Shootout stats

Here's some stats in response to an e-mailed request....basically, is it an advantage to shoot first or last in a shootout? The home team gets to pick whether they shoot first or second. So, which is better?

Well, there have been 34 shootouts in the WHL this year. The team that took the first shot has won 18 of them, or 53%. The team shooting second won the other 16, or 47%. Given the sample size, I'd say that 18 to 16 is not a statistically significant advantage either way.

So, which does the home team tend to choose? Well, this one is clear: the home team far more frequently chooses to shoot last: 22 out of 34 times, or 65% of the time. The sarcastic viewpoint here is that since the team shooting first wins more often, the home teams are choosing to lose.

And lastly, does home ice give an edge in the shootout? Well, overall the home team has won 57% of all the games played this year. In the shootout, the winning percentage is nearly the same: the home team has won 18 of the 34 games, or 53%. So basically, home ice with the home fans cheering your shooters on provides no advantage....it's even a slight disadvantage, although a near-insignificant one.

Personally, when I think about it, I don't see any logical reason why going either first or second would provide more of an advantage....if you go first and score, you put the pressure on the other team's shooters to also score. But on the flip side, if you go first and DON'T score, now the pressure is on your goalie to make a save. And if he doesn't, then it's onto your shooters since another miss means the other team can win the game on their next shot. There's pluses and minuses both ways which is why I find it interesting that coaches have a definite preference for shooting second when given a choice.

But here's something else interesting though: in 26 of the 34 shootouts, the team that scored the first goal of the shootout eventually won it. In fact, in 21 of those, the losing team never scored at all. In other words, a single goal in the shootout is enough to win 62% of the time - and scoring the first goal will mean you win 76% of the time.

So in that case, why do more home teams not elect to shoot first? And not only that, but get your best two shooters out there to take your first two shots. Every time. Don't hold any big shootout gunners in reserve in case you need a goal on the 3rd, 4th, 5th shot. Odds are that the shootout will be won or lost in your first couple of shots most times.