Ontario bias?

I've gotten a few emails about the potential Ontario bias that I mentioned in yesterday's post (see below), and now Neate Sager of the Yahoo junior hockey blog Buzzing The Net has linked to my post with one of his own which examines the issue.

So, how about some numbers and then you can be the judge for yourself? I've taken the rosters for the IIHF U-18 tournaments, IIHF U-20 tournaments (the "World Juniors"), and the Ivan Hlinka summer U-18 tournaments for the past 10 years and broken them down by league affiliation of the players who made the cut. Just for fun, I threw in the 2002, 2006, and 2010 Olympic teams as well. All numbers are the percentage of players on the team from that league. I didn't consider positional breakdowns or bigger/smaller roles on the teams that players may have. All teams had 22 players, except the Olympic teams, which had 23.

Players who were not WHLers/OHLers/QMJHLers at the time of the event but whom later played in those leagues were counted with those leagues. Players who never played major junior (ie, NCAA players) do not factor into these percentages, obviously. And this is the reason why not all percentages add up to 100% for each team - because I don't have an NCAA column.

I've also added a column showing the Canadian team's result in each tournament.

First, the summer-18 tournament now known as the Memorial of Ivan Hlinka. (Previously it was known as the "Junior World Cup" and before that. the "Eight Nations tournament"):

Event	WHL%	OHL%	QMJHL%	Result
2002 Eight Nations	45.5%	27.3%	27.3%	Gold
2003 Junior World Cup	54.5%	22.7%	18.2%	4th
2004 Junior World Cup	27.3%	45.5%	13.6%	Gold
2005 Junior World Cup	45.5%	27.3%	22.7%	Gold
2006 Ivan Hlinka	50.0%	27.3%	18.2%	Gold
2007 Ivan Hlinka	31.8%	36.4%	31.8%	4th
2008 Ivan Hlinka	50.0%	36.4%	13.6%	Gold
2009 Ivan Hlinka	31.8%	45.5%	18.2%	Gold
2010 Ivan Hlinka	18.2%	63.6%	18.2%	Gold
2011 Ivan Hlinka	22.7%	59.1%	13.6%	n/a

Observations: well, the OHL definitely skews quite heavy in the last two years. In the 8 years before that, it seems fairly even overall, with one league having a slight edge in some years and the other having an edge in other years.

Funny enough, in 2007 - the year Kyle Beach caused controversy by calling the team "Team Ontario"  - the team was actually very balanced that year. Beach's issue was more to do with the roles being given to different players (he thought the coach was leaning on OHL guys too much) but the roster itself was very equal across all the leagues.


Next, the official IIHF World U-18 tournament, held every April. The numbers here are slightly skewed because some CHL players are not available due to their teams still competing in CHL playoffs. But let's assume those absences are fair for all the leagues:

Event	WHL%	OHL%	QMJHL%	Result
2002 U-18	40.9%	27.3%	31.8%	6th
2003 U-18	36.4%	36.4%	27.3%	Gold
2004 U-18	54.5%	31.8%	4.5%	4th
2005 U-18	27.3%	36.4%	31.8%	Silver
2006 U-18	40.9%	40.9%	18.2%	4th
2007 U-18	31.8%	36.4%	22.7%	4th
2008 U-18	31.8%	40.9%	22.7%	Gold
2009 U-18	36.4%	54.5%	4.5%	4th
2010 U-18	31.8%	59.1%	9.1%	7th
2011 U-18	27.3%	63.6%	9.1%	4th

Observations: again, the OHL is skewing heavier over the last three years. Before that, both the OHL and WHL tended to have 30-40% of the players on each team.

Then the World Juniors (IIHF U-20 championship). Again, some players are not available because they're in the NHL. But let's assume that affects everyone equally again:

Event	WHL%	OHL%	QMJHL%	Result
2002 WJC	45.5%	40.9%	9.1%	Silver
2003 WJC	36.4%	40.9%	18.2%	Silver
2004 WJC	45.5%	31.8%	18.2%	Silver
2005 WJC	63.6%	22.7%	13.6%	Gold
2006 WJC	31.8%	36.4%	13.6%	Gold
2007 WJC	31.8%	36.4%	18.2%	Gold
2008 WJC	36.4%	45.5%	13.6%	Gold
2009 WJC	54.5%	27.3%	13.6%	Gold
2010 WJC	36.4%	36.4%	27.3%	Silver
2011 WJC	40.9%	31.8%	18.2%	Silver

Observations: this teams seems to have remained fairly constant - two bumps up above 50% for the WHL, but for the most part the WHL and OHL are both being represented in about 30-45% of the players on the team.

Lastly, the Canadian Mens Olympic Teams. Since these players are all in the NHL at the time, obviously we are talking about graduates of the respective leagues here and not active CHL players:

Event	WHL%	OHL%	QMJHL%	Result
2002 Olympics	26.1%	39.1%	13.0%	Gold
2006 Olympics	34.8%	26.1%	21.7%	7th
2010 Olympics	34.8%	30.4%	21.7%	Gold

Observations: again, no noticeable biases here. There's no great variations in the percentages, with WHL and OHL grads making up 25-40% each of all three teams.


So....it looks like the only real evidence of an OHL bias - if such a thing does exist - comes in the two U-18 teams (Hlinka and U-18 tournaments) over the last 2-3 years. This could be easily explained if you assume that the Ontario 1993 and 1994 birth years are/were stronger than the western talent from those years. Are they actually stronger? Only time will tell on that question.

FWIW, I don't believe there is an actual conspiracy to favor OHL players. As in, they don't sit around in a room and decide to screw over the WHL kids. Absolutely not. But the significantly higher numbers of Ontario players on the last several editions of Canadian U-18 teams is a trend which bears some watching, at least.