Is a team with an .800 record on the strength of beating up the league's patsies really that much better than a team with a .600 record against stronger competition?
What I've done is calculated the average strength of each team's opponents this year, by averaging the winning percentage of all of a team's opponents on the day they faced that opponent. That bold part is key because if you've played a team twice, their current winning percentage was not the same both times you played them.
Here's the rankings:
| Current Win % | Avg Opp Win % | |
| Edmonton | 0.500 | 0.648 |
| Portland | 0.667 | 0.618 |
| Tri-City | 0.818 | 0.604 |
| Everett | 0.750 | 0.593 |
| Moose Jaw | 0.692 | 0.587 |
| Medicine Hat | 0.615 | 0.559 |
| Red Deer | 0.462 | 0.552 |
| Calgary | 0.769 | 0.516 |
| Regina | 0.429 | 0.510 |
| Chilliwack | 0.375 | 0.506 |
| Kelowna | 0.591 | 0.504 |
| Kootenay | 0.385 | 0.485 |
| Brandon | 0.500 | 0.480 |
| Prince George | 0.182 | 0.475 |
| Prince Albert | 0.429 | 0.471 |
| Lethbridge | 0.333 | 0.462 |
| Swift Current | 0.577 | 0.441 |
| Vancouver | 0.692 | 0.440 |
| Spokane | 0.611 | 0.429 |
| Kamloops | 0.600 | 0.394 |
| Seattle | 0.318 | 0.380 |
| Saskatoon | 0.750 | 0.372 |
So, you can see that Edmonton may only be a .500 team in the standings, but they've compiled that record despite having to play opponents who are, on average, .648 teams:
Sep 19: Calgary (1.000) - L
Sep 23: Kootenay (.500) - SOL
Sep 25: Saskatoon (.750) - W
Sep 26: Prince Albert (.667) - W
Sep 30: Medicine Hat (.833) - W
Oct 2: Moose Jaw (.600) - W
Oct 4: Medicine Hat (.600) - SOL
Oct 9: Lethbridge (.250) - L
Oct 10: Swift Current (.625) - W
Oct 12: Brandon (.500) - L
Oct 15: Portland (.700) - L
Oct 17: Swift Current (.600) - W
Oct 18: Saskatoon (.700) - L
Oct 21: Calgary (.750) - L
The Oil Kings have only played one team that was under .500 at the time. Granted, they lost that game, but this is still a tough schedule.
And then there's Saskatoon. They look strong at .750 but they've compiled that 8-2-0-2 record against the weakest competition in the league:
Sep 18: Regina (.000) - W
Sep 23: Regina (.000) - SOL
Sep 25: Edmonton (.250) - L
Sep 27: Regina (.250) - W
Oct 2: Prince Albert (.400) - SOL
Oct 3: Brandon (.600) - L
Oct 7: Kootenay (.429) - W
Oct 9: Red Deer (.375) - W
Oct 10: Lethbridge (.333) - W
Oct 17: Calgary (.778) - W
Oct 18: Edmonton (.583) - W
Oct 21: Regina (.462) - W
In Saskatoon's defence, they ARE 2-1 against teams over .500, so they are beating some good teams too. But they're definitely padding their record against weak competition so far.
As for Seattle....well, they're only .318 despite playing only .380 opponents, so you can pretty conclusively state that they're not very good since they can't even beat bad teams. And Tri-City is .818 despite playing the third-toughest schedule so far, so that looks better and better on them.
Just something to think about....
9 comments:
Not really a valid arguement since good teams should be the so called bad teams. It all evens out in the end my friend and the so-called good teams heading in to the season are the good teams right now with the exception of Brandon who is off to a slowish start.
Calgary, Saskatoon, Vancouver, Tri City, Spokane and Everett were all expected to be good and are and ARE beating teams they should be thus far. Don't really see that changing. Of course the "good teams" win pecentage will go down a bit when faced against other "good teams", thats how it go's! lol
Kind of a weird point you are trying to prove here Alan. I respect your blog and it is the first one I read each day but as a fellow father, I'd suggest you get some sleep instead of doing posts such as this.
Take Care
Tyler
PA
No, it actually doesn't all even out in the end. Not unless every team in the league played a balanced schedule, which they don't.
Teams that benefit from playing in a division with several weak teams will get more points in that division (due to more games against the weak opponents) than they would playing in a stronger division with fewer weak opponents.
What I've tried to show here is which teams have benefited most from a weak schedule so far. I think it's a pretty straightforward and simple point myself.
Only Blades fans would have a big issue with this, think....oh wait....I get it now. :)
Take that Tyler! I thought it was straight forward information, The one thing it does not take is the back to back games, or 3 games in 4 days effect. Watch out the Portland. They have a good record, played some good teams, AND played them in their BARN! 7 road wins so far. Too bad they can't beat Tri - Cities. One point here. Twice the Hawks have played in Everett, when the Silvertips have had multiple days off between games ,( like a wek and 5 days ), while the Winterhawks played 3 games. Good info Alan and congrats once again
brian in Sherwood
I agree with Tyler on this one
Take a look at the NFL .... The Washington Redskins have played a winless team every week when they played the Redskins. So whatever their record is, the strength of schedule means sonething!
Brian in Sherwood
Thanks Brian, that should really clear it up for Tyler and Anon.
bs
none of those stats matter because in the east conference, Brandon, Saskatoon, Calgary, SC, MH and Moose Jaw are the top 6 teams and everyone else will be bumping up the rear this year!
Tyler
"And Tri-City is .818 despite playing the third-toughest schedule so far, so that looks better and better on them."
Wow not bad for a team that's going to finish 4th in their division, eh?
So Alan I'd like to formally give you the chance to redo your US Division predictions.
So Seattle has played Tri, Por, and Evt twice each and Van, Cal, Spok, and Brandon once each yet their opponents avg winning pct is only .380 because they played PG once?
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