Central division predictions

Guess I'd better get on with this before the season is half-over.....

Central Division:

1. Calgary - the Central is going to be a pretty close race I think, with not a lot of points separating the top 3 or 4. I can come up with good reasons why any of the top four teams here could win the division but I settled on Calgary as the most likely. They have the best group of forwards, and they have the best goaltender. Best in two out of the three main categories should be enough for first place. Calgary's returning lineup, with the likes of Broda, Kozun, Schultz, Foucault, Stone, etc produced 184 goals last season, about 50 goals more than anyone else in the division has returning this year. In net Martin Jones might be the best goaltender in the WHL this year, so that area is solid as well. On the minus side of the ledger, the defence is very inexperienced once you get past Stone - no other defenceman on the team has more than 90 career games played. Nice thing about having a quality goaltender though - the mistakes of a rookie defenceman don't always bite you quite as hard.

2. Medicine Hat - the Tigers are always competitive and this year will be no exception. They are the oldest team in the league this year and also one of the most experienced. There's not a lot of big star forwards but there's a solid collection of a good half-dozen 50, 60, 70 point guys who should more than get the job done offensively. The defence has a good collection of offensive and defensive minded players and is the most experienced group in the division. And you can't forget the coach, Willie Desjardins, who has been very successful in the WHL. The big question mark comes in net, where it looks like sophomore Tyler Bunz is going to be given the starting job any day now. Bunz is very highly regarded but is he up to the task of being a #1 at age 17? The other issue, as it seems to be every year in the Hat, is that the Tigers are the 2nd-smallest team in the league. They thrive on small, speedy players, which has its' obvious benefits, but also leaves them open to being intimidated and/or worn down by bigger teams. A nicer mix of big and small would make me feel better about the Tigers' chances.....I've said that every year for forever now and sometimes it doesn't hurt them but sometimes it does.

3. Kootenay - when you crunch the numbers, the Ice are an average, middle of the pack team in almost every category, and I think 3rd in a division of average strength is just about right. They have a few really good forwards, a few more average, and a few good role players. Defence is lead by Brayden McNabb, who I think is one of the best WHLers that most fans around the league don't hear much about. Couple other good vets here too, just like in net, where Nathan Lieuwen has the ability to be one of the league's better goalies if he can find the consistency his game was lacking last year. Overall a decent, not spectacularly strong lineup that I think should be good for third place if the goaltending finds its form....if not, I can see the Ice slipping to 4th and the Oil Kings moving up to 3rd.

4. Edmonton - is this the year the Oil Kings shed the "expansion" label by breaking the .500 mark? I think it is. There's a lot of statistical reasons to doubt them - they're small, they're young, they're inexperienced, they have very few proven veteran scorers, I could go on and on here. But I'm going to throw stats out the window here a moment because I just like the way this team has played since, oh, January of last season. They look like a good team and sometimes that's more valuable than having superstars. Oh, and the goaltending isn't too shabby either, which really makes you wonder why Lethbridge ever flipped Torrie Jung to Edmonton in the first place. Largely because of Jung, the Oil Kings are going to the playoffs again this year, and Lethbridge isn't. One other thing to note about the Oil Kings - this is their third year, and if you discount the immediate success of Everett and the continued struggles of Chilliwack, the 3rd & 4th years have been the years where past expansion teams like Calgary, Kootenay, and Vancouver have taken big strides. I think Edmonton is setting up well to follow that lead this year.

5. Red Deer (miss playoffs) - there is too much good young talent on this team for the Rebels not to be taking a big step forward this year, so it is a very difficult decision for me to pick them to miss the playoffs again. I'm just not sold that they are any better than any of the teams I ranked above them; perhaps they could make the playoffs by being better than the #4 team in the East (Moose Jaw, Swift Current, whoever that ends up being) but I still have my doubts. There's some good forwards here - Green, Ferraro, Coetzee, Nugent-Hopkins - but the depth isn't quite there. There's some good defencemen - Weller, Petrovic, Archer - but again, the depth is a little less than some other teams. And I like Darcy Kuemper, but the Rebels probably have the worst starting goaltender in the division unless Tyler Bunz falls on his face. The good news is, every player I mentioned except Green is going to be here again next year and I think 2010-11 could be Red Deer's year to return to being a contender. The young guys are that good. Maybe just not good enough this year yet.

6. Lethbridge (miss playoffs) - the early season trades to improve the goaltending and defence helped but this is still a team that is short on top-end quality and depth at every position. They're a young team with a lot of inexperienced players and it's going to be a learning year for the Hurricanes. There's some good vets here like Bancks, Ashton, Valchar, Reddington, and Rowat, who should keep things from getting too bad, but I just don't see this team having what it takes to be any better than anyone else in the division....or in the conference, for that matter.

Just one other note about the Central - this is going to be a very close division. I can see a finish where not much more than 20 points separates first from fifth. So it wouldn't take much in the way of key injuries, trades, etc, to move teams around a lot on these rankings.