Predictions - review and playoffs

Fearless playoff prediction time.....but first, a review of my regular season picks, to see if I have any idea what I am talking about when I do this....

Back in September, I saw the East division finishing this way:

1. Brandon

2. Saskatoon

3. Moose Jaw

4. Swift Current

5. Regina (miss playoffs)

6. Prince Albert (miss playoffs)

I actually did pretty well on this one - Moose Jaw and Swift Current were reversed in the actual order of finish, but only by one point. And Regina and Prince Albert were the other way around too, but again, only by two points.

I had the Central as:

1. Calgary

2. Medicine Hat

3. Kootenay

4. Edmonton

5. Red Deer (miss playoffs)

6. Lethbridge (miss playoffs)

I got #2 and #3 reversed here, but only by one point, so I'll take it. But I really overestimated Edmonton and underestimated Red Deer. I did say I thought it would be close but hey, in the end, it wasn't. Oh well.

I had the B.C. division finishing as:

1. Vancouver

2. Kelowna

3. Kamloops

4. Chilliwack

5. Prince George (miss playoffs)

Nailed it. Vancouver was not as good as I thought they'd be, but still in first.

And lastly, I picked the U.S. division as:

1. Portland

2. Everett

3. Spokane

4. Tri-City

5. Seattle (miss playoffs)

Well, I got Everett, Spokane, and Seattle right, but I switched up #1 and #4 so obviously this was by far the worst of the division picks. I think I read a bit too much into Portland's hot start to the season and obviously did not give Tri-City nearly enough credit for what they could do. I use a lot of metrics in making these predictions - age, size, experience, past performance of players, etc - and Tri-City did not rank that high in any of the categories. Which just goes to show that numbers do lie sometimes.

Now, for the first round playoff predictions.....

Eastern Conference:

#1 Calgary vs #8 Moose Jaw:

Calgary is a jaw-dropping 20-1-1 (that's .932) since January 31 and have a goalie who has won 9 straight games against Moose Jaw with a 1.32 GAA and .945 save percentage. Moose Jaw struggled to a sub-.500 record down the stretch and their offence lost nearly 1.25 goals per game after the trade deadline compared to their promising start. There just isn't an upset here. Calgary in four.

#2 Brandon vs #7 Swift Current:

The Broncos had a nice little surge late in the season to get into the playoffs, but their reward is a first round date with the league's 2nd-best team down the stretch, and the Broncos won't even get to play a playoff game in their own rink this year unless they beat the Wheat Kings. Which isn't going to happen. Brandon in five.

#3 Saskatoon vs #6 Red Deer:

Since the trade deadline, these two teams have been roughly equal - Saskatoon was .617 and Red Deer was .603. But Red Deer was 1-6 in March, and did not fare overly well against the Blades this year. If the February Rebels (.714) show up in this series then we might have a series but I'm thinking the Rebels are going to have to wait until 2011 to get their first playoff series win since 2004. Blades in five.

#4 Kootenay vs #5 Medicine Hat:

Should be by far the best series in the Eastern conference in the first round. All the other series have some (or a lot) of elements of a mismatch but these two are pretty evenly matched in most categories. They finished one point apart in the regular season. The Tigers have a slightly better offence, but Kootenay has a slightly better defence. Medicine Hat is older, but Kootenay is bigger. They split their six games this year, 3-3 (oddly enough, the visiting team won all six games). Even their playoff experience is identical. How can you not pick this one to go seven games? I'm going to go with the Tigers pulling out the "upset" with a game seven win in Cranbrook.

Western Conference:

#1 Tri-City vs #8 Chilliwack:

If you like to pick a big upset in the first round, this is the series you want to pick, I think. The Bruins were 3-1 against the Americans this year, and the Americans were much better in the first half of the season (.733 pre-trade deadline) than the second half (.586 since the deadline). I didn't give the Americans enough respect in the regular season predictions and got burned....do I dare do it again? I'm going to say.....no. I'll give the Bruins some respect too though, and say an upset would not surprise me. But I'm going with Americans in six.

#2 Vancouver vs #7 Kamloops:

It says something about the Giants that they can go on a two month road trip and still wrap up their 5th straight division title with a month to play in the season. That said though, they are fortunate that division title comes with a top-2 seed because they are only the #5 team in the conference otherwise and would be facing a much tougher opponent otherwise. Kamloops will not be a pushover though, I don't think.....the Giants may have won 6 of the 8 meetings this year but one was in OT and three were in a shootout, which of course there aren't any of in the playoffs. And Kamloops has the better goaltending, which is so important in the playoffs. I think the Giants are stronger everywhere else, which is why they will prevail, but I expect to see Kamloops come closer to winning this series than any series they've been in since 2005. Giants in seven.

#3 Everett vs #6 Kelowna:

If there's a lower seed that I would NOT want to play, it's Kelowna. I thought they underachieved this year, but they had a lot of injury problems which may have contributed to that. They're mostly healthy now and have a dozen players who won the WHL title last year. All that being said, I don't think you can easily overlook Everett's .786 performance since the trade deadline either. They are the best defensive team in the league and good defence may be boring but it wins titles. I'm going to have to opt against the upset and pick the Silvertips in six.

#4 Spokane vs #5 Portland:

On paper, this gives Ice vs Tigers a run for the best series of the first round. Only four points separate them, and while Portland won five of the eight meetings this year, six of those meetings were decided by two goals or less. I think we should see some exciting, physical, very close hockey games in this series. One major hurdle for me in picking this series is the question mark about the health of Chiefs star Kyle Beach. If he is out for the series, I think the Chiefs are in trouble. If he plays, then the Chiefs probably have an edge. Right now I am going to say Chiefs in seven, but if we find out more about Beach's status prior to the start of the series on Saturday, I may change that prediction one way or the other.