2014 bantam draft order

The 2014 WHL bantam draft goes tomorrow. Taking a stab at putting together the draft order here, with traded picks. Corrections welcome....I will update this as corrections / new info fills in the blanks.

First Round:

#	Team	From	Trade Details
1	Brandon	Saskatoon	from the Brenden Walker deal, May 3, 2012
2	Lethbridge
3	Kamloops
4	Moose Jaw
5	Prince George
6	Red Deer
7	Tri-City
8	Vancouver
9	Prince Albert
10	Vancouver	Brandon via Saskatoon	in Nathan Burns deal, Nov 2/12 (Saskatoon acquired from Brandon due to Brandon's option to swap first round picks with Saskatoon in Brenden Walker deal, May 3, 2012)
11	Kootenay
12	Swift Current
13	Regina
14	Spokane
15	Everett
16	Seattle
17	Medicine Hat
18	Victoria
19	Portland	Calgary	for Adam Tambellini, January 8, 2014
20	Edmonton
21	FORFEITED	Portland	Portland forfeits this pick due to player benefit violations, Nov 28/12
22	Kelowna

Second Round:

23	Lethbridge
24	Kamloops
25	Saskatoon	Saskatoon via Vancouver	for Dalton Thrower, May 27/13 (Vancouver had acquired in Owen Sillinger/pick swap deal, May 2/13)
26	Moose Jaw
27	Prince George
28	Lethbridge	Tri-City	for Phil Tot, Aug 14/12
29	Vancouver
30	Saskatoon	Prince Albert	in Valcourt/Busenius deal, Dec 27/13
31	Red Deer
32	Brandon
33	Kootenay
34	Saskatoon	Swift Current	in Burns/Sanvido trade, Jan 1/14
35	Regina
36	Spokane
37	Red Deer	Everett via Portland	in the Mat Dumba deal, Dec 10, 2013 (Portland had acquired from Everett for signing of Everett G.M. Garry Davidson. )
38	Seattle
39	Medicine Hat
40	Victoria
41	Calgary	Calgary via Prince Albert	in Riddle/pick swap, Jan 7/14 (Prince Albert originally obtained from Calgary in Brooks/Winther trade, Dec 27/13)
42	Vancouver	Edmonton	for Blake Orban, Jan 2/14
43	Lethbridge	Portland	in Corbin Boes deal, January 9, 2014
44	Vancouver	Kelowna	for Marek Tvrdon, January 8, 2014

Third Round:

45	Tri-City	Lethbridge	for Ty Rimmer, May 3, 2012
46	Red Deer	Kamloops	for Tyson Ness, Sept 17/13
47	Kamloops	Saskatoon via Red Deer	in Bellerive/Sterzer swap, January 9, 2014 (Red Deer had acquired from Saskatoon in Kambeitz/Stockl deal, Oct 8/12)
48	Spokane	Moose Jaw	for Todd Fiddler, May 2/13
49	Everett	Prince George via Edmonton	in Reid Petryk deal, October 1, 2013. (Edmonton had acquired from Prince George for Klarc Wilson, Jan 9/13)
50	Tri-City
51	Vancouver
52	Prince Albert
53	Saskatoon	Red Deer	in Sutter/Pochuk deal, Jun 13/13 (Red Deer had traded this pick to Vancouver for Matt Bellerive, Sep 24/12, then reacquired from Vancouver for Joel Hamilton, May 8/13)
54	Brandon		(pick was traded by Brandon to Saskatoon in Dziurzynski deal but returned to Brandon in Walker deal)
55	Kamloops	Kootenay	in Bozon/Cross/Shirley/Thomas trade, October 9, 2013
56	Medicine Hat	Swift Current via Lethbridge and Moose Jaw	in Spencer Jensen deal, Jan 3/14 (Moose Jaw had acquired from Lethbridge for Tyler Bell, Nov 12, 2013. Lethbridge had acquired from Swift Current in Merkley/Derko deal, Jan 7/13)
57	Victoria	Regina	in Pilton/Hannoun deal, Sep 13/12
58	Spokane
59	Everett
60	Saskatoon	Seattle	for Adam Kambeitz, Jan 10/13
61	Medicine Hat
62	Moose Jaw	Victoria	for Travis Brown, Jan 6/14
63	Calgary
64	Edmonton
65	Portland
66	Vancouver	Kelowna	for Jackson Whistle, Sep 7/12

Fourth Round:

67	Lethbridge
68	Calgary	Kamloops	for Rob Trzonkowski, May 23/12
69	Saskatoon
70	Tri-City	Moose Jaw	for Jordan Messier, Oct 9/12
71	Spokane	Prince George	for Mac Engel, Oct 14/12
72	Medicine Hat	Tri-City	for Devon McAndrews, October 1, 2012
73	Kelowna	Vancouver	for Tanner Moar and Stewart Coyle, Sep 17/12
74	Prince Albert
75	Red Deer
76	Brandon
77	Kootenay
78	Lethbridge	Swift Current via Seattle	in Maxwell/Holub deal, January 9, 2014 (Seattle had acquired from Swift Current for Connor Sanvido and Andrew Johnson, August 1/13)
79	Calgary	Regina	for Jesse Zgraggen, November 3, 2013
80	Spokane
81	Kamloops	Everett	for Josh Caron, Nov 29/11
82	Everett	Seattle	for Griffin Foulk, Nov 23/12
83	Calgary	Medicine Hat via Everett and Prince George	for Peter Kosterman, September 11, 2013 (Prince George had acquired from Everett as conditional pick in Erricson/Khaira deal May 3, 2012; Everett had acquired from Medicine Hat in the Miles Koules deal, Jan 10, 2012)
84	Lethbridge	Victoria	for Axel Blomqvist, November 20, 2013
85	Portland	Calgary	for Joe Mahon, Sep 22/13
86	Edmonton
87	Portland
88	Kelowna

Fifth Round:

89	Lethbridge
90	Tri-City	Kamloops	in Sam Grist deal, Oct 9/12
91	Saskatoon	Saskatoon via Prince Albert	in Valcourt/Busenius deal, Dec 27/13. (Prince Albert had previously acquired from Saskatoon for Shayne Gwinner, Dec 3/12)
92	Moose Jaw
93	Prince George
94	Tri-City
95	Calgary	Vancouver	in Trevor Cheek deal, Sep 25/12
96	Prince Albert
97	Red Deer
98	Lethbridge	Brandon	for Nick Buonassisi, Aug 26/12
99	Kootenay
100	Swift Current
101	Regina
102	Seattle	Spokane via Brandon	for Taylor Green, Aug 15/13 (Brandon had acquired from Spokane in Bertaggia/Kalus deal, Jan 10/13)
103	Everett
104	Seattle
105	Everett	Medicine Hat via Tri-City	for Ryan Chynoweth, Oct 9/12. (Tri-City had acquired from Medicine Hat for Derek Ryckman, Sept 10/12)
106	Brandon	Victoria	for Jack Palmer, November 6, 2013
107	Everett	Calgary	for Linden Penner, October 5, 2013
108	Edmonton
109	Brandon	Portland via Victoria	for Jack Palmer, November 6, 2013 (Victoria had acquired from Portland in swap of picks at 2013 bantam draft, May 2/13)
110	Moose Jaw	Kelowna	for Brett Lyon, Jan 10/12

Sixth Round:

111	Lethbridge
112	Victoria	Kamloops	for Luke Harrison, November 19, 2013
113	Saskatoon
114	Vancouver	Moose Jaw	for Scott Cooke, Nov 19, 2013
115	Prince George
116	Tri-City
117	Edmonton	Vancouver	for Tristan Sieben, Sep 17/12
118	Medicine Hat	Prince Albert via Moose Jaw	in Spencer Jensen deal, Jan 3/14 (Moose Jaw had acquired from Prince Albert for Shayne Gwinner, July 6, 2012)
119	Red Deer
120	Brandon
121	Kelowna	Kootenay	for Zach Franko, January 8, 2014
122	Swift Current
123	Lethbridge	Regina via Everett	for Remi Laurencelle, Jan 4/14 (Everett had acquired from Regina for Tye Hand, Sep 15/12)
124	Spokane
125	Everett
126	Seattle
127	Prince Albert	Medicine Hat	in Busenius/Hart deal, Jan 1/13
128	Everett	Victoria	for Trent Lofthouse, Jan 3/13
129	Calgary
130	Vancouver	Edmonton	for Riley Kieser, July 26/13 (could be Vancouver's own pick (#117) back instead)
131	Portland
132	Kelowna

Seventh Round:

133	Portland	Lethbridge	for Jarrod Schamerhorn, January 10/14
134	Vancouver	Kamloops	in 2013 bantam draft pick swap, May 2/13
135	Saskatoon
136	Moose Jaw
137	Prince George
138	Kootenay	Tri-City	for Jeff Hubic, Nov 27, 2013
139	Vancouver
140	Victoria	Prince Albert	for Dakota Conroy, Sep 27/12
141	Prince Albert	Red Deer via Saskatoon	in Craig/Dea/Johnston deal, January 8/14 (Saskatoon had acquired from Red Deer in Sutter/Pochuk deal, Jun 13/13)
142	Red Deer	Brandon	for Chad Robinson, October 22, 2012
143	Everett	Kootenay	for Zach McPhee, Nov 2/12
144	Swift Current
145	Regina
146	Spokane
147	Everett
148	Seattle
149	Medicine Hat
150	Victoria
151	Calgary
152	Edmonton
153	Swift Current	Portland via Saskatoon	in Burns/Sanvido deal, January 1, 2014 (Saskatoon had acquired from Portland in Shane McColgan deal, Jul 3/13)
154	Kamloops	Kelowna via Prince Albert	in Chevaldave/Kryski deal, Jul 10/13. (Kamloops had acquired from Kelowna for 2012 2nd round import pick, Jun 27/12)

Eighth Round:

155	Lethbridge
156	Vancouver	Kamloops	in 2013 bantam draft pick swap, May 2/13
157	Saskatoon
158	Moose Jaw
159	Prince George
160	Tri-City
161	Victoria	Vancouver	for Trent Lofthouse, October 16, 2013
162	Prince Albert
163	Red Deer
164	Brandon
165	Kootenay
166	Swift Current
167	Regina
168	Spokane
169	Everett
170	Seattle
171	Medicine Hat
172	Lethbridge	Victoria	for Axel Blomqvist, November 20, 2013
173	Calgary
174	Edmonton
175	Portland
176	Kelowna

There are also two trades with unresolved compensation - Medicine Hat traded defenceman Garrett Haar to Portland on July 29, 2013 for a conditional 2014 draft pick. The round of that pick has never been disclosed but safe to assume that one of the picks Portland holds above has been moved to Medicine Hat instead. I would guess it's probably one of their two 4th round picks but that's just a guess.

Also, Red Deer owes a draft pick to Victoria for the trade which sent Kolten Dixon to the Rebels on September 26, 2013. The year AND round of that pick was never disclosed so it might not even be a 2014 pick.

Draft lottery and tiebreaker game

So for the first time since 2008-09, the WHL will have a tiebreaker game to determine a playoff spot. Red Deer and Prince Albert have finished tied for the 8th spot in the East and so the Raiders will have to hop on the bus and head to Red Deer for a one-game showdown tomorrow night to determine who gets the playoff spot and whose season is over. The playoff prize for the winner is getting to drive 90 minutes north and face Edmonton in the first round of the playoffs starting Saturday night.

The tiebreaker game is only taking place because Red Deer beat Edmonton 5-0 yesterday, in Edmonton. An outcome that would seem highly unlikely in most cases, until you notice that Edmonton scratched all their best players and started their backup goaltender as well. It's almost like Edmonton WANTED to lose, because a loss would force their two potential playoff opponents - the Rebels and Raiders - to play a high-stakes game on Tuesday. What could be better than having your two potential opponents a little more tired and, yes, perhaps a little more banged up?

I know some people think the Oil Kings are ripping off their paying fans by healthy-scratching one's best players in meaningless games, but I think very few fans would actually complain about this. If you're a fan, probably what you care most about is playoff success and having the most healthy, rested core group you can have is only going to help that. And besides, it's also often fun to get a look at some of the lesser-known players and future stars of your team, right. And giving them more ice time - even if only for one game - is good for their development down the road too.

Next item of business for the WHL, after that tiebreaker game, is the draft lottery. The lottery is usually held the first day or two after the conclusion of the regular season but I believe in this case they will have to wait until Wednesday or Thursday to hold the lottery, because whichever of Red Deer / Prince Albert loses that tiebreaker game, that losing team is going to be the final lottery team. So I'd look for the draft lottery on Wednesday or Thursday morning.

As always, the draft lottery will consist of the six non-playoff teams (in reverse order of points: Lethbridge, Kamloops, Saskatoon, Moose Jaw, Prince George, and Prince Albert/Red Deer) and each team will get a number of bingo balls in a bingo machine - Lethbridge as the lowest placing team gets 6 balls, Kamloops gets 5, and so on. One ball will will be drawn and that team gets to move up 2 spots in the draft order. So only the bottom three teams (Lethbridge, Kamloops, and Saskatoon) have a chance at winning the #1 spot. The best that Moose Jaw, at #4, could do would be to move up to #2 - in which case Lethbridge would keep the #1 pick. Etc, etc.

So the odds of getting the #1 pick are:

Lethbridge: 57.1%
Kamloops: 23.8%
Saskatoon: 19.1%

And one last note, Saskatoon's pick does not belong to Saskatoon - Brandon has the right to swap 1st round picks with the Blades thanks to the Brendan Walker trade in summer 2012. Since the Wheat Kings are certainly going to do that, the Wheat Kings will get that Blades pick, whether it's #1, #3, or #4.

Saskatoon will get Brandon's pick, but they traded that pick to Vancouver for Nathan Burns a year ago, so even after their trying season the Blades will not have a first round pick to show for it....

2013-14 playoff races

Every year I like to take a look at the playoff races in the WHL and kind of count down what it takes for teams to clinch playoff spots, home ice advantage, etc. Got a late start on this post this year but better late than never...

Eastern Conference playoff races:

1) Edmonton vs Calgary for 1st/2nd place in the Central division and 1st/3rd seeds in the Conference.

Calgary leads the Oil Kings by two points but the Oil Kings have two games in hand. Should be an interesting finish in this race as they both have fairly similar schedules remaining with four game roads trips through the Eastern division.

Remaining schedules:
Edmonton (9): vs Saskatoon, @ Swift Current, @ Regina, @ Brandon, @ Moose Jaw, vs Kootenay, @ Medicine Hat, @ Red Deer, vs Red Deer
Calgary (7): @ Brandon, @ Moose Jaw, @ Prince Albert, @ Saskatoon, vs Lethbridge, @ Kootenay, vs Kootenay

Calgary's "magic number" to win this race: 8 wins or Edmonton losses.

2) Regina vs Swift Current for 1st/2nd place in the Eastern division and #2 seed in the Conference.

Regina has a 7 point lead which, with only 7 games left for the Broncos, will be tough for Swift to overcome as long as the Pats don't go into the tank. 

Remaining schedules:
Regina (6): vs Edmonton, @ Lethbridge, @ Kootenay, vs Prince Albert, vs Brandon, @ Brandon
Swift Current (7): vs Brandon, vs Edmonton, @ Red Deer, @ Lethbridge, vs Saskatoon, vs Moose Jaw, @ Moose Jaw

Regina's magic number to win this race: 3.5 wins or Broncos losses.

3) Medicine Hat vs Kootenay for #4 in the Conference and home ice in the first round of the playoffs.

This one is worth watching. It seems likely at this point that these two will meet in the first round of the playoffs so this race will determine who gets home ice advantage. The Tigers have a 7 point lead but the Ice have a game in hand that they can use to cut the lead to 5 points.

Remaining schedules:
Medicine Hat (6): vs Red Deer, @ Kootenay, vs Red Deer, vs Edmonton, @ Lethbridge, vs Lethbridge
Kootenay (7): vs Red Deer, vs Medicine Hat, vs Regina, @ Edmonton, @ Red Deer, vs Calgary, @ Calgary

Medicine Hat's magic number to win this race: 4.5 wins or Ice losses.

4) Red Deer vs Prince Albert (and maybe Brandon too!) for the last playoff spot.

Right now this race is principally between the Rebels and Raiders as they currently occupy spots #8 and #9. Brandon could drop into the #8 or #9 spot with a losing streak but for now we'll focus on Raiders vs Rebels here. Rebels have a two point lead but the Raiders have a game in hand. Very close.

Remaining schedules:
Prince Albert (7): vs Moose Jaw, vs Calgary, vs Brandon, @ Moose Jaw, @ Regina, vs Saskatoon, @ Saskatoon
Red Deer (7): @ Kootenay, @ Medicine Hat, vs Swift Current, @ Medicine Hat, vs Kootenay, vs Edmonton, @ Edmonton

Red Deer's magic number to win this race: 7.5 wins or Raiders losses.

Other Eastern Conference notes:

 - Edmonton, Calgary, Medicine Hat, and Regina have clinched playoff spots.
 - Calgary has clinched home ice in the first round of the playoffs
 - Lethbridge, Saskatoon, and Moose Jaw are mathematically eliminated from the post-season.

Numbers to clinch playoff spots:

 - Kootenay will clinch with 1 win or Raiders loss
 - Swift Current will clinch with 3.5 wins or Raiders losses
 - Brandon will clinch with 5 wins or Raiders losses
 - Red Deer will clinch with 7.5 wins or Raiders losses
 - Prince Albert will clinch with 7.5 wins or Rebels losses

Other numbers:

 - Edmonton to clinch home ice in the first round: 0.5 wins or Ice losses

Playoff matchups if the season ended today:

#1 Edmonton Oil Kings vs #8 Red Deer Rebels
#2 Regina Pats vs #7 Brandon Wheat Kings
#3 Calgary Hitmen vs #6 Swift Current Broncos
#4 Medicine Hat Tigers vs #5 Kootenay Ice


Western Conference playoff races:

1) Kelowna vs Portland for #1/#2 seed in the Conference.

Kelowna has a 7 point lead but Portland has won 21 in a row. The Rockets need to play their butts off to keep ahead of the juggernaut getting ever-closer in their rearview mirror. Could be an exciting race to the finish in this one.

Remaining schedules:
Kelowna (8): @ Vancouver, @ Everett, vs Spokane, vs Tri-City, vs Victoria, @ Kamloops, @ Vancouver, vs Vancouver
Portland (8):  @ Seattle, @ Tri-City, vs Seattle, vs Vancouver, vs Tri-City, @ Seattle, vs Seattle, vs Everett

Kelowna's "magic number" to win this race: 4.5 wins or Winterhawks losses.

2) Kelowna vs Victoria for the B.C. division title and guaranteed top-two seed.

A race in name only, Kelowna has a 14 point lead. It will be almost impossible for Victoria to run them down. 

Remaining schedules:
Kelowna (8): @ Vancouver, @ Everett, vs Spokane, vs Tri-City, vs Victoria, @ Kamloops, @ Vancouver, vs Vancouver
Victoria (7): @ Prince George, vs Kamloops, vs Kamloops, @ Kelowna, @ Vancouver, vs Everett, @ Everett

Kelowna's magic number to win this race: 0.5 wins or Royals losses.

3) Portland vs Seattle for the U.S. division title and guaranteed top-two seed.

Portland has a 17 point lead and have those 21 wins in a row. This is a race the way Usain Bolt vs me in the 100m is a "race".

Remaining schedules:
Portland (8): @ Seattle, @ Tri-City, vs Seattle, vs Vancouver, vs Tri-City, @ Seattle, vs Seattle, vs Everett
Seattle (9): vs Portland, vs Everett, @ Portland, vs Everett, vs Vancouver, vs Spokane, vs Portland, @ Portland, @ Tri-City

Portland's magic number to win this race: 0.5 wins or Thunderbirds losses.

4) Spokane vs Seattle for #4 in the Conference and home ice in the first round of the playoffs.

Seattle has a 4 point lead and a game in gand. Shaping up to be a likely first round playoff matchup here (they are 4th and 5th, 10 points back of 3rd and 5 points up on 6th) so the winner of this race will get home ice advantage of course....

Remaining schedules:
Seattle (9): vs Portland, vs Everett, @ Portland, vs Everett, vs Vancouver, vs Spokane, vs Portland, @ Portland, @ Tri-City
Spokane (8): vs Tri-City, @ Kelowna, @ Prince George, @ Prince George, @ Seattle, vs Everett, vs Tri-City, @ Tri-City

Seattle's magic number to win this race: 6 wins or Chiefs losses

5) Prince George vs Tri-City for the last playoff spot.

It looks close if you only look at points - Prince George is only two points back of the Americans for that last playoff spot. But the Americans have three games in hand and with the Cougars only having five games left to play, they're close to powerless here unless the Americans squander those three games in hand. The Cougars do have a favourable home-heavy schedule. 

Remaining schedules:
Tri-City (8): @ Spokane, vs Portland, vs Everett, @ Kelowna, @ Portland, @ Spokane, vs Spokane, vs Tri-City
Prince George (5): vs Victoria, vs Spokane, vs Spokane, @ Kamloops, vs Kamloops

Tri-City's magic number to win this race: 4.5 wins or Cougars losses.


Other Western Conference notes:

 - Kelowna, Portland, Victoria, Seattle, Spokane, and Everett have clinched playoff spots.
 - Kelowna and Portland have clinched home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs at least.
 - Kamloops is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

Numbers to clinch playoff spots:

 - Vancouver will clinch with 0.5 wins or Cougars losses
 - Tri-City will clinch with 4.5 wins or Cougars losses
 - Prince George will clinch with 9.5 wins or Americans losses

Other numbers:

 - Victoria to clinch home ice in the first round: 1 win or Chiefs loss

Playoff matchups if the season ended today:

#1 Kelowna Rockets vs #8 Tri-City Americans
#2 Portland Winterhawks vs #7 Vancouver Giants
#3 Victoria Royals vs #6 Everett Silvertips
#4 Seattle Thunderbirds vs #5 Spokane Chiefs



LAST UPDATED: After games of February 28

Trade deadline early returns

It's been about three and a half weeks since the WHL trade deadline on January 10, and most teams have played about 10 games - give or take one or two - since the deadline. With that in mind, here's a look at how teams have done since the deadline - records, plus goals for/against, win% since the deadline, and the difference between their win% since the deadline and what it was prior to the deadline - ie, are they playing better or worse since then.

Some interesting results for sure.

	GP	W	L	OTL	SL	PTS	GF	GA	Win %	Diff %
Portland Winterhawks	11	10	0	0	1	21	54	15	0.955	0.239
Edmonton Oil Kings	11	10	1	0	0	20	56	25	0.909	0.185
Kootenay Ice	8	6	1	0	1	13	36	22	0.813	0.273
Seattle Thunderbirds	10	8	2	0	0	16	25	18	0.800	0.143
Kelowna Rockets	12	9	2	0	1	19	54	32	0.792	-0.038
Red Deer Rebels	10	7	2	0	1	15	35	24	0.750	0.190
Victoria Royals	9	6	2	0	1	13	28	20	0.722	0.056
Tri-City Americans	11	7	3	0	1	15	30	22	0.682	0.143
Spokane Chiefs	12	6	3	3	0	15	31	38	0.625	-0.035
Brandon Wheat Kings	10	5	3	1	1	12	40	36	0.600	0.020
Regina Pats	10	6	4	0	0	12	36	28	0.600	0.061
Prince George Cougars	11	6	4	0	1	13	45	53	0.591	0.148
Vancouver Giants	11	5	4	1	1	12	41	41	0.545	-0.012
Medicine Hat Tigers	10	5	5	0	0	10	35	28	0.500	-0.122
Swift Current Broncos	10	4	4	1	1	10	33	31	0.500	-0.069
Everett Silvertips	11	3	6	2	0	8	28	46	0.364	-0.205
Calgary Hitmen	10	3	6	1	0	7	31	38	0.350	-0.330
Prince Albert Raiders	10	2	7	0	1	5	19	41	0.250	-0.240
Saskatoon Blades	9	2	7	0	0	4	20	41	0.222	-0.085
Lethbridge Hurricanes	10	2	8	0	0	4	15	54	0.200	-0.036
Kamloops Blazers	11	1	9	0	1	3	30	52	0.136	-0.128
Moose Jaw Warriors	9	0	7	0	2	2	17	37	0.111	-0.229

The first thing that jumps out at me is that Portland (followed closely by Edmonton) have been pretty much unstoppable since the deadline. Portland has netted 21 out of a possible 22 points since the deadline and are outscoring their opposition at a 4:1 pace. Edmonton is very close behind with 20 out of a possible 22 points, although less dominant in the GF:GA department in their wins. 

Both those teams were pretty good before the deadline though - so the most improved team since the deadline is Kootenay. The Ice are playing .813 hockey in 8 games since January 10, after being a .540 team before that date - an improvement of .273. 

At the other end of the spectrum is Calgary, who made several significant moves leading up to the deadline but are a terrible .350 pace since, after being .680 before - a drop of -.330. Prince Albert is another team that has dropped off since the deadline, playing .250 since after playing .490 before the deadline but making several moves intended to improve their team. I guess sometimes it just takes time to gel after making moves and the Hitmen and Raiders haven't found that chemistry yet.

Saskatoon, Lethbridge, Kamloops, and Moose Jaw have been the worst teams since the deadline, although they were the worst teams BEFORE the deadline too so not too much has changed there. 

Lists of traded picks

As the trade deadline nears, for anyone wondering what draft picks their favorite team (or ANY team, I guess) has available to trade, I've tried to compile that info based on what the WHL and the teams tell us about the picks involved in trades.

So, if you're wondering....

List of traded 2014 picks

List of traded 2015 picks

List of traded 2016 picks

There's also quick links to all three of those pages over on the right side of the blog, so you can easily find the pages even after this one has moved down out of sight.

Keep in mind that my lists are only as good as the info provided about trades. As such, any corrections or additional info is always welcomed, if you have any or spot any errors.

Trade deadline week

The WHL trade deadline arrives four days from now - this Friday January 10 at 3:00pm Mountain time if past years are any indication. (I can't find an official notice from the league but I would be surprised if the deadline was different this year)

So with that in mind, some idle blathering about what certain teams may or may not do in the next 96 hours...

First, who are the sellers? It's easy to identify buyers - usually the teams at or near the top of the standings - but determining sellers is harder due to the factors teams have to consider. Like,

1. 1. do they still have a realistic hope of making the playoffs? If so, is making the playoffs and getting at least two home gates very important to them? For some teams a couple home playoff games means the difference between losing money and breaking even or showing a profit, so that may factor in. 
2. What's the projected roster for the team look like for next year? Teams with good 19 year olds who are likely to return as overagers next year may not want to part with those players because they are potentially leaders on next year's team which could turn things around. Alternately, are there glaring-looking gaps in next year's roster that trading a veteran right now might help to address? 
3. What's the trade market looking like right now? If I trade player X, can I get a return on him which makes sense to my team? Even if Player X is a slam-dunk to be in the NHL next year, it doesn't mean trading him for a bucket of practice pucks this week is a good thing. He has value to my team to stay here and play the rest of the year here - aiding my other players in their development and entertaining my paying fans. So it has to be a worthwhile trade. 
4. What's the strength of the draft this year look like? If you're thinking of trading a player for draft picks, the value of those may change depending if the draft is a strong draft or a weak one. If the draft is considered several rounds deep then acquiring mid to late round picks are more valuable than in years where the draft is crap and the quality of a 5th rounder is indistinguishable from an 8th rounder. Higher picks also have less value in a strong draft since even without a 1st round pick you can still get good players in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. Higher picks in a weak draft are more valuable since not having one might mean you don't get an impact player in a particular age group. 

Etc, etc....but with that being said, I think a look at the standings right now reveals four teams who are very likely to miss the playoffs this year and thus are almost certainly sellers: Kamloops in the West, and Lethbridge, Saskatoon, and Moose Jaw in the East. Some of those teams (Lethbridge, Saskatoon) have already started selling players but I would be surprised if the others aren't also listening carefully to offers. Kamloops is 16 points out of a playoff spot in the West and since 16 points is 2/3 of their current season total it seems daunting to think they still have a chance. Moose Jaw is only 12 points out of the playoffs in the East so they could make more of an argument for having a chance to make it, but the teams in 7th & 8th (Kootenay and Prince Albert) also have 3 games in hand AND have shown all indications of being buyers this year. It won't be easy for the Warriors to catch up.

Teams on the bubble right now - I'd say Tri-City and Prince George in the West, and Red Deer, Prince Albert, Kootenay, Regina, and Brandon in the East - are teams that COULD make the playoffs but aren't comfortably there yet. These teams are the ones that probably have to weigh the pros and cons the most. How much can they give up and still make the playoffs? Or do they want to try to add a piece and maybe move up the standings, try to get a round or two deeper in the postseason? As I said above, I doubt Kootenay and Prince Albert will sellers, I see them as buyers. The Ice already gave up their 2015 1st round bantam pick in a trade (for Tim Bozon) and could very well lose superstar Sam Reinhart to the NHL next year, two things which to my view make them already pretty much all-in on winning this season.

Contenders - in the East, Calgary, Edmonton, and Swift Current are atop the heap and have already made some moves indicating they intend to stay there and attempt to win a title. In the West, CHL #1 Kelowna is an obvious one and really, the West is so wide open after that with 9 points separating the next 6 teams it's not a stretch to say they are all potential buyers. Every one of those teams could believe that just one more player is the key to getting to the conference final or even to the WHL final. Given their offensive superstars I think Portland is a lock to be a buyer this year and go for back-to-back titles. Victoria is actually #2 in the conference in points right now, do they think they need just one or two players to best Kelowna or Portland in the postseason? Spokane already traded a veteran defenceman for a 16 year old rookie forward, does that mean they are prepared to drop back in the race? Etc, etc....it's an exciting time in that conference right now.

Some things I think might happen by the deadline....I emphasize that ALL of these notes are based on nothing more than my speculation. Please don't read this and say, "OMG! Team X is trading for Player Y!". It's speculation. Nothing more.

1. I'd be surprised if Lethbridge didn't trade '94 defenceman Nick Walters. I think he might be the most appealing defenceman on the trade block this year. He is likely to be a pro next year so the incentive for Lethbridge to hang onto him is small, plus he would fetch a good price.
2. Same goes for '94 defenceman Travis Brown in Moose Jaw. Likely to play pro next year and has good value to a contender, so the Warriors are sure to be tempted to move him.
3. Overage defenceman Graeme Craig, with his Memorial Cup experience, will likely have some teams calling the Blades. 
4. Ditto for overage defenceman Sam Grist of the Blazers. Craig and Grist are both the type of big, warrior type defencemen contenders can always use for playoff runs. Their overage status is the only thing which would hamper deals for them IMO, since contenders need to either have an overage spot open or be willing to move one of their existing ones. 
5. Moose Jaw probably shops one or more of their 3 19 year old forwards - Scott Cooke, Tanner Eberle, and Jack Rodewald. Gritty-type players who could bolster a contending team's 3rd & 4th lines. 
6. I suspect Lethbridge will be looking to move overage goaltender Corbin Boes. Bringing in 19 year old Teagan Sacher seems to support that Boes could be had by a contender. 
7. Portland, Seattle, and Kootenay have open overage spots. The Hawks and Thunderbirds might both be interested in Boes. If Portland doesn't fill their open spot with Boes, then one of those overage defencemen - Grist or Craig - are good fits there too on a team with much offence but a shaky blueline group. Of course, if they land Mat Dumba maybe they don't need to tinker any more with the blueline.
8. Kelowna has historically not swung major trade deadline deals. Doesn't mean they won't this year though, but they don't really have any glaring holes so if they do anything, I think it's smaller deals for depth. A forward? ("Please hold for Alan Millar....")
9. Victoria is the best defensive team in the WHL. Is one more good offensive weapon the edge they need to take down the Rockets or Hawks in a 7 game series? Are there any of those on the market? Any that aren't overage? (Is Troy Bourke available? Is Chandler Stephenson?)
10. I think Calgary definitely adds one more defenceman, they are a bit thin there with Jaynen Rissling hurt and can use the depth. Rissling is expected back so Calgary probably isn't interested in an overage defenceman but I can see them interested in Walters or Brown. Or a less-obvious guy. (Hamonic? Bell?)
11. Edmonton I think is set on defence and in net, so if they do anything it might be up front. No offence to Riley Kieser, but as an overager there are better ones available to Edmonton if they want to upgrade. Fioretti? Leier? Local boy Mitch Holmberg???
12. Swift Current is in the same boat as Edmonton in that their defence and goaltending is probably not a concern. Another forward for depth? They are 0-4 against Calgary and 1-1 vs Edmonton this year, how much do they want to gamble on being able to beat the Hitmen or Oil Kings in a playoff series? Are they happy to stand pat and take their chances as they are right now?

WHL prospects at the Macs

The Macs Midget Hockey Tournament people released their schedule and list of invited teams for this year's tournament today. If you don't know what this is, it is one of the biggest AAA midget tournaments of the year and it's held every year from December 26 to January 1 in Calgary. It's a great chance to see many future WHLers going head to head in competition against some of the other best teams from the prairies and even some international teams every year.

If you're interested in following the tournament but can't go to the games in person, you can follow the results at their website, http://www.macstournament.ab.ca

Anyways, if you're interested, here's the list of WHL prospects that will be featured in this year's tournament...I've given the player's position, year of birth, WHL club that holds his rights, and how those rights were acquired by the team:


Battlefords Stars (North Battleford, SK):
*Spencer Bast (F-97) - Kamloops Blazers (Listed player)
Brandon Lesko (F-98) - Calgary Hitmen (2013 10th round pick)
Rylan Toth (G-96) - Red Deer Rebels (Listed player)

* Bast will not participate in the Macs as he will be playing at the World U-17 Challenge at the time

Calgary Buffaloes:
Adam Berg (F-97) - Regina Pats (Listed player)
Brayden Brown (F-97) - Edmonton Oil Kings (Listed player)
Mark Drohan (D-98) - Tri-City Americans (2013 3rd round pick)
Oliver Lester (D-97) - Victoria Royals (2012 9th round pick)
Ryely McKinstry (D-98) - Vancouver Giants (2013 2nd round pick)
Matthew Phillips (F-98) - Victoria Royals (2013 2nd round pick)
Jack Thomas (D-96) - Kootenay Ice (2011 12th round pick)
Logan Thompson (G-97) - Brandon Wheat Kings (2012 6th round pick)
Carsen Twarynski (F-97) - Calgary Hitmen (Listed player)

Calgary Flames:
Carter Czaikowski (D-98) - Portland Winterhawks (2013 6th round pick)
Cole Davis (F-97) - Lethbridge Hurricanes (Listed player)
Aaron Hyman (D-98) - Calgary Hitmen (2013 3rd round pick)
Riley Morris (G-97) - Medicine Hat Tigers (2012 7th round pick)
Mark Rassell (F-97) - Medicine Hat Tigers (Listed player)
Kurtis Rutledge (D-97) - Tri-City Americans (2012 8th round pick)
Evan Tschumi (F-97) - Red Deer Rebels (Listed player)

Calgary Northstars:
Brayden Dunn (F-98) - Victoria Royals (2013 4th round pick)
Josh Logel (F-98) - Red Deer Rebels (2013 7th round pick)
Austin Strand (D-97) - Red Deer Rebels (2012 3rd round pick)
Kyle Yewchuk (D-98) - Edmonton Oil Kings (2013 3rd round pick)

Calgary Royals:
Shane Allan (F-97) - Kootenay Ice (2012 7th round pick)
Logan Ferguson (F-97) - Edmonton Oil Kings (Listed player)
Josh Giacomin (F-97) - Spokane Chiefs (Listed player)
Cole Josefchak (D-97) - Edmonton Oil Kings (Listed player)
Max Lajoie (D-97) - Swift Current Broncos (2012 5th round pick)
Sean Montgomery (F-98) - Prince Albert Raiders (2013 6th round pick)

Cariboo Cougars (Prince George, BC):
Bryan Allbee (D-97) - Kootenay Ice (Listed player)
Chase Dubois (F-98) - Prince George Cougars (Listed player)
Steven Jandric (F-97) - Portland Winterhawks (Listed player)
Jesse Roach (F-97) - Vancouver Giants (2012 2nd round pick)
Colton Thomas (F-98) - Seattle Thunderbirds (2013 8th round pick)

Edmonton Canadian Athletic Club (CAC):
Brayden Burke (F-97) - Red Deer Rebels (2012 7th round pick)
Matthew Dykstra (F-97) - Victoria Royals (2012 4th round pick)
Cole Gammer (F-97) - Tri-City Americans (2012 9th round pick)
Brendan Holterhus (F-97) - Vancouver Giants (Listed player)
Ryan McKinnon (F-97) - Vancouver Giants (Listed player)
Benjamin McLeod (D-97) - Edmonton Oil Kings (Listed player)
Dylan Stewart (F-97) - Prince Albert Raiders (2012 5th round pick)
Eric Szudor (G-97) - Lethbridge Hurricanes (2012 6th round pick)

Edmonton South Side Athletic Club (SSAC):
Justin Greer (D-97) - Portland Winterhawks (2012 4th round pick)
Garan Magnes (F-97) - Edmonton Oil Kings (Listed player)
David Quenneville (D-98) - Medicine Hat Tigers (2013 1st round pick)
Stuart Skinner (G-98) - Lethbridge Hurricanes (2013 1st round pick)
Peter Tomaras (F-98) - Saskatoon Blades (2013 9th round pick)

Leduc Oil Kings:
Noah Gregor (F-98) - Victoria Royals (2013 3rd round pick)
Dalton Hamaliuk (D-98) - Spokane Chiefs (2013 2nd round pick)
Trevor Martin (G-96) - Spokane Chiefs (2011 9th round pick)
Curtis Miske (F-97) - Spokane Chiefs (2012 2nd round pick)
Tristan Starzynski (F-97) - Edmonton Oil Kings (2012 8th round pick)

Lloydminster Bobcats:
Chasetan Braid (F-97) - Saskatoon Blades (Listed player)
Kale Clague (D-98) - Brandon Wheat Kings (2013 1st round pick)
Jerad Coghill (D-97) - Prince Albert Raiders (2012 6th round pick)
James Hilsendager (D-97) - Regina Pats (2012 9th round pick)
Cole Johnson (F-98) - Swift Current Broncos (2013 2nd round pick)
Andrew Koep (F-97) - Edmonton Oil Kings (2012 2nd round pick)
Austin McGrath (G-98) - Medicine Hat Tigers (2013 4th round pick)
Mason Shaw (F-98) - Medicine Hat Tigers (2013 2nd round pick)

Moose Jaw Generals:
Rykr Cole (F-97) - Regina Pats (2012 3rd round pick)
Shane Collins (D-97) - Prince George Cougars (2012 3rd round pick)
Dawson Davidson (D-98) - Kamloops Blazers (2013 3rd round pick)
Jared Dmytriw (F-98) - Victoria Royals (2013 4th round pick)
Colby Entz (G-98) - Red Deer Rebels (Listed player)
Branden Klatt (F-98) - Edmonton Oil Kings (2013 6th round pick)
Jared Legien (F-98) - Kootenay Ice (2013 1st round pick)
Regan Nagy (F-97) - Victoria Royals (2012 2nd round pick)
Grant Naherniak (G-96) - Red Deer Rebels (2011 5th round pick)
Donovan Neuls (F-97) - Seattle Thunderbirds (2012 8th round pick)
Caleb Riess (F-98) - Red Deer Rebels (2013 4th round pick)
Kyle Sargent (D-98) - Red Deer Rebels (2013 9th round pick)
Ben Verrall (D-96) - Prince Albert Raiders (Listed player)

Notre Dame Argos (Wilcox, SK):
Colin Burston (F-97) - Calgary Hitmen (Listed player)
Dillon Dube (F-98) - Kelowna Rockets (2013 1st round pick)
Kaden Elder (F-98) - Seattle Thunderbirds (2013 1st round pick)
Dylan Ferguson (G-98) - Kamloops Blazers (2013 8th round pick)
Matt Kustra (G-97) - Prince George Cougars (2012 8th round pick)
Gage Ramsay (F-98) - Vancouver Giants (2013 3rd round pick)
Nolan Reid (D-98) - Saskatoon Blades (2013 2nd round pick)
Taylor Ross (F-98) - Spokane Chiefs (2013 4th round pick)

Okanagan Rockets (Kelowna, BC):
Brendan Barry (G-97) - Kelowna Rockets (Listed player)
Tanner Browne (D-97) - Lethbridge Hurricanes (in trade with Brandon - was Brandon's 2012 2nd round pick)
Liam Finlay (F-97) - Regina Pats (Listed player)
Tyson Jost (F-98) - Everett Silvertips (2013 1st round pick)
Jake Kryski (F-98) - Kamloops Blazers (in trade with Prince Albert - was Prince Albert's 2013 1st round pick)
Tanner Wishnowski (F-97) - Kelowna Rockets (Listed player)

Prince Albert Mintos:
Dakota Boutin (F-97) - Brandon Wheat Kings (2012 3rd round pick)
Connor Ingram (G-97) - Kamloops Blazers (Listed player)
Rhys Kipling (D-96) - Prince Albert Raiders (Listed player)
Loch Morrison (D-97) - Calgary Hitmen (2012 7th round pick)
Matthew Parsons (D-98) - Swift Current Broncos (2013 3rd round pick)
Kody White (F-97) - Lethbridge Hurricanes (2012 11th round pick)
Lance Yaremchuk (F-96) - Prince Albert Raiders (2011 6th round pick)

Red Deer Optimist Chiefs:
Gabe Bast (D-96) - Medicine Hat Tigers (Listed player)
Layne Bensmiller (F-97) - Calgary Hitmen (Listed player)
TJ Brown (D-98) - Brandon Wheat Kings (2013 4th round pick)
Jeffrey De Wit (F-98) - Red Deer Rebels (2013 1st round pick)
Jordie Lawson (F-96) - Victoria Royals (Listed player)
Andrew Nielsen (D-96) - Lethbridge Hurricanes (Listed player)
Chase Olsen (F-97) - Medicine Hat Tigers (Listed player)
Carter Sawicki (F-96) - Kootenay Ice (Listed player)
Jayden Sittler (G-96) - Kootenay Ice (Listed player)
Tyler Steenbergen (F-98) - Swift Current Broncos (2013 1st round pick)
Travis Verveda (D-97) - Kamloops Blazers (Listed player)

Regina Pat Canadians:
Michael Eskra (D-97) - Vancouver Giants (2012 5th round pick)
*Logan Flodell (G-97) - Seattle Thunderbirds (2012 3rd round pick)
*Jayden Halbgewachs (F-97) - Moose Jaw Warriors (in trade with Kamloops - was Kamloops' 2012 1st round pick)
Owen Sillinger (F-97) - Saskatoon Blades (in trade with Vancouver - was Vancouver's 2012 10th round pick)

 * Flodell and Halbgewachs will not participate in the Macs as they will be playing at the World U-17 Challenge at the time

Sherwood Park Kings:
Brandon Biro (F-98) - Swift Current Broncos (2013 10th round pick)
Tyler Brown (F-97) - Kelowna Rockets (Listed player)
Travis Child (G-97) - Swift Current Broncos (2012 2nd round pick)
Danton Davis (F-97) - Prince Albert Raiders (Listed player)
Jared Freadrich (D-98) - Regina Pats (2013 4th round pick)
Jack Hamly (F-98) - Spokane Chiefs (Listed player)
Joel Lakusta (D-98) - Saskatoon Blades (2013 7th round pick)
Skyler Mckenzie (F-98) - Portland Winterhawks (2013 8th round pick)
Cameron Reagan (D-97) - Kamloops Blazers (2012 4th round pick)
Sam Steel (F-98) - Regina Pats (2013 1st round pick)

South Island Royals (Victoria, BC):
Josh Anderson (D-98) - Prince George Cougars (2013 1st round pick)
Cam Coutre (F-98) - Seattle Thunderbirds (Listed player)
Dawson Haines (F-98) - Moose Jaw Warriors (2013 4th round pick)
Haydn Hopkins (F-97) - Saskatoon Blades (2012 12th round pick)

UFA Bisons (Strathmore, AB)
Mason McCarty (F-97) - Red Deer Rebels (2012 4th round pick)

Valley West Hawks (Langley, BC):
Trevor Ayre (F-98) - Seattle Thunderbirds (Listed player)
Matt Barberis (D-98) - Vancouver Giants (2013 1st round pick)
Matt Bradley (F-97) - Medicine Hat Tigers (2012 2nd round pick)
Luke Gingras (F-98) - Saskatoon Blades (2013 4th round pick)
Davis Koch (F-98) - Edmonton Oil Kings (2013 2nd round pick)
Jesse Lansdell (F-98) - Saskatoon Blades (Listed player)
Mitch Newsome (F-97) - Saskatoon Blades (2012 12th round pick)
Devante Stephens (D-97) - Kelowna Rockets (Listed player)
Ty Westgard (F-98) - Victoria Royals (2013 8th round pick)

Vancouver NE Chiefs:
Caleb Fantillo (F-98) - Medicine Hat Tigers (2013 6th round pick)
Jordan Henderson (D-97) - Spokane Chiefs (2012 4th round pick)
Lucas Johansen (D-97) - Kelowna Rockets (2012 6th round pick)

Vancouver NW Giants:
Tak Anholt (F-98) - Lethbridge Hurricanes (2013 2nd round pick)
Quinn Benjafield (F-98) - Kamloops Blazers (2013 1st round pick)
Dante Fabbro (D-98) - Seattle Thunderbirds (2013 1st round pick)
Tavin Grant (G-98) - Prince George Cougars (Listed player)
Keyvan Mokhtari (F-98) - Everett Silvertips (2013 7th round pick)
Ty Schultz (D-97) - Medicine Hat Tigers (2012 1st round pick)
Owen Stout (F-97) - Prince George Cougars (Listed player)

There are three other, international, teams at the Macs this year: the Alaska Jr. Aces, the Finnish U-17 team, and the Switzerland U-17 team. There wouldn't be any WHL prospects on the Finnish or Swiss teams (CHL teams can't draft European players until they're 17) and I did not find any WHL-affiliated players on the roster of the Alaska Aces.

There are also several WHL prospects who are listed as Affiliate Players of these teams above. So some of these players may play in the Macs although it is not guaranteed:

Calgary Flames:
Cale Makar (D-98) - Medicine Hat Tigers (2013 8th round pick)

Calgary Royals:
Reed Morison (F-98) - Portland Winterhawks (Listed player)

Edmonton Canadian Athletic Club (CAC):
Austin Shmoorkoff (D-97) - Red Deer Rebels (Listed player)

Edmonton South Side Athletic Club (SSAC):
Matt Berlin (G-98) - Spokane Chiefs (2013 7th round pick)
Colby Sissons (D-98) - Swift Current Broncos (Listed player)

Leduc Oil Kings:
Lane Zablocki (F-98) - Prince George Cougars (2013 5th round pick)

Lloydminster Bobcats:
Dalton Angeltvedt (D-98) - Swift Current Broncos (2013 9th round pick)
Ryan Gilchrist (G-98) - Seattle Thunderbirds (Listed player)
Dallas Hines (D-98) - Kootenay Ice (2013 5th round pick)

Prince Albert Mintos:
Zac Paziuk (F-97) - Kootenay Ice (2012 10th round pick)
Cole Young (F-98) - Prince George Cougars (2013 11th round pick)

Red Deer Optimist Chiefs:
Luke Coleman (F-98) - Prince Albert Raiders (2013 5th round pick)
Matt Krawiec (D-98) - Kootenay Ice (2013 6th round pick)
Landon Mackenzie (D-98) - Swift Current Broncos (Listed player)

Regina Pat Canadians:
Caleb Griffin (F-98) - Seattle Thunderbirds (2013 12th round pick)
Brandon Griffiths (D-98) - Prince Albert Raiders (2013 7th round pick)

Sherwood Park Kings:
Carter Hart (G-98) - Everett Silvertips (2013 8th round pick)
Colin Paradis (D-98) - Moose Jaw Warriors (2013 4th round pick)

UFA Bisons (Strathmore, AB)
Kurtis Chapman (G-98) - Regina Pats (2013 7th round pick)
Shaye Seefried (D-98) - Saskatoon Blades (2013 8th round pick)

So the totals by WHL team - not counting AP's or the players who are away at the World U-17's:

Red Deer Rebels: 11
Edmonton Oil Kings: 10
Medicine Hat Tigers: 10
Saskatoon Blades: 9
Victoria Royals: 9
Kamloops Blazers: 7
Lethbridge Hurricanes: 7
Prince Albert Raiders: 7
Spokane Chiefs: 7
Vancouver Giants: 7
Calgary Hitmen: 6
Kelowna Rockets: 6
Kootenay Ice: 6
Prince George Cougars: 6
Regina Pats: 6
Seattle Thunderbirds: 6
Swift Current Broncos: 6
Brandon Wheat Kings: 4
Portland Winterhawks: 4
Tri-City Americans: 3
Everett Silvertips: 2
Moose Jaw Warriors: 1

Dumba moves

Is this the kickoff deal to start the WHL's trade deadline runup? Portland and Red Deer swung a potential blockbuster today, with the Rebels sending '94 defenceman Mathew Dumba and a conditional bantam draft pick to Portland in return for '95 forward Presten Kopeck and conditional bantam draft picks.

I say potential blockbuster because of the small detail that Dumba is currently in the NHL, on the roster of the Minnesota Wild. But he hasn't suited up for a game for them in over two weeks and has only played in 13 of 32 games overall, averaging 12 and a half minutes of ice time per game. Which is not a lot of ice time for a defenceman so all these factors put together - plus the fact that they've already decided to loan him to the Canadian team for the World Juniors - would seem to indicate that the Wild are coming to the conclusion that Dumba is not in their plans for the remainder of this season. If I were a betting man I would be laying down a wager that we'll see Dumba in Winterhawks colours by the 2nd week of January.

To break down the rest of the deal, it's hard to really understand who gets what since all the draft picks involved are conditional. We know the Rebels get Kopeck (who is currently injured and not due back until mid-January or so) and that's really the only thing for sure right now. I would speculate (and only speculation) that the conditional pick the Rebels give up is only in the case that Dumba never comes back to the WHL. In that situation, the Rebels will send the Hawks a pick and the deal is simply Kopeck for the pick, and nothing else happens.

If Dumba DOES come back though then the Rebels don't owe the Hawks a pick at all. Instead the Hawks will send the Rebels a few more picks and the deal becomes Dumba for Kopeck and those picks. (All my speculation here still though, remember)

The conditional picks going to Red Deer are another good source of speculation. Normally a deal for a player of Dumba's calibre would involve a 1st round bantam pick, or even more than one. (Case in point: Kootenay gave up a 1st round pick plus a prospect who was a past 1st round pick, for Tim Bozon of Kamloops earlier this year). The stumbling block in Portland giving the Rebels a first round bantam pick for Dumba is that they don't have any first round picks again until 2018 thanks to the WHL sanctions last year. So it seems pretty safe to say they didn't give up any 1st rounders for Dumba.

So was it 2nds? 3rds? We don't know....I guess we'll have to wait and see if Dumba comes to Portland and then analyze the price the Hawks paid once we know what it was.

This deal also cements the Rebels as sellers at this year's trade deadline, joining Lethbridge, Moose Jaw, and Kamloops as teams we can be fairly certain are willing to deal veterans for younger players and prospects. From the Rebels point of view, that might include goaltender Patrik Bartosak, the reigning CHL goaltender of the year. He's an overage AND an import, which will reduce the potential suitors for him, but he would be a nice pickup for a team that sees itself taking a little playoff run but are uncertain about their goaltending. Other possible trade bait in Rebelville would be overage forward Lukas Sutter (Memorial Cup experience there with the Blades last year) and maybe 19 year old defenceman Brady Gaudet?