The first big move of the pre-deadline period came yesterday in that deal between Regina and Lethbridge, with Regina serving notice that they are going to try to move up in the standings, while Lethbridge making it official that they are out of the race and heading for a rebuild.
So, where does everyone else stand? And which players might be on the move in the next four-plus weeks? Let's take a shot at figuring it out....for the most part I am going to focus only on 20 year olds and 19 year olds who are not likely to be back in the league next year. I'm not going to bother speculating on most players 18 and younger since they are typically not the ones moving to contenders....Ashton yesterday being a notable exception....
First, the teams I think are definite sellers:
Edmonton: they are probably out of the playoff picture too - 10 points back right now anyway. I'd expect them to be sellers and if they are, they have a couple good assets they could consider moving. Top of my list would be 19 year old forwards Brent Raedeke and Tomas Vincour, both of whom are likely gone to the pros next year. Vincour's value suffers due to being an import but he has to be an upgrade on somebody's import somewhere. And there should be a good return for Raedeke if the Oil Kings want to move him, I think he's one of the better players in the league that most fans don't think of in that top-players category. After those two guys, I think it drops off unless the Kings want to move overage goalie Torrie Jung or overage forward Brett Breitkreuz. Jung could be a good starter for a team looking to upgrade that position, or at the very least, a solid insurance policy as a backup goalie if somebody wants to use an overage spot on a backup. And Breitkreuz has struggled this year but he's a gritty forward with some offensive upside, and contenders always want those guys. So, there will be interest in him if somebody has an overage spot in need of an upgrade.
Lethbridge: the Canes are 12 points out of a playoff spot and all but packed it in yesterday by trading their best forward. Who's next to go? Their biggest chip has to be defenceman Luca Sbisa, a 19 year old with 40-some games of NHL experience under his belt. Sbisa's an import though, which restricts his value somewhat, and he's also potentially going to miss an awful lot of time over the next two months while playing for Switzerland at the World Juniors and possibly the Olympics as well. But if you're trading for him, you're probably looking for his help in March through May, not so much in January and February - so I think there's still a high value on him. It's also interesting that the top three overall teams in the league all happen to have import spots open and could acquire Sbisa without having to move another import out - so I think something happens with this guy. Lethbridge would be crazy to hang onto an asset like this when they're not going to make the playoffs even with him. Amongst Lethbridge's other players, I don't see any other 19 year olds that they'd likely want to trade - Reddington and Maxwell have value but should be their overagers next year. That leaves a couple overagers - goaltender Linden Rowat and forward Carter Bancks. Similar to Edmonton's Jung/Breitkreuz duo, Rowat could make a very nice insurance policy for a contender, and Bancks is a good two-way character forward, the kind of guy lots of teams want. There might be some interest in both those guys.
Prince George: they're out of it. They know it, we all know it. They are 10 points worse than the next-worst team in the league, not just their conference, and they are headed for last overall and having both the Forsberg brothers in Cougars colours in 2011-12. So they're definitely going to be sellers, I'm just not sure they have a lot to offer since most of their team is fairly young and/or not very good. Overage defenceman Dallas Jackson may attract some interest but probably not a steep price in return, given his age. And 19 year old forward Marek Viedensky is probably going to have some interested parties around the league, given his size (who doesn't like 6'3" centermen?), point totals (he leads the Cougars in scoring) and the fact that he's a plus player on a team of almost exclusively big minuses. But Viedensky is an import and that restricts his value as well. Only teams with an open import spot can take him, unless the Cougars want to take an import back in return. So that reduces his trade value to the point where the Cougars might not get enough for him to make it worth trading him.
And now the probable/definite buyers:
Brandon: they are hosting the Memorial Cup, so they are the only team in the WHL that knows they're going to have a guaranteed shot at winning the biggest prize of all. There is no reason for them to not pull out all the stops this year, especially considering the losses they are probably facing going into next season. Might as well go all-out this year. My guess is the top priority here may be improving the depth on the blueline....another top-four guy would fit in well, I think. They have lots of scoring already and seem set in net as well, but if the prices are reasonable and they can keep an opponent from bulking up, I wouldn't rule out trades at any position here.
Calgary: they weren't expected to contend yet again this year but they find themselves holding down #1 overall two weeks before Christmas. IMO their "blue chip" prospect pool is a little shallower than it has been in the past, which might limit what they can afford to give up, but I would expect the Hitmen to be looking for a top-end defenceman, a top four or even top pair guy, somebody who can move the puck. There is too much inexperience on the blueline here to go deep in the playoffs otherwise. I would say Sbisa is a good fit here if these teams wanted to make a big intra-division trade like that. Elsewhere....the Hitmen are set in net but another top-six forward wouldn't hurt either. But definitely defence has to be the top priority.
Medicine Hat: I don't know whether the Tigers belong here or not....they are up with the Calgarys and Brandons in the standings now so I guess they could add some big names and try to win this year too. They do have 8 19 year olds (including six 19 year old forwards) though so if they're NOT going to go for it then they really should move out a couple at the deadline in return for younger players. Something just tells me the Tigers might belong more in the tinker-but-no-major-deals category.
Regina: I wouldn't have put them in this category before yesterday but the Ashton deal served notice that they are going to try to do something this year. I think the defence here is the next to get some attention; they look set up front but they are really short of high-end guys on defence and four of their seven players there are rookies. Experienced top-four defencemen needed....but they aren't cheap, especially when almost every contending team in the league would love to have more, and how much more of the future do the Pats want to give up? I'd also question whether they have the goaltending to get them through four rounds of the playoffs. Maybe this is where a guy like Torrie Jung would work out, although it means they'd have to move one of their existing overagers.
Saskatoon: 2nd overall right now, and first in win %. The Blades have been a streaky, unpredictable team at times this year - sometimes unbeatable, sometimes looking shaky. When they're hot though, they're hot....and they don't have a lot of big weaknesses. If anything, I think they'd be looking for a top-six forward - makes one wonder whether they were in the Ashton trade talks and Regina beat them out. Another veteran depth body or two on defence and up front never hurt either, depending on the price.
Spokane: slow start, but being the hottest team in the league the last couple weeks has moved them into 4th overall - by win % anyway. Do they make a move for this year? I think they will, since it could be easier this year for a Western Conference team to make the Memorial Cup. If Brandon wins the East, then the winner of the West is going to the Memorial Cup regardless of whether they win the WHL or not. The Chiefs have as good a chance as anyone in the West. I think another top-six forward would definitely be a good acquisition here. Their defensive top four are strong but another #5/#6 guy for depth isn't a bad idea either.
Tri-Cities: tops in the West right now by a good margin, the Ams are combining some balanced scoring with good defensive play as well. They also already made a key move a few weeks back in acquiring defenceman Eric Mestery. I wonder if maybe the Americans are in more of a wait-and-see mode now, waiting to see what their competitors do first and then evaluating whether they need to answer back with a move of their own. Certainly I would say that right now, the Americans don't NEED to do anything. They look pretty strong as-is.
Vancouver: always contenders, although just the other day, coach Don Hay was wondering whether this year's team has what it takes to achieve the goals that past groups have. Could be an indication that there's some significant moves coming here, or it could mean they're more likely to do nothing and just take what they can get this year. There's some quality younger players on this team and maybe they don't want to blow that up. If they were going to make a move, I think another veteran defenceman would be on the wish list since there's not a lot of veterans on the defence here now.
Most everybody else is somewhere in the middle, so I've tried to split them into two groups - teams who I think will either miss the playoffs or be first round cannon fodder for a contender (which means they are probably interested in being sellers, depending on the prices being offered), and teams who I think might not be contenders but who could possibly win a playoff round or two if they made some more minor adjustments. Those teams might not be in the hunt for major moves but might look to add one "name" player, or just a couple depth players perhaps.
Miss playoffs/first round fodder:
Chilliwack: much better now than they started the season, but I'd still be surprised if the Bruins can climb enough by late March to avoid somebody like Tri-Cities or Spokane in the first round. However, I also don't think there's much here that they would WANT to trade, because a lot of this team can come back next year and should be much-improved. I think the Bruins might decide to ride the season out and see how far they can get with this lineup. IMO anyway.
Kamloops: they should have been better than this but their season has been a disaster. They are ripe for a purging of more veterans....the problem is that I don't think they have a lot of veterans who are not returning next year and whom other teams would have a lot of interest in. Definitely forwards Tyler Shattock and C.J. Stretch, but Shattock could very well come back next year as an overage (he doesn't have to be NHL signed until May 2011) so perhaps the Blazers don't want to part with him. Stretch is an overager who could have some value to a contender though, as is goaltender Kurtis Mucha if the Blazers want to move him. Other than that though....maybe defencemen Curtis Kulchar and Zak Stebner might have some interest around the league as depth additions if the Blazers want to move them instead of keeping them as next year's possible overagers. Forward Shayne Wiebe they have to keep for next year. Mark Hall has little value. That's it...
Kootenay: another team I thought would be better than they are....and another team that might not have much in the way of 19 & 20 year olds to offer up in a trade. I doubt there's much interest in Todd Mathews (G-19), Ryan Molle (D-20), or Dominik Pascovsky (F-19). 19 year old forwards Steele Boomer, Matt Fraser, and Kevin King would probably draw some interest, but they are also all going to be overagers in the league next year so maybe the Ice would rather keep them. That leaves overage forward Dustin Sylvester, who would surely be an upgrade at forward for some team's overage situation...if the Ice wanted to move him, that is.
Red Deer: I thought for sure the Rebels had to improve, if only because of the amount of young talent they have. And they have improved over last year, but probably not enough to be assured of a playoff spot.....and they're looking at being first round fodder for a Saskatoon, Calgary, or Brandon if they do make it. If they want to make a move for next year, I think Willie Coetzee is the likely first guy to be targeted by contenders. He has signed in the NHL so he might not be back, and he's averaging 1.5 points per game this year for a team that hasn't scored a lot. Overage forward Nathan Green is another good target for acquisition, although he is currently out long-term with a broken leg and likely won't play again until after the trade deadline....which might scare off some suitors.
Seattle: with Chilliwack and Kamloops, another team that is likely to struggle to make the playoffs, only to face a powerhouse opponent in the first round if they did make it. Also another team though that probably doesn't have any 19 year olds with a lot of value. Maybe defenceman Stefan Warg, but he is an import, which restricts his trade value. Overage forward Prab Rai might have some interest.
And now the teams who could go for more minor improvements, and hope to win a round or two as opposed to trying to win the whole thing this year....
Everett: lots of good younger players on this team....might not want to do much to mess around with that.
Kelowna: same with Everett, Kelowna's losses for next year are not staggering. They probably return four of their five 19 year olds, so most of their losses are their overagers, who have not been huge contributors this year. I bet they don't do much and try to win a round with this lineup.
Moose Jaw: good 17 & 18 year olds on this team, they don't need to blow everything up for a run this year. Maybe move a couple of the veterans they have and further strengthen their younger age groups, and they could really be a force next year. They could get a small fortune back if they wanted to trade Travis Hamonic, for example.
Portland: cooled a little after a strong start but they should still be a 3rd-4th-5th place team in the conference, good for a chance at a playoff round or two. Also a team whose strength is in its 17 & 18 year olds, not its 19 year olds. The 19 year olds they do have are probably good bets to return again next year so I might not do anything at all if I were the Hawks. Try to win a round or two this year for experience and then really go for it next year.
Prince Albert: coming on a bit after a bad start, the Raiders are now a middle-of-the-pack team in the Eastern conference. Not going to be contenders but they could be a team that thinks it can win in the first round anyway. Might just tinker as opposed to anything major. Could maybe upgrade Fredrik Cedergren's import spot since he's not contributing a lot and won't be back next year. Good spot for Viedensky or Vincour?
Swift Current: made a move to shore up their goaltending last week after dropping nearly out of the playoff picture. Another team that is going to get most of their 19 year olds back (of their six, only Novotny isn't in the 2010-11 overage picture IMO) so they may just try to push into the middle of the pack and get into position to face another of the middle of the pack teams in the first round, win a playoff round, etc.
That's how I see it anyway....fire away if you don't agree.
2 comments:
Pats trade again!
cedegren from the raiders was just released??? interesting to see if were upgrading
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