Some interesting light reading on the results of the recent WHL bantam draft today....credit to Lance from GiantsBeat for compiling the stats.
Birth month of the players selected:
January: 42 (18.03%)
February: 30 (12.88%)
March: 30 (12.88%)
April: 26 (11.16%)
May: 27 (11.59%)
June: 16 (6.87%)
July: 17 (7.3%)
August: 8 (3.43%)
September: 8 (3.43%)
October: 11 (4.72%)
November: 12 (5.15%)
December: 6 (2.58%)
By quarter:
Jan - Mar: 102 (43.78%)
Apr - Jun: 69 (29.61%)
Jul - Sep: 33 (14.16%)
Oct - Dec: 29 (12.45%)
If you assume that an equal number of babies are born each month of the year (which seems a reasonable assumption?), these numbers prove once again that the Canadian hockey development model is greatly skewed in favour of children born in the first six months of a calendar year. 73.4% of players selected were born in the months January to June 1994.
This is not an anomaly; this same trend happens every year. The system uses birth year to break kids into age groups to play in, which is fine except that a kid born in January 1994 is almost a full year older than a kid born in December 1994. At age 14 or 15, that's not a big deal but at age 4 or 5 when they're starting out in hockey, that's huge. So the skill development of the early-born kids progresses faster than the late-born kids in their "age group" and so by the time they get older it's the early-born kids who are playing on the top-tier rep teams in each age group while the late-born kids are stuck in house league for life.
Yeah, I'm a late-born....I'm bitter because my NHL career was scuttled at conception.
All laughing aside, it's a legitimate concern but also one without an easy answer. Some people have suggested splitting each of the early age classes into two groups, one for kids born in January to June of a year and one for kids born in July to December. So instead of (for example), the "Tyke" class just being 5 & 6 year olds, you'd have a "Tyke Jan-Jun" of 5 & 6 year olds and a "Tyke Jul-Dec" of 5 & 6 year olds. You wouldn't need more teams or coaches or ice times since the number of players enrolled remains the same - although in areas where there are only enough kids enrolled to have one team in an age group anyway, then they would probably have to continue using the current system. Once the kids get older, like around the peewee or bantam groups, you could do away with the split since by then the physical development advantages enjoyed by early-born kids have faded.
I don't think it would work....but I don't know what the answer is either. For now, I guess if you're a parent who is dead-set on raising an NHLer, you need to work on your timing so your superstar is born in January.....
Couple other things Lance also compiled...
Drafted kids by home province/state:
Alberta: 72 (30.9%)
British Columbia: 57 (24.46%)
Saskatchewan: 46 (19.74%)
Manitoba: 33 (14.16%)
California: 8 (3.43%)
Colorado: 7 (3%)
Texas: 3 (1.29%)
Arizona: 2 (0.86%)
Minnesota: 2 (0.86%)
Alaska: 1 (0.43%)
North Dakota: 1 (0.43%)
Washington: 1 (0.43%)
And by position:
Forward: 132 (56.65%)
Defence: 81 (34.76%)
Goalie: 20 (8.58%)
5 comments:
you can make similar arguments about players born in November & December "losing" a prime year of WHL eligibility... I personally wish the NHL draft & WHL used the same birth date criteria. Not really worried about World Juniors and that stuff but the WHL could allow an exemption or two for late year births for each team for players who aren't NHL quality... food for off season thought
USA Hockey had birth year cut offs at June 30th for youth hockey. They only recently (within the last 7 years) changed to match the Canadian cutt off of December 31st.
I believe Malcolm Gladwell's book 'Outliers' explores this very phenomenon about the advantage of being born in early months of the year when it comes to success in elite-level sports.
I think he even uses the '08 Spokane Chiefs as an example...or was it the '07 Vancouver Giants.
Considering the talent pool continues to deteriorate, your suggestion of re-organizing the groups makes perfect sense. This would give the children with the late birthdates more opportunity to develop thus creating more potential players to draw upon.
Don't forget Sidney Crosby was born August 7th and Alexandre Ovechkin September 17th.
Post a Comment