Monday, March 21, 2011

Draft lottery Wednesday

For six teams, the 2010-11 season is over except for one last bit of business - the bantam draft lottery, which will be held Wednesday morning at 11am MST at the WHL offices in Calgary.

All six non-playoff teams will get a number of balls in the lottery machine, from which one ball will be drawn. The team whose ball that is will move up two spots in the draft order, with everything else remaining the same.

The current draft order, with number of balls in the lottery and corresponding chance of winning the lottery:

1. Calgary (6 balls - 28.57%)
2. Swift Current (5 balls - 23.81%)
3. Lethbridge (from Regina) (4 balls - 19.05%)
4. Lethbridge (3 balls - 14.29%)
5. Seattle (2 balls - 9.52%)
6. Kamloops (1 ball - 4.76%)

Obviously only the teams currently in the #1, #2, and #3 positions have a chance at landing the first overall selection. If the #4, #5, or #6 team wins the lottery, then they move up two spots and the Hitmen retain the first overall pick.

So, the chance at landing the first overall pick:

Calgary: 57.14%
Swift Current: 23.81%
Lethbridge: 19.05%

Any way you look at it, Lethbridge has to be feeling pretty good about the bantam draft, as they are going to definitely have two picks in the top five and an 86% chance of two picks in the top 4, including a 19% chance of picking first overall.

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