Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Shot differential

After a few games in the last few weeks which featured huge shot differentials, I got to wondering....which teams in the league average the most shots per game? The most shots against per game? And how does usually outshooting your opponent affect how often your team wins? It would stand to reason that the team with the most shots will win the game more often on average since they have more chances to score.....and the stats bear this out, as it turns out:

Vancouver: 33.11 shots for; 21.68 shots against. Diff: 11.43. Win%: 0.696 (3)
Calgary: 34.21 sh. for; 24.1 sh. against. Diff: 10.1. Win%: 0.690 (4)
Spokane: 33.12 sh. for; 23.04 sh. against. Diff: 10.08. Win%: 0.820 (1)
Brandon: 33.93 sh. for; 26.44 sh. against. Diff: 7.48. Win%: 0.648 (6)
Tri-City: 32.6 sh. for; 27.36 sh. against. Diff: 5.24. Win%: 0.760 (2)
Regina: 33.14 sh. for; 28.17 sh. against. Diff: 4.97. Win%: 0.621 (8)
Medicine Hat: 29.81 sh. for; 25.67 sh. against. Diff: 4.15. Win%: 0.593 (T-9)
Lethbridge: 27.59 sh. for; 24.34 sh. against. Diff: 3.24. Win%: 0.655 (5)
Swift Current: 29.79 sh. for; 27.14 sh. against. Diff: 2.64. Win%: 0.625 (7)
Kamloops: 26.58 sh. for; 24.31 sh. against. Diff: 2.27. Win%: 0.538 (T-12)
Chilliwack: 28.14 sh. for; 27.04 sh. against. Diff: 1.11. Win%: 0.518 (16)
Kootenay: 31.21 sh. for; 30.25 sh. against. Diff: 0.96. Win%: 0.589 (11)
Kelowna: 26.81 sh. for; 27.04 sh. against. Diff: -0.22. Win%: 0.593 (T-9)
Everett: 27.64 sh. for; 28.25 sh. against. Diff: -0.61. Win%: 0.536 (14)
Moose Jaw: 28.73 sh. for; 31 sh. against. Diff: -2.27. Win%: 0.538 (T-12)
Seattle: 27.75 sh. for; 31.08 sh. against. Diff: -3.33. Win%: 0.521 (15)
Saskatoon: 28.37 sh. for; 31.89 sh. against. Diff: -3.52. Win%: 0.389 (19)
Red Deer: 23.5 sh. for; 31.2 sh. against. Diff: -7.7. Win%: 0.317 (21)
Prince Albert: 25.24 sh. for; 32.97 sh. against. Diff: -7.72. Win%: 0.414 (18)
Edmonton: 24.25 sh. for; 34.36 sh. against. Diff: -10.11. Win%: 0.429 (17)
Prince George: 23.29 sh. for; 34.54 sh. against. Diff: -11.25. Win%: 0.357 (20)
Portland: 23.71 sh. for; 39.46 sh. against. Diff: -15.75. Win%: 0.208 (22)

In other words, on average Vancouver is outshooting their opponents by 11.4 shots per game every night. And that is reflected in the standings - by winning percentage, they are the 3rd best team in the league. On the other side of the coin, Portland gets outshot by almost 16 shots a night on average - and they are also the worst team in the league by win%.

So we can say that generally speaking, the best teams outshoot their opponents more often, and by greater numbers. Nothing earth-shaking there, I don't think. But there's the numbers so far this year.

To add to this, there have been 9 games this season where one team was outshot by 25 shots or more. That team won two of the games and lost the other seven:

11/24/2007: Chilliwack outshot Portland 68-30. Portland won game 4-3
11/10/2007: Seattle outshot Portland 54-17. Seattle won game 3-1
11/23/2007: Calgary outshot Edmonton 53-19. Calgary won game 5-3
10/26/2007: Vancouver outshot Moose Jaw 56-26. Vancouver won game 4-3
11/24/2007: Calgary outshot Red Deer 47-17. Calgary won game 2-0
9/29/2007: Vancouver outshot Kelowna 43-14. Vancouver won game 5-0
10/17/2007: Chilliwack outshot Seattle 46-19. Chilliwack won game 6-2
9/22/2007: Spokane outshot Prince George 50-23. Spokane won game 7-2
11/18/2007: Calgary outshot Prince Albert 45-18. Prince Albert won game 4-3

There have also been 63 games this year where one team was outshot by 15 shots or more. The number of times each team has been on the short end of that stick:

Prince George: 10
Prince Albert: 8
Edmonton: 7
Portland: 7
Red Deer: 6
Seattle: 5
Moose Jaw: 4
Swift Current: 3
Everett: 2
Kelowna: 2
Saskatoon: 2
Brandon: 1
Chilliwack: 1
Kamloops: 1
Kootenay: 1
Lethbridge: 1
Medicine Hat: 1
Tri-City: 1

And the number of times on the larger end of the 15+ shot differential:

Calgary: 10
Vancouver: 8
Tri-City: 7
Medicine Hat: 5
Regina: 5
Brandon: 4
Lethbridge: 4
Kootenay: 3
Seattle: 3
Spokane: 3
Chilliwack: 2
Everett: 2
Kamloops: 2
Moose Jaw: 2
Swift Current: 2
Prince George: 1

I believe I will let the shots-on-goal point die now.....I've beaten it to death three times over in this post alone.

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