First round of the WHL playoffs kicks off tonight in Calgary. So, prediction time:
Eastern Conference:
#1 Edmonton vs #8 Kootenay:
My pick: Edmonton in 5
Kootenay is the defending champs but really, there's not much reason to like their chances in this series. Edmonton was the highest-scoring team in the conference and also the best-defending team. Edmonton has won 11 straight heading into the playoffs while the Ice have been struggling for a while, slowing dropping down the standings into 8th. Edmonton swept the head-to-head meetings this year and only two teams in the entire league were more dominant at home than the Oil Kings' .833. All put together, the Ice have a tall, tall task if they're going to win this series. I think the Ice may have the best goaltender in the series so Lieuwen might steal a game, but he's not going to steal this series for them.
#2 Moose Jaw vs #7 Regina:
My pick: Moose Jaw in 6
One of the WHL's great rivalries in the first round, terrific to see this matchup. This should be a good, close series with lots of emotion, as befits a couple of rivals. The teams split the season series at 4-4, with each team winning two games in overtime; Regina won four of the last five meetings. The two teams are also fairly evenly matched in most statistical categories. All in all, this series has the potential of being one of the most interesting of the entire first round. Moose Jaw's ace in the hole though, at least IMO, is that they have home ice advantage and no other team in the entire league was as good at home this year as the Warriors were.
#3 Calgary vs #6 Brandon:
My pick: Calgary in 7
This is another series that promises some close, entertaining games. While not divisional rivals, the Hitmen and Wheat Kings have met in 5 of the last 8 playoffs now as well as at the 2010 Memorial Cup. They're as familiar with each other as you can get without being 45 minutes apart like Regina and Moose Jaw. The two teams also match up well statistically this year; they both scored the exact same number of goals, although the Hitmen allowed 0.5 goals per game fewer. Calgary won the season series 3-1. In the end I have to go with Calgary; they have home ice (while Brandon doesn't even have their home building) and the Hitmen have been one of the best teams in the entire league since the trade deadline. But it'll be close....so very close.
#4 Medicine Hat vs #5 Saskatoon:
My pick: Medicine Hat in 6
This is the third of the four Eastern series which promises to be close. For starters, both teams feature top-end goaltending - there may not be another series which has two better goaltenders going head to head. Both goalies have the ability to steal the series for their teams, even if the rest of the team gets outplayed. Saskatoon won the season series 3-1, although two of the wins were in extra time. Numbers-wise, Medicine Hat scored 13 less goals than the Blades, but also allowed 41 less. Medicine Hat is an older and more playoff-experienced team. I do worry a bit about Medicine Hat being a little bit of a two-trick pony offensively, they really have nobody who scores goals beyond Etem and Shinkaruk. But, overall I just like the Tigers in this one....could go seven and could go either way though, wouldn't surprise me at all.
Western Conference:
#1 Tri-City vs #8 Everett:
My pick: Tri-City in 4
Do we need to go into the reasons for this one? Oh, why not. Tri-City was #2 overall. Everett made the playoffs when another team lost on the last day of the season. Tri-City was the league's best defensive team. Everett was one of the league's worst offensive teams. Actually, let's just stop there. Everett might, MIGHT win a game, though I'm picking that they won't. If they actually won the series? It would probably be the biggest upset in WHL playoff history.
#2 Kamloops vs #7 Victoria:
My pick: Kamloops in 4
As with the Tri-City series, this is simply a mismatch. Victoria was far and away the worst defensive team in the WHL and that's not a good thing when you're facing one of the best offences. Kamloops won seven of their eight meetings this year (averaging 5 goals per game) and I don't expect much to change.
#3 Portland vs #6 Kelowna:
My pick: Portland in 5
This is a third mismatch, even though the underdog is leagues better than the first two underdogs. Kelowna isn't a bad club, Portland is just a deep, stacked team with offence from every line and one of the most playoff-experienced teams in the league as well after a run to the Final last year. Portland swept the season series 4-0. They're also nigh-unbeatable at home which is always bad news for an opponent who lacks home ice advantage. I'm going to give the Rockets a game at home, but overall a Rockets win in this series would almost be more shocking than a Silvertips win in the Tri-City series.
#4 Vancouver vs #5 Spokane:
My pick: Spokane in 6
I like Vancouver and I hate to ever bet against a Don Hay team but the Giants are a banged-up team right now, using affiliates and callups everywhere to replaced injured regulars. Statistically the two teams match up well, their GF & GA numbers are close enough (Spokane scored 2 more and allowed 9 less); Vancouver won both games of the season series, but both were by one goal and one was in a shootout. At least on paper there's not a lot to tell these teams apart. The injuries are just kind of the deciding factor here, I think.
No comments:
Post a Comment