Playoff picture

Just over three weeks remaining 'til playoff time now. A look at the various races still ongoing for the various playoff positions....

Western Conference:

- Vancouver will finish #1. They have a 17 point lead plus two games in hand over their nearest competitor. They will not blow that lead. 9 more points (or lost points for Tri-City) will make it official for the Giants.

- the U.S. division crown and #2 seed is a close, close race between Tri-City and Spokane. The Ams have a two point lead but Spokane has a game in hand, so if the Chiefs win that game then they're tied. There's three more head-to-head games left so there's plenty of drama and potential lead changes to come yet. Spokane has the lead in the season series so the Chiefs would win the tiebreaker (right now anyway) if they finished tied in points and wins.

- the #3 & #4 seeds in the west will be Kelowna plus the loser of the U.S. division race....that part is all but for sure, as there is a 15 point gap between #4 Kelowna and #5 Kamloops/Everett (they're tied) which is not going to be overcome by the Blazers or Silvertips. Kelowna is 7 points back of Spokane for #3 so they still have a shot at #3 if they have a good finish to the season. They have a tough, road-heavy schedule remaining though including an Alberta trip.

- #5 through #7 are wide open, with the Blazers (59), Silvertips (59) and Thunderbirds (58) all within one point of each other and battling for these spots. Seattle plays 10 of their last 12 games at home, you have to think they might have the edge in this race. Plus they play Portland four times. Everett has one game in hand on the Blazers but the Blazers have a slightly easier schedule remaining. Could come down to the final weekend.

- #8 is Prince George's. They're ten points behind #7 and probably aren't going to catch anyone with only 11 games left. So they get the Giants in the first round. Lucky them.

- Chilliwack and Portland will miss the playoffs. It's not mathematical for either of them yet but they are respectively 12 & 14 points out of the playoffs right now and for teams with only 30-some points all year to this point, that kind of comeback just isn't going to happen unless the Cougars plan to lose all their remaining games. And even that might not be enough.


Eastern Conference:

- Calgary will finish #1. They have an 18 point lead on the Blades and will officially lock it up with one more win or Blades loss.

- Saskatoon and Brandon are battling for the East division crown (and #2 seed), with the loser of that race getting #3 seed. The Blades currently have a four point lead in this race, with the Wheat Kings having a game in hand, so it's close. The best part? They play each other three more times yet this season. The outcome of the race could hinge on who gets the most points out of those head-to-head meetings.

- #4 through #7 is pretty much wide open. There's only a five point spread between those four teams (Medicine Hat, Swift Current, Lethbridge, and Kootenay) so the opportunity to finish #4 and start the playoffs at home is still a legitimate option for all those teams. There's also lots of four-point head-to-head games still to be played between the four teams....there's nine games down the stretch featuring two of those four teams playing each other. Apart from that though, Medicine Hat has a very home-friendly schedule remaining, while Kootenay and Lethbridge are the opposite with lots of road games.

- the race for #8 and the last playoff spot is a three-way affair between Prince Albert (58 pts), Edmonton (54 pts) and Regina (52 pts). Most likely none of those teams are going to make up enough points to move up and challenge for 7th, so only one of those three is going to make the playoffs, and whoever it is has to play Calgary in the first round. Regina's in a freefall lately but they do have two games in hand on the Raiders and Oil Kings so they can get right back into the race with a couple extra wins there. Edmonton plays six of their last ten games against Red Deer, Prince George, and Moose Jaw, so there's a possibility of a number of points from those games. Prince Albert and Regina have tougher opponents than that. Should be a good race.

- Red Deer and Moose Jaw will definitely miss the playoffs. As with Chilliwack/Portland, it's not official yet (it will be soon for the Warriors though) but they are both so far back that it's not very realistic to expect a surge into the postseason.


And of course we can't forget the conference-independant race for #1 overall between Vancouver and Calgary. Calgary currently has an 8 point lead on the Giants for the overall crown, but the Giants have six (yes, SIX) games in hand on the Hitmen so the Giants control their own destiny here. Four wins out of those six games will put them into a tie. There is one head-to-head game remaining, March 6 in Vancouver. Tomorrow night the Giants will start an insane stretch which will see them play 8 games in 10 days (!!!) and make up four of those games in hand on the Hitmen, so we'll see where the Giants are and what they have left in the tank at the end of that.

Funny how similar the conference are....runaway #1's, tight races for #2/#3, close packs of teams battling in the #5-#7 spots, etc.