The Memorial Cup is in the books and that means that the 2010-11 season is now over a week old already. Or so us fans think of it anyway.....so, to kick things off for the new season, how about some speculation about who the overagers might be next year for each of the WHL's clubs?
Remember that obviously this is bound to change due to trades, releases, pro contract signings, retirements, etc, etc. So take it for what it's worth - early June speculation.
Brandon:
Eligible returnees: Darren Bestland (D), Jacob DeSerres (G), Jordan Hale (F), Travis Hamonic (D), Andrew Hayes (G), Brent Raedeke (F), Colby Robak (D), Mark Schneider (D), David Toews (F), Alexander Urbom (D), Shayne Wiebe (F)
My take: Hamonic, Raedeke, Robak, and Urbom move on to the pro ranks for sure. That leaves Bestland, DeSerres, Hale, Hayes, Schneider, Toews, and Wiebe for three spots. So, there's going to be some trades here for sure. They definitely don't need both goalies so one of those guys is gone for sure with the other one staying to mentor top prospect Liam Liston. I pick Hayes to be gone, with DeSerres staying since he was the #1 in the playoffs for them. Wiebe is definitely a keeper, they are losing a lot of offence next year and they need him for that. And they really need to keep a defenceman too since they only have two returning defencemen otherwise. So, I would keep Bestland in that case....Schneider's a good pick too though if they go that way. The money wrench in all this is David Toews, who could potentially be the best of the lot. They could keep him instead of Wiebe, or perhaps they could deal him for a better defenceman than Bestland/Schneider. So many options here, it's hard to pick.
Calgary:
Eligible returnees: Kyle Aschim (D), Rigby Burgart (F), Tyler Fiddler (F), Mikhail Fisenko (F), Kris Foucault (F), Martin Jones (G), Brandon Kozun (F), Ian Schultz (F), Tyler Shattock (F), Zach Stebner (D), Michael Stone (D)
My take: Jones, Kozun, Schultz, Shattock, and Stone are signed and move on to the pros for sure. Foucault could join that group, but the Minnesota Wild do have another year to sign him yet so he could be back the way Joel Broda was this year. Fisenko is probably welcome back in Calgary but I think he's likely to get pro offers in Russia that he'll find more attractive than the WHL monthly stipend. That leaves Aschim, Burgart, Fiddler, and Stebner, plus maybe Foucault. Fiddler and Stebner are locks for spots IMO, as is Foucault if he returns. If no Foucault, then I think the Hitmen are buyers for the 3rd spot as Burgart isn't what they need (top-six forward help) and Aschim will probably move on to life after the WHL due to concussion problems.
Chilliwack:
Eligible returnees: Jeff Einhorn (D), Lucas Gore (G), Brandon Manning (D), Shayne Neigum (F), Alexander Wiklund (F)
My take: I believe Wiklund has already determined not to be back next year and will play in Sweden instead. Some possibility that Manning could get a pro contract and be gone. The rest - Einhorn/Gore/Neigum - should all be back. If Manning does come back, then Einhorn is going to be the odd man out.
Edmonton:
Eligible returnees: Tyler Hlookoff (D), Mike Piluso (F), Adrian Van de Mosselaer (D)
My take: That's the three. They do need more veteran help up front next year than on the back end though so one of Hlookoff or Van de Mosselaer could be swapped for a forward?
Everett:
Eligible returnees: Clayton Cumiskey (F), Chris de la Lande (D), Radko Gudas (D), Thomas Heemskerk (G), Daniel Iwanski (F), Curtis Kulchar (D)
My take: Gudas probably moves on to the pro ranks. Heemskerk has signed with San Jose and is probably gone. The other four are probably all coming back although I think only Cumiskey and maybe de la Lande are certainties to stay. Iwanski and Kulchar, I think they are more depth players and maybe not the kind of guys who normally get overage jobs in the WHL. One of them may stick in Everett though if they don't upgrade.
Kamloops:
Eligible returnees: Corey Fienhage (D), Mark Hall (F)
My take: Those two are there by default although I think Mark Hall is probably a weak choice for an O/A spot. Look for the Blazers to add two more guys to go with Fienhage.
Kelowna:
Eligible returnees: Evan Bloodoff (F), Tyler Matheson (F), Brandon McMillan (F), Kyle St. Denis (F), Geordie Wudrick (F)
My take: McMillan will move on to the pros. Matheson is in no way good enough for another year in the WHL. Bloodoff, St. Denis, and Wudrick are a pretty good trio, although St. Denis may retire due to injury problems. If he does, then the Rockets have an opening to add a player.
Kootenay:
Eligible returnees: Steele Boomer (F), Matt Fraser (F), Kevin King (F), Todd Matthews (G), Dominik Pacovsky (F)
My take: Pacovsky will not be back. Boomer, Fraser, and King are a pretty good forward trio, but you have to consider Matthews for a job too since he took the #1 spot from Nathan Lieuwen last year. If Lieuwen looks like he is ready to reclaim the starters job, then Matthews moves out....otherwise the Ice will have to keep Matthews and move out one of the three forwards (and Lieuwen too, probably).
Lethbridge:
Eligible returnees: Mitch Maxwell (F), Mike Reddington (D), Max Ross (F)
My take: That's the three. Maxwell and Reddington are easy keepers; Ross can play both forward and defence which increases his value but if there are better options out there available to the Canes, I'd look for them to upgrade Ross' spot.
Medicine Hat:
Eligible returnees: Thomas Carr (D), Jace Coyle (D), Joey Frazer (F), Taylor Gal (F), Wacey Hamilton (F), Tristan King (F), Matt MacKay (F), Zdenek Okal (F)
My take: King is signed and won't be back. Okal probably won't be back as a two-spotter - although I thought he was an underrated player. The other six guys should all be back though, which creates a big logjam for the Tigers to sort out since all six of them can probably play somewhere in the league as overagers. Hamilton is the captain so I think he stays put. I also think Coyle is one of the more anonymously very good players in the league so I would keep him too. The last spot is probably for a forward, one of Gal or MacKay. Pick one...they all had similar numbers. I'll take MacKay. That means Carr, Frazer, and Gal are available and should all play somewhere else. That will give the Tigers a few more mid-round picks in the 2011 draft for sure....
Moose Jaw:
Eligible returnees: Jeff Bosch (G), Spencer Edwards (F), Thomas Frazee (F), Dylan Hood (F), Brendan Rowinski (F), Chad Suer (D)
My take: All six of those guys are going to be in the WHL next year, but only three of them in Moose Jaw obviously. In other words, the Warriors are going to be getting a few extra 4th/5th round picks in the 2011 draft too. I think they keep Bosch and Rowinski for sure...they don't need Suer on defence (six other returning 18/19 year old d-men) so it's one of Frazee/Hood/Edwards for the third spot. I think I keep Hood but you can't go wrong with one of the others either.
Portland:
Eligible returnees: Spencer Bennett (F), Ian Curtis (G), Tayler Jordan (F), Luca Sbisa (D), Luke Walker (F)
My take: Sbisa is long gone to the pros. Bennett could go to the pros too although his NHL club has another year to sign him yet and could leave him in Portland another year. Luke Walker could/should get an NHL contract as well whether he gets drafted or not. 50/50 on those two guys being back, I think. So it's quite possible that the Hawks could have none of those guys listed above on their team next year. Jordan is a one-dimensional player who's not usually considered for overage spots, and Curtis' job is not needed if they plan to go with Mac Carruth as their starter. Perhaps they keep Curtis though if there is nobody in the system ready to partner up with Carruth next year. So their trio could be Bennett-Walker-Curtis, or it could be ???-???-???.....
Prince Albert:
Eligible returnees: Nathan Deck (D), Jordan Hickmott (F), Colin Reddin (F), Igor Revenko (F), Jordan Rowley (D), Brendon Wall (D), Stefan Warg (D)
My take: Warg should move on to the pros, either in the AHL or back in Europe. Same with Revenko, although I suspect he'd be welcome back as a two-spotter if he wanted to come back. Assuming he doesn't return, I think Rowley, Deck and Hickmott are probably the top three here. Reddin just didn't produce enough after the trade, and Wall is clearly 3rd-best of the three defencemen.
Prince George:
Eligible returnees: James Dobrowolski (F), Kyle Jahraus (G), Taylor Orser (F), Parker Stanfield (F), Kurt Torbohm (D), Alex Wright (G)
My take: Dobrowolski is an easy keeper. Stanfield was 3rd on the team in scoring last year so he probably stays too. The rest....can we choose "None Of The Above"? Obviously neither of those goalies is going to be back since they have Stremmel as the #1 and Jahraus/Wright were just fill-ins anyway. Orser is not good enough to play as an O/A in the league and so Torbohm probably has the edge on the 3rd spot by default even though he was a -37 last year.
Red Deer:
Eligible returnees: Colin Archer (D), Kraymer Barnstable (G), Nick Bell (D), Willie Coetzee (F), Brett Ferguson (F), Brad Haber (D), Darcy Kuemper (G)
My take: All of these guys could/should be back, although I expect Barnstable to be in Jr A next year since they don't need both him and Kuemper both as O/A goalies. Kuemper (who has another year before the NHL's Wild need to sign him) is a keeper as they need him to get a guy like Cam Gorchynski ready to take over in net in 2011-12. Willie Coetzee is another guy who's a no-brainer to keep. That means the last spot is probably between Archer, Bell, Ferguson, and Haber. I think you have to keep Archer from that group, he's the captain and one of those unsung hero type guys. Ferguson should find a home somewhere else in the league. Bell and Haber, less certain for those guys.
Regina:
Eligible returnees: Jordan Eberle (F), Tomas Hricina (F), Cass Mappin (F), Craig Orfino (F), Colten Teubert (D)
My take: Eberle is but a memory, as is Teubert. Mappin and Orfino will be back although they're going to have to prove they can have career years offensively in order to justify keeping their spots. Hricina won't be back as a two-spotter. So the Pats have at least one opening to add a player, maybe more than one opening if they decide Mappin/Orfino doesn't/don't bring enough to the table.
Saskatoon:
Eligible returnees: Sena Acolatse (D), Jeremy Boyer (F), Randy McNaught (F), Jyri Niemi (D), Gaelan Patterson (F), Steven Stanford (G), Travis Toomey (F), Marek Viednesky (F), Teigan Zahn (D)
My take: Niemi and Viedensky are signed and will not be back. The other seven guys though should all be back since Chicago did not sign Zahn and the Flames have another year to sign Patterson. I think Patterson and Zahn should be locks for spots here; the third spot is up in the air between Acolatse (brings toughness and versatility since he can play both F & D), Boyer (brings offence, was better in the 2nd half of last season), McNaught (maybe the toughest guy in the league, improved a lot as a player too), and Stanford (was Blades' #1 goalie but they might not need him as an O/A since they still have Adam Morrison). I don't think Travis Toomey is going to make the grade as an O/A in Saskatoon due to their depth of choices, but maybe he might find work somewhere else in the league.
Seattle:
Eligible returnees: Brenden Dillon (D)
My take: They'll keep Dillon. Other than that, they're going to have to be buyers for the other two spots since they have nobody else.
Spokane:
Eligible returnees: Kyle Beach (F), Tyler Johnson (F), Levko Koper (F), James Reid (G), Stefan Ulmer (D), Mitch Wahl (F)
My take: Beach and Wahl are gone for sure, and I suspect Ulmer will have pro options in Europe, the Swiss league pays pretty well. That leaves Johnson, Koper, and Reid, which is an altogether pretty good group. No changes needed here really.
Swift Current:
Eligible returnees: Travis Bobbee (D), Morgan Clark (G), Justin Dowling (F), Mark Friesen (G), Stepan Novotny (F)
My take: Novotny is unlikely to be back as a two-spot player. Dowling and Bobbee should be, as well as one of the two goalies, either Clark or Friesen. I'm betting they keep Friesen and trade Clark.
Tri-City:
Eligible returnees: Mike Brown (F), Sergei Drozd (F), Eric Mestery (D), Alexander Pechurski (G), Neal Prokop (F), Kruise Reddick (F), Tyler Schmidt (D)
My take: Todd Kennedy and Riley McIntosh were already released, which is why they're not on the list. Pechurski is probably moving on to the AHL with Pittsburgh. I don't see Mike Brown playing in the league as an overager. Drozd is a possibility as a two-spot player but the Ams have a deep group of other potential O/As here with Mestery, Prokop (if he recovers from that badly broken leg), Reddick, and Schmidt all likely to be in the league as 20's next year. If Prokop is forced to retire then a Mestery, Schmidt, Reddick trio would give the Ams one of the league's best groups of overagers. That makes it less likely they're interested in a two-spot player like Drozd in the first place.
Vancouver:
Eligible returnees: Lance Bouma (F), Kevin Connauton (D), Craig Cunningham (F), Brent Henke (F), Dillon Scholten (D), Tomas Vincour (F), James Wright (F)
My take: Bouma, Connauton, Vincour, and Wright have pro contracts and are gone. That leaves Cunningham, Henke, and Scholten as the Giants' three overagers. Cunningham is an obvious keeper but I'm not sure that Henke and Scholten are the kind of guys who usually play as overagers, especially not in Vancouver, where they always seem to have a trio of top guys. So, look for the Giants to upgrade those spots.