Stats stuff

Today's stats post is brought to you by the letters P, I, and M. As in, Penalties In Minutes. A look at all things penalty-related around the league today...

First, does taking a lot of penalties make you a bad team? The common sense answer might seem to be that yes, lots of PIM is bad because it usually leads to opposing powerplays, which leads to goals against. But the stats don't bear that out:

Team	Win %	PIM/G
Saskatoon Blades	0.750	21.07 (3)
Calgary Hitmen	0.734	18.69 (11)
Tri-City Americans	0.724	14.97 (22)
Spokane Chiefs	0.679	15.64 (19)
Brandon Wheat Kings	0.636	16.24 (17)
Vancouver Giants	0.621	19.94 (6)
Portland Winterhawks	0.609	18.34 (12)
Medicine Hat Tigers	0.606	19.42 (9)
Everett Silvertips	0.589	17.61 (15)
Moose Jaw Warriors	0.567	15.8 (18)
Prince Albert Raiders	0.544	17.76 (14)
Swift Current Broncos	0.531	16.28 (16)
Regina Pats	0.530	18 (13)
Red Deer Rebels	0.517	19.9 (7)
Kootenay Ice	0.516	21.16 (2)
Kelowna Rockets	0.500	18.74 (10)
Chilliwack Bruins	0.470	20.3 (5)
Kamloops Blazers	0.469	22.56 (1)
Seattle Thunderbirds	0.406	15.09 (21)
Edmonton Oil Kings	0.375	15.31 (20)
Lethbridge Hurricanes	0.367	19.5 (8)
Prince George Cougars	0.207	20.83 (4)

You can see that the top three teams in the league by winning percentage are actually from three different PIM extremes - heavily penalized, average, and lightly penalized. And the worst teams in the league are also a mix of heavily and lightly penalized teams. So it doesn't seem to make much difference.

How about by actual powerplays given up, not just PIMs taken? After all, some of those PIMs are going to be coincidental ones which don't hurt a team on the ice:

Team	Win %	PP/G
Saskatoon Blades	0.75	4.93 (10)
Calgary Hitmen	0.734	5.03 (9)
Tri-City Americans	0.724	4.69 (15)
Spokane Chiefs	0.679	4.86 (11)
Brandon Wheat Kings	0.636	4.06 (22)
Vancouver Giants	0.621	5.52 (4)
Portland Winterhawks	0.609	5.28 (7)
Medicine Hat Tigers	0.606	4.52 (19)
Everett Silvertips	0.589	5.32 (6)
Moose Jaw Warriors	0.567	4.23 (21)
Prince Albert Raiders	0.544	4.56 (18)
Swift Current Broncos	0.531	4.75 (14)
Regina Pats	0.53	5.61 (3)
Red Deer Rebels	0.517	4.48 (20)
Kootenay Ice	0.516	4.58 (17)
Kelowna Rockets	0.5	4.84 (12)
Chilliwack Bruins	0.47	5.64 (2)
Kamloops Blazers	0.469	6.03 (1)
Seattle Thunderbirds	0.406	4.84 (12)
Edmonton Oil Kings	0.375	4.63 (16)
Lethbridge Hurricanes	0.367	5.43 (5)
Prince George Cougars	0.207	5.17 (8)

Again, not necessarily any relation....we do see a trend where the teams which allow the most PPs per game are drifting towards the bottom of the standings here (as we might expect), but there are still a number of average-to-heavily shorthanded teams near the top. We may be able to conclude that the strength of a team's penalty killing players is a factor here - better PKers means you can give up more PPs without getting seriously hurt - but I don't know of any way to measure the strength of a team's penalty killers, so we'll leave it at that.

How about intimidation? Does it actually work in giving teams an edge?

This is hard to exactly measure but I'll take the number of PIMs that each team has earned through fighting majors and roughing minors (the two most logical results of intimidation attempts) and break that down:

Team	Win %	Rough PIM	Fight PIM	"Intimidation" PIM/G
Kootenay Ice	0.516 (15)	66	280	11.16
Saskatoon Blades	0.75 (1)	86	235	10.7
Prince George Cougars	0.207 (22)	106	190	10.21
Kamloops Blazers	0.469 (18)	152	170	10.06
Red Deer Rebels	0.517 (14)	78	210	9.93
Medicine Hat Tigers	0.606 (8)	128	190	9.64
Chilliwack Bruins	0.47 (17)	112	185	9
Vancouver Giants	0.621 (6)	106	185	8.82
Lethbridge Hurricanes	0.367 (21)	82	170	8.4
Kelowna Rockets	0.5 (16)	84	170	8.19
Calgary Hitmen	0.734 (2)	66	195	8.16
Brandon Wheat Kings	0.636 (5)	72	190	7.94
Prince Albert Raiders	0.544 (11)	90	170	7.65
Portland Winterhawks	0.609 (7)	124	115	7.47
Everett Silvertips	0.589 (9)	60	135	6.96
Regina Pats	0.53 (13)	94	135	6.94
Moose Jaw Warriors	0.567 (10)	68	140	6.93
Swift Current Broncos	0.531 (12)	70	135	6.41
Edmonton Oil Kings	0.375 (20)	62	120	5.69
Seattle Thunderbirds	0.406 (19)	84	95	5.59
Spokane Chiefs	0.679 (4)	70	85	5.54
Tri-City Americans	0.724 (3)	44	100	4.97

Well, of the five teams with the most "intimidation" penalty minutes, four of them rank no better than 14th overall in the league. But the fifth team in that group is also the #1 overall team in the league. Go figure.

Meanwhile, the four teams least-penalized for "intimidation" include two of the league's worst teams and also two of its best. So does intimidation work? I think it's inconclusive.....it may work for some teams and not for others.

Some individual player stats now....

Fighting major leaders:

Player	# Fights
Randy McNaught	13
Darian Dziurzynski	12
Curt Gogol	10
Ian Schultz	10
Tayler Jordan	9
Ryley Miller	9
Josh Cowen	8
Mitchell Callahan	7
Kale Kessy	7
Matthew Konan	7
Brett Lyon	7
Cason Machacek	7
Dylan McIlrath	7
Brock Montgomery	7
David Robinson	7
Tanner Sohn	7
Teigan Zahn	7

And now the powerplay machines.....players who take the most penalties which result in powerplays for their opponent:

Player	PPs
Brett Leffler	23
Brett Breitkreuz	22
Mitchell Chapman	22
Zak Stebner	22
Kyle Beach	21
Rasmus Rissanen	21
Art Bidlevskii	20
Lance Bouma	20
Radko Gudas	20
Brandon Manning	20
Geordie Wudrick	20
Ryan Funk	19
Brennan Yadlowski	19
Colin Jacobs	18
Mitch McColm	18
Brad Ross	18
Jordan Rowley	18
Troy Rutkowski	18
Kevin Sundher	18
Travis Toomey	18
Matt Delahey	17
Brendan Gallagher	17
Wacey Hamilton	17
Nino Niederreiter	17
Brent Raedeke	17
Alexander Urbom	17
Adrian Van de Mosselaer	17
Derek Claffey	16
Ryan Harrison	16
Sam Klassen	16
Shayne Neigum	16
Giffen Nyren	16
Brett Plouffe	16
Mike Reddington	16
Colten Teubert	16

Are these players hurting their teams? Not necessarily, since some penalties are "good" penalties - penalties which prevent scoring chances, etc. But definitely some of these guys are hurting their teams with all these opposition PP's they are causing.

And how about how many of those PPs actually result in goals?

Player	PPs	Goals
Art Bidlevskii	20	9
Brett Lyon	15	7
Stefan Warg	15	7
Nino Niederreiter	17	7
Brett Breitkreuz	22	7
Zak Stebner	22	7
Cam Braes	12	6
Marek Viedensky	12	6
Colin Jacobs	18	6
Rasmus Rissanen	21	6
Mitchell Chapman	22	6
Alex Petrovic	6	5
Dylan McIlrath	14	5
Brayden McNabb	14	5
Brayden Schenn	14	5
Shayne Wiebe	14	5
Derek Claffey	16	5
Ryan Harrison	16	5
Sam Klassen	16	5
Brent Raedeke	17	5
Brad Ross	18	5
Jordan Rowley	18	5
Troy Rutkowski	18	5
Brennan Yadlowski	19	5
Radko Gudas	20	5
Brandon Manning	20	5
Geordie Wudrick	20	5

And again by percentage of PP's which result in goals:

Player	PPs	Goals	%
Alex Petrovic	6	5	83.3%
Matej Bene	6	4	66.7%
Kyle Mulder	6	4	66.7%
Jesse Craige	5	3	60%
Matt Fraser	5	3	60%
Byron Froese	5	3	60%
Emerson Hrynyk	5	3	60%
Michael Ferland	7	4	57.1%
Cam Braes	12	6	50%
Marek Viedensky	12	6	50%
Carter Bancks	8	4	50%
Mackenzie Royer	8	4	50%
Matt Strueby	8	4	50%
Greg Fraser	6	3	50%
Todd Kennedy	6	3	50%
Matt MacKay	6	3	50%
Brett Lyon	15	7	46.7%
Stefan Warg	15	7	46.7%
Art Bidlevskii	20	9	45%
Spencer Bennett	9	4	44.4%
Joey Leach	9	4	44.4%
Brock Sutherland	9	4	44.4%
Brendon Wall	9	4	44.4%
Adam Lowry	7	3	42.9%
Daniel Medland-Marchen	7	3	42.9%
Brodie Melnychuk	7	3	42.9%
Eric Mestery	7	3	42.9%
Harrison Ruopp	7	3	42.9%
Garrett Thiessen	7	3	42.9%
Nino Niederreiter	17	7	41.2%

Alex Petrovic has taken six penalties which resulted in opposing powerplays. They scored while he was in the box five times. One positive way you could look at that though is to conclude that he could be a key penalty killer for them and their PK unit misses him when he's in the box.

That's it for today.....enjoy.