Over the last five years, it has taken an average of 73.2 points to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference (let's call that 73 points) and in the West, an average of 60.4 (we'll call it 60). Obviously this number fluctuates every year - for example, at current paces it will take 78 in the East this year and 69 in the West. But since this year's paces will change as the season progresses, for the sake of our analysis here we'll use the 5-year averages of 73 and 60.
So, the current Eastern conference standings:
| GP | PTS | Win% | |
| Medicine Hat Tigers | 24 | 35 | 0.729 |
| Swift Current Broncos | 28 | 33 | 0.589 |
| Prince Albert Raiders | 24 | 30 | 0.625 |
| Edmonton Oil Kings | 23 | 29 | 0.620 |
| Calgary Hitmen | 22 | 28 | 0.636 |
| Kootenay Ice | 26 | 28 | 0.538 |
| Brandon Wheat Kings | 25 | 27 | 0.540 |
| Regina Pats | 24 | 26 | 0.542 |
| Red Deer Rebels | 24 | 23 | 0.479 |
| Saskatoon Blades | 26 | 21 | 0.404 |
| Moose Jaw Warriors | 27 | 18 | 0.333 |
| Lethbridge Hurricanes | 25 | 10 | 0.200 |
And current Western conference standings:
| GP | PTS | Win% | |
| Everett Silvertips | 25 | 38 | 0.760 |
| Portland Winterhawks | 24 | 36 | 0.750 |
| Kelowna Rockets | 21 | 34 | 0.810 |
| Spokane Chiefs | 24 | 33 | 0.688 |
| Victoria Royals | 26 | 31 | 0.596 |
| Tri-City Americans | 26 | 30 | 0.577 |
| Seattle Thunderbirds | 24 | 28 | 0.583 |
| Vancouver Giants | 26 | 25 | 0.481 |
| Prince George Cougars | 26 | 22 | 0.423 |
| Kamloops Blazers | 24 | 15 | 0.312 |
And now the points (and records) required to make the playoffs in the East, assuming 73 points are needed:
| Points | Record | Win % | |
| Medicine Hat Tigers | 39 | 19-28-1 | 0.406 |
| Swift Current Broncos | 41 | 20-23-1 | 0.466 |
| Prince Albert Raiders | 44 | 22-26-0 | 0.458 |
| Edmonton Oil Kings | 45 | 22-26-1 | 0.459 |
| Calgary Hitmen | 46 | 23-27-0 | 0.460 |
| Kootenay Ice | 46 | 23-23-0 | 0.500 |
| Brandon Wheat Kings | 47 | 23-23-1 | 0.500 |
| Regina Pats | 48 | 24-24-0 | 0.500 |
| Red Deer Rebels | 51 | 25-22-1 | 0.531 |
| Saskatoon Blades | 53 | 26-19-1 | 0.576 |
| Moose Jaw Warriors | 56 | 28-17-0 | 0.622 |
| Lethbridge Hurricanes | 64 | 32-15-0 | 0.681 |
And in the West, assuming 60 points are needed:
| Points | Record | Win % | |
| Everett Silvertips | 23 | 11-35-1 | 0.245 |
| Portland Winterhawks | 25 | 12-35-1 | 0.260 |
| Kelowna Rockets | 27 | 13-37-1 | 0.265 |
| Spokane Chiefs | 28 | 14-34-0 | 0.292 |
| Victoria Royals | 30 | 15-31-0 | 0.326 |
| Tri-City Americans | 31 | 15-30-1 | 0.337 |
| Seattle Thunderbirds | 33 | 16-31-1 | 0.344 |
| Vancouver Giants | 36 | 18-28-0 | 0.391 |
| Prince George Cougars | 39 | 19-26-1 | 0.424 |
| Kamloops Blazers | 46 | 23-25-0 | 0.479 |
The most obvious thing that stands out here is that, given the low number of points required to make the playoffs in the West, doing this for the West so early in the season is kind of useless. Pretty much every team in the conference is still quite plausibly capable of attaining 60 points without needing a drastic turnaround. Kamloops may be a .312 team right now but they only need to get to .479 (not even above .500!) to get 60 points.
The East though, that's another story. It's already fair to say that the playoff hopes of the Hurricanes and Warriors may be over, only 1/3 of the way into the season. The Hurricanes, currently at .200, need to play at a .681 pace the rest of the season to get to 73 points. That kind of turnaround seems unlikely in the extreme. Same goes for the .333 Warriors, who would need to improve to .622 for the rest of the season.
Saskatoon, at .404 currently, needs to get to .576 and that, while a tall order, remains do-able if things turn around for them a bit sometime soon.
So, it's still early in the year but two teams may have already firmly established themselves as trade deadline sellers (Nick Walters? Josh Derko? Travis Brown? Jesse Forsberg?).
