown: Even with four guys not returning, the Ice still have as many as 7 bodies in competition for three spots: Descheneau, Faith, Hoflin, King, Lishchynsky, Martin, and Philp. I think they have to keep Hoflin since they thought so little of backup Keelan Williams that he only played 420 minutes last year - that's 7 games. I don't see them making Williams their #1 goalie this year based on that, so unless they acquire a younger goalie I think Hoflin is here to stay as the #1.

After that, Descheneau and Philp are both 30 goal, 80 point guys so they would see obvious guys to keep....if the Ice blueline didn't look so thin that you almost think they HAVE to keep King - or Faith, if he's finally healthy again.

It's going to be a long year in Cranbrook IMO and I fully expect both Descheneau and Philp to be wearing different jerseys by January 11, 2016. Don't be surprised if one or both is in a different jersey by mid-October even. Might as well get the rebuild started and keep one of those defencemen instead of both the forwards.

Jon Martin is an underrated 3rd line guy who I think some teams would like to have, he'll have a new home somewhere. And so will Faith and/or King, whichever one(s) the Ice don't keep to start the year.




Lethbridge Hurricanes:

Last year's 19 year olds: Jamal Watson (F)

Not returning: Watson was dealt to Seattle this summer, meaning there are no returning O/A's from last year's Hurricanes team.

New faces: Arvin Atwal (D) acquired from Vancouver via trade; Justin Gutierrez (F) acquired from Tri-City in trade, and Cory Millette (F) from Seattle in trade

2015-16 breakdown: It's Atwal, Gutierrez, and Millette, not much to debate here since they traded for all of them so they must feel they fit with what they're looking for.




Medicine Hat Tigers:

Last year's 19 year olds: Anthony Ast (F), Kyle Burroughs (D), Trevor Cox (F), Markus Eisenschmid (F), Dryden Hunt (F), Chad Labelle (F), Cole Sanford (F), Ty Stanton (D), Matt Staples (D), Tommy Vannelli (D)

Not returning: Burroughs (NY Islanders) and Vannelli (St. Louis) have NHL deals and will be headed for the AHL. Meanwhile, Ast is heading for Germany to play pro, and Labelle is going to university rather than play as an overager.

2015-16 breakdown: Like the Ice, another team with waaaay too many bodies for the 3 spots they have available. The Tigers still have 6 guys vying for those 3 spots.

Cox, Sanford, and Hunt were the Tigers' 3 top scorers last year and nobody else was even close to them. They could keep all three and be assured of having a team that can score goals in bunches again. On the other hand though, their defence is frightfully inexperienced if you take away both Stanton and Staples - both those guys have as much WHL experience individually than all the rest of the Tigers returning defencemen combined.

I think you can count out Eischenschmid (even though he has not signed with a European team and so would apparently be looking to play as a two-spotter this year). So, I'm thinking they keep Cox and Sanford, plus Stanton, while Hunt and Staples are trade bait that somebody will want. Keeping any combination of three of those five would not surprise me at all though.




Moose Jaw Warriors:

Last year's 19 year olds: Austin Adam (D), Axel Blomqvist (F), Spenser Jensen (D), Torrin White (F)

Not returning: Blomqvist has an NHL contract with Winnipeg and should be off to the AHL.

2015-16 breakdown: Adam, Jensen, and White are the three guys right now but IMO they do not need both Adam and Jensen, not with 6 other returning defencemen aged 18 & 19. In fact they may not keep either of those guys and may opt for picking up two more forwards to go with White instead.




Portland Winterhawks:

Last year's 19 year olds: Oliver Bjorkstrand (F), Anton Cederholm (D), Chase De Leo (F), Blake Heinrich (D), Nicolas Petan (F), Alex Schoenborn (F), Layne Viveiros (D)

Not returning: Bjorkstrand (Columbus), Cederholm (Vancouver), De Leo (Winnipeg), and Petan (Winnipeg) all have NHL contracts and should all be long gone from Portland in favor of starting their professional lives. Viveiros has signed with EC Salzburg of the Austrian league and will not return for that reason.

2015-16 breakdown: Take away those five guys and the Winterhawks are left with just Heinrich and Schoenborn, both of whom I'd expect them to keep. That leaves an opening which I would expect them to go looking for a defencemen to plunk into.

UPDATE: I want to revise my Portland prediction - at the time I originally wrote the above, I overlooked that Caleb Jones and Jack Dougherty were joining the Hawks this year. Based on those additions, they do not need a defenceman anymore and so I would expect them to use their overage opening on adding a forward.



Prince Albert Raiders:

Last year's 19 year olds: Raymond Grewal (D), Jesse Lees (D), Craig Leverton (F), Mackenze Stewart (D), Jordan Tkatch (F), Hunter Warner (D)

Not returning: Grewal has been waived. Stewart has signed an NHL contract with the Canucks and presumably will be moving on to the AHL although I would not be in the least bit surprised to see him returned to the WHL for an overage season.

2015-16 breakdown: Lees, Leverton, Tkatch, Warner, and (maybe) Stewart for three spots. Warner had a tough year last year, cut short early by season-ending injury but I'd expect him back for sure, same with Lees. With Warner, Lees, Yorke, and Guhle here, there honestly isn't even room on this team's blueline for Stewart if he did return....when was the last time a WHL team waived an NHL-signed overager?

Up front it comes down to Leverton or Tkatch for the 3rd overage spot. I like Tkatch's game but I think I have to go with Leverton.




Prince George Cougars:

Last year's 19 year olds: Tomas Andrlik (D), Kirk Bear (D), Joseph Carvalho (D), Josh Connolly (D), Aaron Macklin (F), David Soltes (F), Chase Witala (F)

Not returning: Andrlik has signed with HC Plzen in the Czech Republic, while Soltes has signed with HC Kosice in Slovakia and neither will be back. Connolly has apparently decided to go to university and not play as an overager, although nothing has been officially announced there.

2015-16 breakdown: I believe Bear has been released although no confirmation. Either way he won't be on the team. It's Carvalho, Macklin, and Witala right now, but I don't see Macklin being there when the dust settles. Wouldn't surprise me if they were in the market for one of the overage goaltenders available.




Red Deer Rebels:

Last year's 19 year olds: Kayle Doetzel (D), Scott Feser (F), Connor Gay (F),  Wyatt Johnson (F), Presten Kopeck (F)

Not returning: Gay was dealt to Saskatoon this offseason, while Feser was dealt to Swift Current.

2015-16 breakdown: Rebels have already settled on their three for the year, as evidenced by trading Gay and Feser during the offseason. Doetzel, Johnson, and Kopeck are your guys.




Regina Pats:

Last year's 19 year olds: Taylor Cooper (F), Carter Hansen (D), Daniel Wapple (G), Colby Williams (D)

Not returning: Hansen has been waived.

2015-16 breakdown: Cooper, Wapple, and Williams are all they've got after they waived Hansen. Pretty good trio there too so let's go with it.




Saskatoon Blades:

Last year's 19 year olds: Kolton Dixon (D), Amil Krupic (D), Isaac Schacher (D), Nick Zajac (F)

Not returning: Krupic was released.

New faces: Mitchell Wheaton (D) was acquired from Kelowna in a trade, while Connor Gay (F) came from Red Deer in a trade.

2015-16 breakdown: It would seem likely that Gay and Wheaton are there to stay, with the team having traded for them. They could really use more experienced defencemen so it would seem likely that either Dixon or Schacher would be the third guy but neither of those guys would likely crack the roster of any other team in the league. Could mean they keep Zajac up front for his leadership there even though defence is a more pressing need. Or they could trade for another overage defenceman.




Seattle Thunderbirds:

Last year's 19 year olds: Jared Hauf (D), Cory Millette (F),  Jerret Smith (D), Shea Theodore (D)

Not returning: Millette was dispatched to Lethbridge in a trade. Theodore has an NHL contract in his pocket and will be off to the AHL.

New faces: Jamal Watson (F), acquired from Lethbridge in the Millette deal.

2015-16 breakdown: right now they're looking at Hauf, Smith, and Watson and that looks good to me. Defence is the area of greatest need so keeping two experienced vets like Hauf and Smith is a smart move. Watson's a good character guy to add to a skilled forward corps. Only question IMO is whether goaltending is settled with Burman/Flodell or do they need to entertain the possibility of an overage goaltender? Won't know that until the season gets going though.




Spokane Chiefs:

Last year's 19 year olds: Nick Charif (D), Jason Fram (D), Adam Helewka (F), Garret Hughson (G), Devon McAndrews (F), Blair Oneschuk (F), Riley Whittingham (F)

Not returning: Charif has opted to go to university (U. Western Ontario) rather than play in the WHL as an overager, so he is gone.

2015-16 breakdown: From the remaining six, Helewka and Fram are very easy no-brainer picks here. The third one is a little tougher but probably comes down to Whittingham vs. Hughson - which in turn means McAndrews and Oneschuk are probably headed out of the league. The case between Whittingham and Hughson pretty much comes down to (IMO) whether the Chiefs think 18 year old Tyson Verhelst is ready to assume the #1 goaltender role, and do they have another option for a backup goaltender if the answer to the first question is Yes. Personally, I think the answer to both questions is No, and therefore Hughson is going to be the 3rd overager. Whittingham may find another home in the league though.




Swift Current Broncos:

Last year's 19 year olds: Landon Bow (G), Griffin Foulk (D), Dillon Heatherington (D), Brett Lernout (D), Tanner LeSann (F), Zac Mackay (F), Jay Merkley (F), Ayrton Nikkel (D), Linden Penner (F)

Not returning: Heatherington (Columbus) and Lernout (Montreal) have NHL contracts and will be moving on to the pros. LeSann, Nikkel, and Penner have all been released. Merkley has opted to go to university (U. Lethbridge) rather than play as an overager. And Mackay has retired.

New faces: Scott Feser (F) was acquired from Red Deer in a trade.

2015-16 breakdown: Bow, Foulk, and Feser is all the Broncos have for this year despite that huge list of 19 year olds from last year. I really don't know that Foulk is going to be there, because there's sure to be better options available from teams that have surpluses. Bow and Feser are pretty good bets for spots though.




Tri-City Americans:

Last year's 19 year olds: Parker Bowles (F), Eric Comrie (G), Justin Gutierrez (F),  Beau McCue (F), Tyler Morrison (D), Brian Williams (F)

Not returning: Gutierrez was traded to Lethbridge. Comrie has an NHL contract (Winnipeg) and will be off to the pro ranks.

2015-16 breakdown: Bowles, McCue, Morrison, and Williams are the final four here. The Ams have a lot of 18 & 19 year old forwards so they probably aren't going to go with three overage forwards, which means Morrison probably makes the cut while one of Bowles, McCue, and Williams gets moved. If I had to guess, I'd say Williams might be the odd man out?




Vancouver Giants:

Last year's 19 year olds: Arvin Atwal (D), Mason Geertsen (D), Jackson Houck (F), Carter Popoff (F)

Not returning: Atwal was traded to Lethbridge in the offseason. Geertsen has an NHL contract with Colorado and so he will be in the AHL.

New faces: Taylor Crunk (F) was claimed off waivers from Victoria.

2015-16 breakdown: Houck, Popoff, and Crunk are the only three the Giants have at the moment. Houck and Popoff are a good pair but I don't for the life of me see why they were interested in Crunk, who is not your traditional top-six forward teams usually want their overage forward to be. And there will be guys like that available.....so will the Giants stick with Crunk, or upgrade?




Victoria Royals:

Last year's 19 year olds: Greg Chase (F), Taylor Crunk (F),  Logan Fisher (F), Alex Forsberg (F), Jack Palmer (F), Justin Paulic (G), Coleman Vollrath (G)

Not returning: Crunk and Palmer were waived (Crunk was claimed by Vancouver). Chase has an NHL contract with the Oilers and should be off to the AHL. Paulic has apparently decided to attend University of Manitoba rather than play as an overager.

2015-16 breakdown: Fisher, Forsberg, and Vollrath are the only three guys right now, it would appear. Not sure if Fisher is going to be there when all is said and done, but Forsberg and Vollrath are a good first two choices.