Just looking at the standings here while updating my playoff picture post (below) and noticed that you can pretty easily separate the teams so far into a few groups in each conference....
East:
Group #1: Calgary - nobody in the East is going to catch them. Their only race really is with Vancouver for #1 overall.
Group #2: Saskatoon & Brandon. They're not going to catch Calgary but these two will battle it out for first in the East division and the #2/#3 seeds in the East conference. Saskatoon currently has an 8 point lead so Brandon has some work to do.
Group #3: Medicine Hat, Swift Current, Lethbridge, & Kootenay. Five points currently separate these four teams in the battle for spots #4 through #7 in the conference. Whoever comes out ahead in the pack gets the #4 seed and home ice in the first round. None of them are likely to catch Saskatoon or Brandon for #3 seed, nor are they likely to fall into the next group battling for the #8 spot.
Group #4: Prince Albert, Regina, Edmonton, Red Deer. The four contenders for the last playoff spot; the first three are all tied with 52 points; Red Deer is 8 points back but they have 2 - 4 games in hand on the other three so they can still catch up. Barring a big surge by anyone which moves them up into group #3, only one of these four teams is going to make the playoffs.
Group #5: Moose Jaw. They're not mathematically out of it yet but realistically, the season is over for the Warriors. They're almost 20 points out of a playoff spot right now with only 19 games left to play. Not going to happen.
West:
Group #1: Vancouver - same as Calgary. They're not going to be caught in their own conference so their only job down the stretch is to beat out Calgary for #1 overall.
Group #2: Tri-City & Spokane. Battle for the U.S. division crown and the #2 seed that goes with it. Loser probably gets the #3 seed ahead of Kelowna. Americans currently have a 6 point lead in this group but the Chiefs have three games in hand. Bunch of head-to-head four-point meetings coming up too.
Group #3: Kelowna. In a group by themselves because they're not going to be any better than the #3 seed at best and more likely #4 considering the points/games in hand situation between them and Tri-City/Spokane.
Group #4: Kamloops, Everett, & Seattle. Three teams who aren't likely going to challenge for the #4 spot and home ice in the first round, but aren't likely to drop out of the playoffs either. Between the three of them, they'll probably split up the #5 - #7 seeds. Kamloops currently has 5 & 7 point leads on the other two but have played three more games than both of them too.
Group #5: Prince George, Chilliwack, & Portland. The battle for the last playoff spot. Might not be much of a battle unless the Cougars hit a rough patch, because the Cougars currently have 8 and 14 point leads on their two opponents. Portland has four games in hand which they can use to whittle their deficit to 6 points if they won all those games.
3 comments:
Unfortunately for the Hitmen, the Giants will win the regular season title and home ice advantage through out the playoffs.
At this point, that seems likely, considering the games in hand situation the Giants have.
There is one head-to-head meeting left; Calgary needs to win that game and also hope the Giants lose a couple more games than the Hitmen do along the way.
Too bad Saskatoon had to have a 1-4-0 start to the regular season. Since then, they have a very Vancouver or Calgary like 38-8-4 record. Since the new year, they are 13-1-1-1 scoring 82 goals in that span or over 5gpg while allowing just 33.
Every team that plays them come in to the game thinking they can win it because of the Blades lack of "star power" or huge point producer. It could be argued that if Lorne Molleken didn't just roll 4 lines and roll 3 lines on the PP that they would have a couple higher point getters in the scoring race. Heck Lorne even rolls all 3 dmen pairings on the PP.
Time will tell how the season winds up but I'm thinking if all unfolds according to how many thing it should, there will be some doozy matchups in the 2nd round of the playoffs!
Lethbridge at Calgary
Brandon at Saskatoon
WOW
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