Early look at 2011-12's overagers

The Ice-Royals trade this week made me think it's time for a look at how the overage situation around the league is shaping up for the coming year.

Below is a list of all the teams, with all their 19 year olds from last year listed and then some notes on who may or may not be coming back as an overager, and which of the returnees may or may not have spots on those teams when all is said and done.

Some of these players are going to be traded before mid-October and may have jobs on other teams. I'm not taking that into consideration, only looking at who is available on each team right now.


Brandon:
Paul Ciarelli (F), Scott Glennie (F), Hampus Gustafsson (F), Brodie Melnychuk (D)

Glennie has signed with the Dallas Stars and won't be back. Gustafsson signed in Europe and was replaced in the import draft anyway, so he won't be back either. That leaves the Wheaties with Ciarelli (18pts in 60gp last year) and Melnychuk (28pts in 58gp), with an open spot. Melnychuk is a safe pick for a spot. I would think Ciarelli needs to be able to play in the top six forwards to keep his spot but for now we'll call him safe since there is no competition. For the open spot, I would suspect the Wheaties would like a top-six forward since they don't need any defencemen or goaltenders, they have lots of both returning.


Calgary:
Jimmy Bubnick (F), Mike Snider (G), Ben Wilson (D)

All three should be back, since Bubnick (27pts in 60gp) did not sign with the Atlanta Thrashers (Winnipeg Jets now I guess). Bubnick and Wilson (22pts in 72gp) should be safe; Wilson saw some time last year at forward so maybe he'll be moved there permanently due to 6 other returning d-men. For Snider, a lot probably depends on whether the Hitmen feel they have a young goalie ready to play in the league as the backup or not. If so, Snider will have to beat out fellow incumbent Brandon Glover (who's 19) for the starting job to stay in the league.


Edmonton:
Cameron Abney (F), Jon Groenheyde (G), Josh Lazowski (F), Rhett Rachinski (F)

Abney has signed with the Edmonton Oilers and probably is gone. The other three should all return next year although I suspect Groenheyde will be under pressure from Laurent Brossoit for the starters job. If he loses the #1 job to Brossoit, then Groenheyde probably doesn't have a spot with the Oil Kings as an overage backup. Lazowski (28pts in 32gp last year) should be a safe pick, and I like Rachinski but he'll be pressured by younger players for a spot in the top six.


Everett:
Josh Birkholz (F), Landon Ferraro (F), Scott MacDonald (F), Tyler Maxwell (F), Rasmus Rissanen (D), Brennan Yadlowski (D)

Ferraro has been inked by the Red Wings and he's gone. Rasmus Rissanen has signed with the Carolina Hurricanes and is gone too. The other four should all come back and it seems to me that MacDonald might very well be the odd man out. The Silvertips defence needs Yadlowski, and Maxwell scored 40 goals last year so they are keepers. Birkholz didn't do as well as expected but he still scored 18 goals so I think he gets to keep his job with the expectation of more production next year. That leaves MacDonald's 22 points in 69 games last year on the outside.


Kamloops:
Dalibor Bortnak (F), Josh Caron (D), Bronson Maschmeyer (D), Linden Saip (D), Chase Schaber (F)

Bortnak was released. Saip left the team in mid-season last year and I would doubt he is going to be back next year although they have not dropped his rights. All of the other three should be back. Schaber, the team captain, is a no-brainer. Caron has signed with the NHL's Minnesota Wild but after missing much of last year with injury, I think the Wild return him for another year of junior. And Maschmeyer's 35 points from the blueline last year should earn him a spot as well.


Kelowna:
Tyson Barrie (D), Adam Brown (G), Mitchell Callahan (F), Cody Chikie (F), Kevin Smith (D), Andreas Stene (F)

Barrie (Colorado Avalanche) and Callahan (Detroit Red Wings) have signed pro contracts and can be considered gone. Andreas Stene was released. That leaves Smith, Chikie and Brown as the only candidates and they should all be safe.


Kootenay:
Joe Antilla (F), Cody Eakin (F), Jesse Ismond (F), Nathan Lieuwen (G), James Martin (D), Brayden McNabb (D)

Cody Eakin signed with the Washington Capitals and is gone. Brayden McNabb has signed with the Buffalo Sabres and he's gone too. That leaves Antilla, Ismond, Lieuwen, and Martin as returnees, with a decent chance that Lieuwen could sign with the Buffalo Sabres and be gone. If that happens, the other three should be safe in their spots. If Lieuwen is back, the Ice have a tough decision to make. I suspect Martin's job may be the one in jeopardy in that case as there are 4 other returning defencemen besides him, and the Ice need forwards Antilla and Ismond more.


Lethbridge:
Jacob Berglund (F), Cam Braes (F), Austin Fyten (F), Cason Machacek (D), Brody Sutter (F), Dylan Tait (G)

Jacob Berglund was released. All the others should return although I suspect Tait won't have a spot as overage backup to Brandon Anderson. That leaves Braes, Fyten, Machacek, and Sutter to compete for three spots. I would bet on Machacek being the odd man out there as there are many other veteran defencemen on the team and the Hurricanes need the offence provided by those three forwards a lot more.


Medicine Hat:
Sam Dezman (F), Deven Dubyk (G), Cole Grbavac (F), Matthew Konan (D), Sebastian Owuya (D), Tyler Pitlick (F), Scott Ramsay (D), Kellan Tochkin (F), Linden Vey (F)

Lots of 19 year olds from last year on that list, but Tochkin (Vancouver Canucks), Pitlick (Edmonton Oilers) and Vey (Los Angeles Kings) have signed pro deals and are almost certainly gone. Owuya was replaced in the import draft so presumably is not coming back as a two-spotter. Dezman has missed so much of his career with concussion symptoms that I'm not even sure he's going to come back to play in the league again. Dubyk is almost certainly not going to be on the team as overage backup to Tyler Bunz, so he should get dealt somewhere. That probably leaves Grbavac, Konan, and Ramsay with the three spots if Ramsay is able to return from last year's concussion.


Moose Jaw:
Collin Bowman (D), Antonin Honejsek (F), Brett Lyon (F), Jesse Paradis (F), Sebastien Svendsen (F)

Normally you could ignore overage imports because teams are so reluctant to use "two spots" on them, but the Warriors only drafted one new import in last week's draft when they could have drafted two. To me, this seems a pretty good indication that they plan to bring back either Svendsen or Honejsek as an overager. Which one of the two it is, is harder to guess as they both had very good offensive numbers last year with the Warriors. But let's say one spot goes to one of those two guys. Then Collin Bowman is a no-brainer for another spot. That leaves either Lyon or Paradis for the third spot and really, that's kind of a no-brainer as well since Lyon isn't the kind of player you use an overage spot on.


Portland:
Taylor Aronson (D), Riley Boychuk (F), Oliver Gabriel (F), Brett Ponich (D), William Wrenn (D)

Ponich signed with the St. Louis Blues, he's gone. Riley Boychuk could possibly sign with his NHL club and be gone as well, but I think there's a good chance he comes back as an overager instead. Which means the Hawks could be looking at four guys for three spots - Aronson and Wrenn on defence and Boychuk and Gabriel up front. I think it may be one of the two defencemen who gets moved out, since there are 7 returning defencemen on the team and they don't really need two overage guys there. Plus if they lose Niederreiter and Johansen (and maybe Bartschi now too!) to the NHL, they will need the offence that Boychuk and Gabriel can help provide up front.


Prince Albert:
James Bettauer (D), Andrew Herle (F), Brandon Herrod (F), Justin Maylan (F), Jonathan Parker (F), Jamie Tucker (G), Charles Wells (F)

All seven of these guys should be back to compete for spots. Two of them I think are easy eliminations from the competition though, as Herle is well back of the other forwards in terms of what he brings to the team, and Tucker is out too as I'm sure Eric Williams will be the starting goalie in Hockeytown North next year, with a younger backup than the 20 year old Tucker. For the other five, you have to keep Parker and probably Maylan and Herrod too, tons of offence from that trio,. Wells is probably out as his productivity has declined for two straight years and he may not want to play anymore anyway. Bettauer is a decent defenceman but the Raiders just don't need the help on defence as much as they can use the offence from the three forwards.


Prince George:
Spencer Asuchak (F), Cody Carlson (D), James Priestner (G)

I don't see why that can't be the three overagers in Cougarland, with the possible exception of Priestner. I suspect Ty Rimmer is the #1 goalie for the Cougars next year so Priestner will need to earn that backup job away from any younger goalies the Cougars bring in to challenge for it. If Priestner isn't on the team then I suspect they'll be interested in filling his spot with a quality defenceman, especially if they lose blueline anchor Martin Marincin to the AHL.


Red Deer:
Aaron Borejko (D), Josh Cowen (F), Byron Froese (F), Andrej Kudrna (F), Justin Weller (D)

Froese signed with the Chicago Blackhawks and is probably gone. Kudrna was replaced in the import draft so presumably is not coming back. Weller signed with Phoenix but they indicated at the time of the signing that they would return him to Red Deer as an overager, so he's probably back. A trio of Borejko, Cowen, and Weller is a decent combo although the Rebels may not need two overage defencemen and could move Borejko for a forward, or even an overage goalie if they don't think 19 year old Dawson Guhle can carry them in a contending season.


Regina:
Art Bidlevskii (D), Brandon Davidson (D), Damien Ketlo (G), Garrett Mitchell (F)

Mitchell signed with the Washington Capitals and is probably gone. Davidson signed with the Edmonton Oilers but I think there's a decent chance he gets sent back as an overager. Bidlevskii should be back for sure but Ketlo will be in jeopardy if the Pats have any younger goaltenders who challenge last year's combo of Ketlo and Matt Hewitt - who were not all that spectacular last year.


Saskatoon:
Darian Dziurzynski (F), Stefan Elliott (D), Curtis Hamilton (F), Adam Morrison (G), Brayden Schenn (F), Tanner Sohn (D), Jake Trask (F)

Elliott (Colorado Avalanche), Hamilton (Edmonton Oilers), and Schenn (Philadelphia Flyers) are gone to the pros. Sohn spent the 2nd half of last season in Jr A so he may not be in the plans for the Blades. And Morrison has to prove he can be the starter ahead of the new Russian goalie from the QMJHL or else he probably isn't going to be around as an overage backup. Dziurzynski  and Trask should have spots for sure. After that....could be one, two, or no guys left for the third spot.


Seattle:
Erik Bonsor (D), Ryan Button (D), Burke Gallimore (F)

Button has signed with the Boston Bruins and is quite likely gone, although I can see him coming back too. Bonsor and Gallimore should be back, which leaves an open spot if Button is not back. They could use another top-six forward if Marcel Noebels decides to play in Europe, but they definitely need top-four defencemen more than anything else. I don't think poor Calvin Pickard can survive another year of 40+ shots every night.


Spokane:
Corbin Baldwin (D), Jared Cowen (D), Darren Kramer (F), Steven Kuhn (F), Matthew Marantz (F), Kenton Miller (F)

Cowen (Ottawa Senators) is long gone. But the other five should all come back, forcing the Chiefs into at least one tough decision. I think Kenton Miller is probably on the outside looking in, but it's harder to pick between the other four. Kuhn and Marantz are a couple valuable point producing guys up front so they have to keep those guys, but then they have to pick between a veteran defenceman in Baldwin or a popular third line forward in Kramer. Kramer's value to the team may exceed his meager offensive output - do they keep him as a third overage forward instead of Baldwin on defence?


Swift Current:
Brad Hoban (F), Killian Hutt (F), Jordan Peddle (F), Taylor Vause (F), Kyle Verdino (D), Dillon Wagner (F)

All six of these guys should come back in late August looking for spots, so three of them are going to be disappointed. I see a lack of proven scoring being the biggest issue facing the 11-12 Broncos, so do they keep three of Hoban, Hutt (assuming he is able to return from his season-ending concussion last year), Peddle, Wagner, and Vause to address that? Or do they keep Verdino for the veteran help on the blueline? And there is another player, Brenden Silvester, not even listed up there since he missed all of last year with injury - can he return to the WHL? I'm going to guess that they keep Hoban and Vause for sure, plus Hutt if he's able to play. If not, then Verdino.


Tri-City:
Carter Ashton (F), Clinton Atkinson (D), David Conrad (F), Adam Hughesman (F), Matt MacKenzie (D), Drew Owsley (G), Brendan Shinnimin (F), Paul Sohor (D), Brock Sutherland (D), Mason Wilgosh (F)

Ashton signed with the Tampa Bay Lightning, he is gone. But after that this is a hard team to get down to three because of the other nine guys on the list, I think at least 7 of them could/should be in the league next year. Clinton Atkinson I think can be eliminated, he was with the Ams during the playoffs but not much else. And Paul Sohor I think is probably not going to be a top-four d-man on anybody in the league so I think he's out too. But the other seven....tough decisions here. MacKenzie could be signed by his NHL club so there's a possibility he's not back, but other than that all seven of them will be back.

So let's take a look at this: first question is in net, where the Ams will have to decide whether to keep Drew Owsley, or turn the crease over to two highly regarded youngsters in 17 year old Chris Driedger and 16 year old Eric Comrie. If they keep Owsley as an overager, they probably have to trade Driedger since Driedger deserves a chance to play next year and Comrie is a lock to be on the Ams. But if it's a rebuilding time in the Tri-Cities now, why not trade Owsley to a contender (hello, Red Deer?) and go with the two kids? On defence, MacKenzie and Sutherland are both a couple solid guys but you probably only keep one of them, so the other gets moved. And then up front there's a lot of offence in Shinnimin, Hughesman, and Wilgosh, plus I think David Conrad has quietly turned himself into an underrated guy who could play in somebody's top six if he was given that chance. If you move Owsley and one of the defencemen, you can keep two of those forwards, but you still have to move two of them. Decisions, decisions, decisions.


Vancouver:
Michael Burns (F), James Henry (F), Neil Manning (D), Joel Rogers (D), Mark Segal (G), Andrej Stastny (F)

Stastny was replaced in the import draft so presumably is not coming back as a two spot player. Mark Segal has already announced his intention to pursue his education next year, so he is gone as well. That leaves Burns, Henry, Manning, and Rogers for three spots. I think they keep Henry and Manning for sure so that leaves the last spot between Rogers and Burns. I think they have some depth on defence and probably need Burns' 15 goals more, so Rogers could be the odd man out here.


Victoria:
Braden Gamble (G), Curt Gogol (F), Roman Horak (F), Ryan Howse (F), Hayden Rintoul (D), Robin Soudek (F)

Horak and Howse signed with the Calgary Flames and they are both gone. Soudek is likely going to return as a two spot player, which is fine since he scored 25 goals last year and should produce more this year. Rintoul is a lock for a spot since they just traded for him from Kootenay, he brings that WHL championship experience to the blueline. Gogol is a feisty team guy but maybe is not such a good use of an overage spot, while Gamble might not have a job since the team traded for 19 year old Keith Hamilton from Portland earlier this offseason and probably expect Hamilton to be the #1 goalie. So, there might be a opening in Victoria if Gogol and Gamble are both on the outside.


Well, I took a shot at it....I'm sure lots of you will disagree with some of these picks. Comments welcome, as always....