Playoff picture

A look at the playoff picture for each team in the league as we enter the final 100 games of the regular season:

(Last updated: after games of Feb 29)

Eastern Conference:

Brandon:
Currently holding down 8th place, 8 points ahead of the 9th place Rebels. The #3 to #8 spots in the conference are so ridiculously tight-packed that the Wheat Kings really could finish anywhere in that range if they go on a little hot streak.

Remaining schedule (8 games):
Home (5): Lethbridge, Saskatoon, Saskatoon, Moose Jaw, Regina
Away (3): Regina, Regina, Regina

Calgary:
Currently in 4th spot, four points behind Medicine Hat and three points ahead of Kootenay. Have not clinched a playoff spot yet but should in the next few days. Could finish anywhere from 3rd to 8th depending on how they finish the season. 4 of last 8 games are against current non-playoff teams, which could help them. Also play Kootenay three times so there could be a battle for home ice in the playoffs brewing in those three games.

Remaining schedule (8 games):
Home (4): Saskatoon, Red Deer, Lethbridge, Kootenay
Away (4): Kootenay, Red Deer, Lethbridge, Kootenay

Edmonton: 
The Oil Kings have an 8 point lead on Medicine Hat for first place in the Central division, so it seems fairly safe to say they will win the division and one of the top two conference seeds that comes with it. Their competition for #1 in the conference is Moose Jaw, who are 6 points back. That one could be a race to watch.

Remaining schedule (8 games):
Home (4): Swift Current, Saskatoon, Moose Jaw, Red Deer
Away (4): Red Deer, Kootenay, Medicine Hat, Red Deer

Kootenay:
Currently in 5th place, three points behind Calgary and two points ahead of Saskatoon. As with many of the teams around them, could finish anywhere in the #3 to #8 range depending on how they finish the season. Have a tougher schedule than most of their opponents though, that could work against them.

Remaining schedule (8 games):
Home (4): Calgary, Medicine Hat, Edmonton, Calgary
Away (4): Swift Current, Medicine Hat, Spokane, Calgary

Lethbridge:
The Hurricanes are already mathematically eliminated from the playoffs for the third straight season.

Remaining schedule (8 games):
Home (3): Moose Jaw, Calgary, Medicine Hat
Away (5): Brandon, Moose Jaw, Calgary, Red Deer, Medicine Hat

Medicine Hat:
Currently in third place, 8 points behind Edmonton for first (2nd place is reserved for Eastern division champ of course) and 4 points up on Calgary in 4th. Play three of remaining games against non-playoff competition, which could help them stay in a first round home ice situation.

Remaining schedule (7 games):
Home (4): Kootenay, Red Deer, Edmonton, Lethbridge
Away (3): Vancouver, Kootenay, Lethbridge

Moose Jaw:
Trail Edmonton by 6 points for the conference lead. Lead Saskatoon by 11 points in the race for first place in the Eastern division. Seems reasonably certain that they'll win the division. So the race is Edmonton vs Moose Jaw for 1st/2nd seed.

Remaining schedule (9 games):
Home (3): Lethbridge, Regina, Prince Albert
Away (6): Prince Albert, Lethbridge, Edmonton, Regina, Brandon, Prince Albert

Prince Albert:
The Raiders have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs for the fourth time in the last five years. With a few more losses down the stretch, they could take a run at last overall (currently held by Prince George, five points back of the Raiders) and the best possibility of winning the Mathew Barzal sweepstakes (aka the #1 overall bantam draft pick)

Remaining schedule (9 games):
Home (4): Moose Jaw, Saskatoon, Swift Current, Moose Jaw
Away (5): Regina, Swift Current, Saskatoon, Regina, Moose Jaw

Red Deer:
The 9th place Rebels are the only current non-playoff team in the Eastern Conference who still have a chance to play in the postseason. But it's only a slim chance - they trail 8th place Brandon by 8 points. They do have one game in hand on the Wheat Kings and they would do well to win it. If they can't do that - and even if they can - we're getting into longshot-to-make-the-playoffs territory.

Remaining schedule (9 games):
Home (6): Swift Current, Saskatoon, Calgary, Edmonton, Lethbridge, Edmonton
Away (3): Edmonton, Calgary, Medicine Hat

Regina:
Currently in 7th place, one point behind Saskatoon and one up on Brandon. As with almost everyone else in the playoff picture, anywhere from 3rd to 8th is still realistic for the Pats. A major factor in their favor is that they play 6 of their remaining 8 games at home. That could help them move up a spot or three or four.

Remaining schedule (8 games):
Home (6): Brandon, Prince Albert, Brandon, Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, Brandon
Away (2): Moose Jaw, Brandon

Saskatoon:
Currently in 6th place, two points back of Kootenay and one point ahead of Regina. Also 11 points back of Moose Jaw for the division title and #2 seed, so I don't see that one happening. Blades have a tough schedule remaining, being kicked out of their building for 10 days for the Brier means they play most of their remaining games on the road. They could move up but I think they would also do well just to hold onto the 6th place position they have.

Remaining schedule (9 games):
Home (2): Prince Albert, Swift Current
Away (7): Calgary, Red Deer, Edmonton, Prince Albert, Brandon, Brandon, Swift Current

Swift Current:
The Broncos have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. They will miss for the second year in a row.

Remaining schedule (7 games):
Home (3): Kootenay, Prince Albert, Saskatoon
Away (4): Red Deer, Edmonton, Prince Albert, Saskatoon


Current Eastern Conference playoff matchups if the season ended today:

#8 Brandon Wheat Kings at #1 Edmonton Oil Kings

#7 Regina Pats at #2 Moose Jaw Warriors

#6 Saskatoon Blades at #3 Medicine Hat Tigers

#5 Kootenay Ice at #4 Calgary Hitmen

Western Conference:

Everett:

Currently in 9th place, one point back of Seattle for the last playoff spot and 3 points back of Victoria for 7th place. Three points ahead of Prince George for last overall. Everett plays Seattle three times and Victoria twice yet, so you can definitely say they have a large portion of control over their fate. Win all those games and they probably make the playoff dance.

Remaining schedule (9 games):
Home (5): Seattle, Tri-City, Victoria, Portland, Victoria
Away (4): Seattle, Kelowna, Tri-City, Seattle

Kamloops:

Currently 2nd in the conference and miles ahead of Vancouver for the B.C. division title, so at least the #2 seed is in the bag here (although not mathematically clinched.....yet). Locked in a battle with Tri-City and Portland for the #1 seed and perhaps #1 overall too, depending on what Edmonton does in the Eastern conference.

Remaining schedule (8 games):
Home (4): Kelowna, Portland, Vancouver, Prince George
Away (4):  Kelowna, Vancouver, Spokane, Prince George

Kelowna:

Currently 6th in the conference and that's where they're going to stay. They are 14 points back of fifth place and 15 points ahead of 7th place, so it's unlikely they'll be moving anywhere in the standings. So they are probably just waiting to face whichever of Tri-City/Portland loses the battle for the U.S. division crown.

Remaining schedule (8 games):
Home (5): Kamloops, Victoria, Prince George, Everett, Vancouver
Away (3): Kamloops, Spokane, Vancouver

Portland:

Currently in the #3 spot and 1 point back of Tri-City for the #1 seed. Have two games left against Tri-City which could go a long ways towards determining who wins that race. Loser will get the #3 seed, nobody is going to fall further than that. It's almost mathematical already.

Remaining schedule (9 games):
Home (3): Seattle, Tri-City, Seattle
Away (6): Tri-City, Kamloops, Everett, Seattle, Victoria, Victoria

Prince George:

Currently dead last overall in the league and yet still only four points out of a playoff spot. How does that work anyway? Play a slightly home-tilted schedule down the stretch here so a nice little winning streak could get them into the postseason.

Remaining schedule (9 games):
Home (5): Spokane, Spokane, Seattle, Seattle, Kamloops
Away (4): Kelowna, Tri-City, Tri-City, Kamloops

Seattle:

Currently 8th in the conference, holding the last playoff spot by one point over Everett and four points over Prince George. Have a somewhat unfavorable schedule the rest of the way compared to the teams chasing them, so they're going to need to take advantage of the chances they have - such as the three games against Everett and two against the Cougars. Win those and they could have some breathing room.

Remaining schedule (10 games):
Home (4): Portland, Everett, Spokane, Everett
Away (6): Everett, Portland, Prince George, Prince George, Spokane, Portland

Spokane:

Currently sit in 5th place and appear destined for a first round matchup with the Vancouver Giants. The Chiefs are 14 points clear of 6th place Kelowna so they're not going to be caught from behind, but only 1 point back of  the Giants so there is some potential to swap places with the Giants and take home ice advantage in the first round series.

Remaining schedule (9 games):
Home (5): Kelowna, Tri-City, Kootenay, Kamloops, Seattle
Away (4): Prince George, Prince George, Seattle, Tri-City

Tri-City:

Currently first in the conference and first overall. Locked in a tight three-way battle with Kamloops and Portland for the top three seeds in the conference (of course Kamloops can not finish below 2nd).

Remaining schedule (9 games):
Home (5): Portland, Prince George, Prince George, Everett, Spokane
Away (4): Everett, Portland, Vancouver, Spokane

Vancouver:

Giants are in 4th place and, as mentioned under Spokane, appear destined for a first round dance with the Chiefs. The Giants are 15 points back of 3rd place so there isn't going to be anyone catching anyone there. They're also far enough ahead of 6th place that they won't be caught there either. So the only task the Giants have down the stretch is to stay ahead of Spokane and retain home ice advantage for their first round series.

Remaining schedule (9 games):
Home (5): Medicine Hat, Tri-City, Kamloops, Victoria, Kelowna
Away (4): Victoria, Victoria, Kamloops, Kelowna

Victoria:

Currently in 7th place, 15 points back of 6th and 2 points up on 8th. The large spread to 6th place suggests they won't get any higher than they are. The challenge for the Royals is to hold onto that playoff spot, with themselves, Seattle, Everett, and Prince George all separated by just 6 points and only two will get into the postseason.

Remaining schedule (8 games):
Home (4): Vancouver, Vancouver, Portland, Portland
Away (4): Everett, Kelowna, Everett, Vancouver

Current Western Conference playoff matchups if the season ended today:

#8 Seattle Thunderbirds at #1 Tri-City Americans

#7 Victoria Royals at #2 Kamloops Blazers

#6 Kelowna Rockets at #3 Portland Winterhawks

#5 Spokane Chiefs at #4 Vancouver Giants

Another James victim comes forward

A surprising development today in a Winnipeg courtroom as another one of Graham James' victims lifted the publication ban on his name. The player is former Swift Current Broncos star Todd Holt, who played for James in the early 90's with the Broncos.

Holt joins Sheldon Kennedy, Theoren Fleury, and Greg Gilhooly as players victimized as teenagers by James, who have found the courage to give names and faces to the horrific crime that is sexual abuse.

Everett hires new G.M.

Funny, looks like I haven't posted since Everett fired Soetart two weeks ago....sorry, it's been busy on some personal fronts here.

Anyway, Everett has hired Soetart's replacement today and the man of the hour is Garry Davidson - formerly (until today) the director of player personnel for the Portland Winterhawks.

Davidson has been credited with a number of the Hawks' recruiting successes lately - their track record in convincing "on-the-fence" type players to choose the WHL over the NCAA has been one of the best in the WHL over the last few years. One wonders what negative effects (if any) his departure (to a division rival to boot) will have on the Winterhawks, as well as whether this means we can anticipate Everett landing some more of those higher-risk picks now too.

Soetart out in Everett

The Everett Silvertips pulled a bit of a surprising move yesterday by firing G.M. Doug Soetart. The dismissal of Soetart itself is not all that surprising to me, but the timing of the move is.

I don't think anyone who looks at the team's recent performance could be surprised that this was Soetart's final year in Everett. The team is currently dead last overall in the WHL and has won one playoff series in the last five years - and zero in the last four years. There's also some high-profile misfires on his record, like the use of a high 2009 first round bantam pick on Seth Jones, who appears not to be headed for the WHL. I mean, how good would Reid Gow or (especially) Eric Roy, the next two defencemen picked in that draft after Jones, look on Everett's roster right now?

Soetart was in the last year of his contract and that alone, in the absence of talks about an extension, usually gives an indication that somebody may be on thin ice. So this really can't be too much of a surprise.

The timing though: why now? The trade deadline having passed, there is very little that a new G.M. coming in right now can do for the remainder of the year. From here though the end of the season, the hockey-related duties of a G.M. probably amount to monitoring/recruiting prospects and preparing for the bantam draft. So why now? Has the working relationship between Soetart and his bosses become so uncomfortable that the best solution is for him to not be there any longer? Were his bosses that unhappy that 3 weeks ago he declined to trade stars like Ryan Murray and Kent Simpson and now risks losing them for nothing next year?

Questions, questions.

NCAA vs CHL, again

Read an interesting blog this morning from the Minneapolis StarTribune site - a tip of the hat to Gregg Drinnan's blog for pointing me to it. If you're interested in the CHL vs NCAA recruiting battle, I highly encourage you to read North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol's comments for yourself.

Basically Hakstol is unhappy about having lost two prized UND recruits to the CHL in the last six months - forward J.T. Miller to the OHL last summer and then Stefan Matteau to the QMJHL two weeks ago. So unhappy, that Hakstol actually suggested that the NCAA may need to change its rules to allow ex-CHL players to play NCAA hockey.

This position probably amounts to treason among the "CHL is pro hockey" faction of the NCAA fanbase, who like to cling to the cute notion that their exchanging tens of thousands of dollars in free education in exchange for a young hockey player's services is somehow morally superior and less "professional" than the CHL clubs who offer monthly stipends of a few hundred dollars (plus an equivalent, optional, scholarship package) for the same services.

But, it is refreshing to see at least one person in a prominent position inside NCAA hockey and its member clubs sees the possible bigger picture here which offers benefits to everyone - ESPECIALLY the players themselves, who are what everyone should be mainly concerned about.

I've been over this many times before, but if the NCAA could only see its way clear to dropping this ridiculous "professional" designation it attaches to players who play even one game in the CHL (or even those who just sign an education contract but never play in the league!), everyone would win.

The CHL leagues would win because ALL of the best players would then head to the CHL. Many of them would stay, strengthening the CHL's product.

The NCAA would win because there will be players who sample the CHL's offerings for a year or two or three and decide it's not for them. Or maybe they decide that the NHL dream isn't going to work out for them and a four year degree from an NCAA school sounds pretty good instead. (Of course, the CHL scholarship program offers them four or five years of paid schooling after their CHL days are over too, but maybe they don't want to wait 'til they're 20 or 21 to get started on that. Who knows?). So the NCAA would get these players - some/many of whom they would have gotten ANYWAY - only they will be better players for having spent a year or two playing at the higher level of the CHL instead of in Junior A.

Yes, the NCAA will almost certainly lose most of the biggest and brightest stars that it currently attracts. Those players will play in the CHL, become high NHL draft picks, sign NHL contracts and never play in the NCAA. So I can see why this path has some obvious unappealing features for NCAA schools and their fans. The tradeoff for landing few of those "five star" players though is access to a much larger group of four star and three star players that they currently do not have.

I firmly believe that if they would just permit kids to play major junior up to the point where they graduate from high school (since they're not even able to attend university until then anyway) and THEN have the player make his choice which way to go, that everyone benefits. No more pressuring from all sides of 15, 16 year old kids to make these life-altering decisions.