Looking at the playoff races

Down to the last dozen or so games for most teams in the league, so here's a look at how the playoff races are shaping up in the league this year.... (Last updated after games of February 26)

Eastern Conference:

East Division:

This race is pretty much over. Brandon has a 22 point lead over Regina for first in the division and with the Pats able to pick up 24 more points at most, we're only a Brandon win (or Regina loss) away from being able to say Brandon has clinched the top seed in the East and the right to play a wild-card team. Almost certainly the worst wild-card team too. More on that later.

For the 2nd and 3rd spots allotted to the East, Regina is two wins away from locking one of them up and with an 9 point lead on the 3rd-place Broncos, the Pats are looking good to have home ice in the first round, a series which is almost certain to be against the Broncos.

Moose Jaw is 12 points behind the Broncos, while Prince Albert is 14 points back, and with only 12 games left each, it seems very unlikely that either is going to catch the Broncos for 3rd place. That puts the Warriors and Raiders into the wild-card competition only.

Central Division: 

We have a good race here with five of the six teams in the division still having a chance to finish in first place, at least mathematically. After leading the division almost all season long, Medicine Hat surrendered first place to the Calgary Hitmen earlier this week. The Hitmen, winners of 15 of their last 16 games, are now 4 points up on the Tigers with both teams having 11 games left. There are no head-to-head games left and both teams have fairly road-heavy schedules remaining so this battle may go down to the end of the season, but only if the Tigers turn around their fortunes. If they continue their recent slumping ways, then the Hitmen will run away with the division title.

Right behind the Hitmen and Tigers are the Rebels, who are 6 points back of the Tigers and 10 back of the Hitmen and have one game in hand on both of them as well. They also play the Hitmen twice more and the Tigers once, so there's a number of "four point" games to help them catch up. Catching the Tigers for 2nd place - and home ice for the resulting first-round playoff matchup - is quite do-able for the Rebels.

After the Rebels, we have the Ice - 4 pts back of the Rebels and 10 pts back of the Tigers. The Ice have fewer games remaining than everyone else too (10 games left for them) so they have less opportunities to catch up. I think the 10 points on the Tigers (and 14 on the Hitmen) are probably too much to overcome so the best-case scenario for the Ice is probably catching Red Deer (or Medicine Hat!) for 3rd.

Same with Edmonton, who are 5 points back of the Ice. While the Oil Kings can theoretically catch Medicine Hat (15 points), it's not very realistic. Their best bet is catching Red Deer (or Medicine Hat!) for 3rd place but even that is 9 points to make up in 10 games. There ARE two more head-to-head games there though. It can be done. I just don't think it will....so the Oil Kings are likely a wild-card team only.

Overall I think we will see Calgary finish first, then Medicine Hat and Red Deer go 2nd-3rd in some order. Nobody is going to catch Brandon for first in the conference so that means whichever one finishes 1st in the Central (Calgary?) will get the better of the two wild-card teams (Kootenay?) in the first round.

Wild card spots:

Lethbridge is the only eliminated team in the East, so in theory the wild card race is still a five horse race, with Saskatoon, Prince Albert, Moose Jaw, Edmonton, and Kootenay (plus Swift Current and Red Deer if they got caught by one of the first four teams) battling for two spots. But, Saskatoon will be mathematically eliminated if they lose one more game or if the Oil Kings win one more game, so really you can exclude the Blades from the wild-card conversation.

Kootenay I think is pretty safe here as they are 14 points ahead of Moose Jaw and 16 ahead of Prince Albert so realistically they are not going to get caught. It's Edmonton-Moose Jaw-Prince Albert for the last spot (and the privilege of facing Brandon in the first round of the playoffs) and the Oil Kings have a 7 point lead on the Warriors and 9 points on the Raiders.


Western Conference:

B.C. Division:

This division is fairly easy compared to some others. First place is mathematically sewn up by Kelowna. Second place has been mathematically clinched by Victoria. Those two teams will start the playoffs at home.

Third place though, it's a dogfight. Vancouver holds it right now with 55 points but Prince George is right behind them with 52 and Kamloops has 50, so a lot of things can happen here yet. The Giants have one game in hand on both their pursuers as well. Winner of the 3rd place race gets Victoria in the first round of the playoffs. The two losers have a chance in the wild-card (more on that later) but could also (more likely?) both miss the playoffs.

U.S. Division:

A lot like the Central division, we have a dogfight at the top two spots, then a short drop-off. Everett holds down first place right now with 79 points, with Portland nipping at their heels with 77. Both teams have 11 games left to play so it's anyone's race here. It is extremely unlikely that either of them will catch Kelowna for #1 in the conference, so the Rockets will get the weaker wild-card team while Everett/Portland gets the better wild-card team.

There's actually a 3rd team in the U.S. division crown race, Seattle with 69 points. With 10 points to make up in 12 games, it doesn't seem very likely though that they will be able to overtake Everett. They'll have a better chance of making up the 8 points to catch Portland, but the Winterhawks have been pretty hot lately so even that might be a tough hill to climb. More likely IMO that Seattle ends up 3rd and goes on the road in the first round against whichever of Everett/Portland ends up in 2nd.

From Seattle's 69 points it drops off to Spokane at 60 and Tri-City at 57, so with 9 and 12 points to make up I think the Chiefs and Americans are more likely in the wild-card race than in the U.S. division race anymore.

Wild-card spots:

As mentioned, Spokane (60) and Tri-City (57) are likely in this race, and they are the front-runners over Prince George (52) and Kamloops (50). I like Spokane's chances a lot, that 8 point lead is asking a lot of Prince George or Kamloops to overcome. Tri-City has a lot of key injuries right now so we'll see how they do at holding off the Cougars and Blazers for the 2nd spot there.

Interesting note to this is that Spokane and Tri-City play each other four more times this season, and so do the Cougars and Blazers play four times as well. So there's lots of head-to-head competition in the wild-card races here.

Current scenario would see Spokane play the U.S. division winner (Everett/Portland) while Tri-City would get the dreaded Kelowna Rockets in the first round.



Lastly, the remaining schedule for every team in the league:

Brandon:
Away: Prince Albert, Saskatoon, Regina, Moose Jaw
Home: Kootenay, Kootenay, Lethbridge, Swift Current, Moose Jaw, Saskatoon, Moose Jaw

Calgary:
Away: Everett, Kelowna, Kamloops, Prince George, Edmonton, Red Deer, Lethbridge, Kootenay
Home: Lethbridge, Red Deer, Kootenay

Edmonton:
Away: Prince Albert, Saskatoon, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Red Deer
Home: Prince Albert, Regina, Calgary, Saskatoon, Red Deer

Everett:
Away: Tri-City, Vancouver, Seattle, Victoria, Spokane
Home: Calgary, Prince George, Kelowna, Portland, Seattle, Victoria

Kamloops:
Away: Seattle, Kelowna, Prince George, Prince George
Home: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Spokane, Prince George, Kelowna, Prince George

Kelowna:
Away: Vancouver, Everett, Vancouver, Kamloops, Vancouver
Home: Calgary, Spokane, Victoria, Kamloops, Seattle, Vancouver

Kootenay:
Away: Brandon, Brandon, Medicine Hat, Red Deer, Lethbridge, Calgary
Home: Red Deer, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Calgary

Lethbridge:
Away: Red Deer, Brandon, Saskatoon, Prince Albert, Kootenay, Calgary, Swift Current
Home: Edmonton, Calgary, Kootenay, Swift Current

Medicine Hat:
Away: Regina, Swift Current, Moose Jaw, Kootenay, Prince Albert, Saskatoon
Home: Red Deer, Kootenay, Edmonton, Prince Albert, Saskatoon

Moose Jaw:
Away: Regina, Brandon, Regina, Brandon
Home: Saskatoon, Regina, Medicine Hat, Swift Current, Saskatoon, Regina, Swift Current, Brandon

Portland:
Away: Seattle, Everett, Spokane, Spokane, Tri-City, Seattle
Home: Seattle, Tri-City, Prince George, Spokane, Tri-City

Prince Albert: 

Away: Red Deer, Edmonton, Swift Current, Medicine Hat, Regina

Home: Edmonton, Brandon, Lethbridge, Swift Current, Medicine Hat, Regina

Prince George: 

Away: Seattle, Everett, Kamloops, Tri-City, Portland, Kamloops
Home: Calgary, Victoria, Victoria, Kamloops, Kamloops

Red Deer: 

Away: Medicine Hat, Swift Current, Kootenay, Calgary, Edmonton

Home: Prince Albert, Lethbridge, Regina, Saskatoon, Calgary, Kootenay, Edmonton

Regina: 

Away: Moose Jaw, Edmonton, Red Deer, Swift Current, Moose Jaw, Prince Albert

Home: Medicine Hat, Moose Jaw, Moose Jaw, Brandon, Prince Albert

Saskatoon: 

Away: Moose Jaw, Moose Jaw, Edmonton, Red Deer, Brandon, Medicine Hat

Home: Swift Current, Edmonton, Lethbridge, Brandon, Medicine Hat

Seattle: 

Away: Victoria, Victoria, Portland, Everett, Kelowna, Spokane

Home: Prince George, Portland, Kamloops, Everett, Tri-City, Portland

Spokane: 

Away: Tri-City, Kamloops, Kelowna, Vancouver, Portland, Tri-City

Home: Tri-City, Vancouver, Portland, Tri-City, Portland, Seattle, Everett

Swift Current: 

Away: Saskatoon, Moose Jaw, Brandon, Prince Albert, Moose Jaw, Lethbridge

Home: Medicine Hat, Red Deer, Regina, Prince Albert, Lethbridge

Tri-City: 

Away: Spokane, Portland, Spokane, Seattle, Portland

Home: Spokane, Vancouver, Everett, Prince George, Portland, Spokane

Vancouver: 

Away: Kamloops, Spokane, Tri-City, Victoria, Victoria, Kelowna

Home: Kelowna, Kelowna, Everett, Spokane, Victoria, Kelowna

Victoria: 

Away: Kamloops, Prince George, Prince George, Kelowna, Vancouver, Everett
Home: Seattle, Seattle, Vancouver, Vancouver, Everett