From the "master of the obvious" files.....
Seven of the eight series see action tonight and for five teams (and a sixth, to a lesser extent), tonight is a must-win game.
Five of the WHL's eight first round series are currently sitting at 2-0 in favor of one team, and we all know the oft-recited statistic that only one team in WHL history has ever come back from being down 3-0 to win a series. So, for the five teams that are on the bad end of the 0-2 count (that's Saskatoon, Prince Albert, Kelowna, Tri-City, and Victoria), tonight is pretty much a must-win situation if they want to avoid being eliminated in the first round.
Of course it COULD happen that they come back from 0-3. History just tells us that's a lot more difficult to do than it is to talk about doing.
For a sixth team, Swift Current, they trail their series 2-1 and so a loss tonight would put them down 3-1 and heading on the road for game 5. When you lose three of the first four, the odds would seem against you that you can win the next three in a row. Easier than four in a row for sure, but tonight is still a very important win for the Broncos to get.
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Draft lottery / order
A day late to this, but as most of you no doubt have already heard, the Regina Pats won yesterday's draft lottery and as a result will move up from 4th overall in the bantam draft up to 2nd overall. Prince George (who were previously #2) will drop to #3, and Brandon (previously #3) will drop to #4. All other teams remain the same, which means the full order for the 2013 first round looks like this:
1. Vancouver
2. Regina
3. Prince George
4. Brandon
5. Moose Jaw
6. Lethbridge
7. Everett
8. Seattle
9. Kootenay
10. Medicine Hat
11. Victoria
12. Swift Current
13. Prince Albert
14. Red Deer
15. Tri-City
16. Spokane
17. Brandon (from Saskatoon for Michael Ferland)
18. Calgary
19. Kamloops
20. Vancouver (from Edmonton in Musil/Geertsen trade)
21. Kelowna
22. Seattle (from Portland for Marcel Noebels)
1. Vancouver
2. Regina
3. Prince George
4. Brandon
5. Moose Jaw
6. Lethbridge
7. Everett
8. Seattle
9. Kootenay
10. Medicine Hat
11. Victoria
12. Swift Current
13. Prince Albert
14. Red Deer
15. Tri-City
16. Spokane
17. Brandon (from Saskatoon for Michael Ferland)
18. Calgary
19. Kamloops
20. Vancouver (from Edmonton in Musil/Geertsen trade)
21. Kelowna
22. Seattle (from Portland for Marcel Noebels)
Monday, March 18, 2013
First round predictions
Take a shot at this here....
Edmonton vs Kootenay: Edmonton in four
Edmonton is too good. I know Kootenay has been hot but Edmonton has still been better in the same time span. Plus Edmonton is defending champs, lots of playoff experience there. They won't be blowout losses but I don't see Kootenay winning a game.
Medicine Hat vs Saskatoon: Saskatoon in five
If the Tigers get some goaltending I think they can give the Blades a bit more of a tussle than this. And you never know with Memorial Cup hosts, just how much fire is in the belly if things get tough and they know they have something to fall back on. I just don't think the Tigers have the goaltending, Lanigan or no Lanigan.
Swift Current vs Calgary: Calgary in six
If I wasn't a homer I would seriously be tempted to pick this as my big first round upset. I think Swift matches up very well against Calgary and also have the edge in net - and goaltending is so important in the playoffs. Calgary's edge is having better depth at every position. They'll need to use it and wear the Broncos' top guys down. Could be a tough, physical series.
Prince Albert vs Red Deer: Red Deer in six.
Red Deer is starting to really hum along at just the right time of year. Meanwhile, Prince Albert has been struggling for a few months now. No reason to see that changing, especially not when Red Deer has (statistically anyway) the best starting goaltender in the entire WHL.
Everett vs Portland: Portland in four.
Do we really need to go into this one? Isn't "twice as good" enough of an explanation?
Seattle vs Kelowna: Kelowna in five
I was all set to call this one a sweep too, then I heard that Colton Sissons is out for the Rockets, likely for the rest of the season. Losing your #1 center has to hurt and I'll give the Thunderbirds one close game as a result.....maybe a fluky OT win kind of thing. But it's not going to change the overall outcome of this series at all.
Victoria vs Kamloops: Kamloops in four
Victoria's leading scorer is out for the series and there's some question about the health of their starting goaltender too. And they've been kicked out of their home rink for the entire round as well. Things are going from slim to dim here for the Royals.
Tri-City vs Spokane: Spokane in six.
This could have been my upset pick. In fact it would not surprise me at all to see the Americans take this one - Troy Trombley has looked really good in stealing the #1 goaltending job after coming in as an emergency backup after Eric Comrie went down and if Spokane can't solve him, he could steal games. But Spokane has been playing well lately and have home ice advantage to boot, so I have to go with the Chiefs. But I'm covering my ass by saying an Americans win wouldn't be surprising here either!
Friday, March 15, 2013
Playoff picture
The WHL playoff picture got a tiny bit clearer last night, although not anything unexpected. With the Prince George Cougars' loss to Kelowna last night, the best the Cougars can do now is tie Everett for the final playoff spot in the West.
Doing this will require the Cougars to win both their remaining games (both against Kamloops) and for Everett to lose, in regulation, all three of their remaining games (two against Victoria and one against Tri-City).
If all this DID come to pass, there would then be a one-game sudden-death playoff in Everett on probably Tuesday (I'm thinking not on Monday as that would force Everett to play on four straight days) to determine who gets the playoff spot.
So, don't hold your breath or anything. It's so extremely unlikely to happen, it's pretty safe to say Everett is going to make the playoffs and Prince George is going to miss.
Doing this will require the Cougars to win both their remaining games (both against Kamloops) and for Everett to lose, in regulation, all three of their remaining games (two against Victoria and one against Tri-City).
If all this DID come to pass, there would then be a one-game sudden-death playoff in Everett on probably Tuesday (I'm thinking not on Monday as that would force Everett to play on four straight days) to determine who gets the playoff spot.
So, don't hold your breath or anything. It's so extremely unlikely to happen, it's pretty safe to say Everett is going to make the playoffs and Prince George is going to miss.
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
More playoff races
Another short rundown on the playoff picture as we go through the last five game days of the WHL regular season...
In the East, the top four seeds for the first round are set: Edmonton will be #1, Saskatoon will be #2, Calgary will be #3, and Red Deer will be #4.
Lethbridge, Regina, Moose Jaw, and Brandon will miss the playoffs in the East.
The #5 through #8 spots are still wide open though and will go to Prince Albert, Swift Current, Medicine Hat, and Kootenay in some order. Swift and Medicine Hat can still finish 5th, 6th, 7th, or 8th and could still play any of the top four seeds in the first round year. Prince Albert cannot finish 8th (so they will for sure not face Edmonton in the first round) but can still be 5th, 6th, or 7th. And Kootenay cannot finish 5th (so they cannot play Red Deer in the opening round) but could still be 6th, 7th, or 8th.
Currently Swift Current is 2 points behind the Raiders. The Tigers are 2 points behind the Broncos. And the Ice are 3 points behind the Tigers. So it's all very close, pretty wide-open yet pending the results of the next few games.
The other race in the East is a race for potential second round seeding, as Calgary and Saskatoon are jockeying for the 2nd best record in the conference behind Edmonton. Saskatoon gets the #2 seed for the first round by virtue of being the Eastern Division champion, but teams get re-seeded for the second round so if Calgary finishes with more points than Saskatoon then Calgary would be #2 seed for the second round. Assuming, naturally, that they get there.....it's kind of moot if one or both go out in the first round, isn't it.
Anyway, Calgary has a 3 point lead over the Blades in that race; with both teams having two games left to play, the Hitmen can clinch it by winning either of their remaining games (a home-and-home with the Ice) or having the Blades lose two points from their remaining two games (a pair of road games in Prince Albert).
In the Western conference.....
Portland has clinched #1 seed, Kelowna #2, Kamloops #3, and Victoria #6. So #3 Kamloops will definitely host #6 Victoria in the first round - the sort-of only first round matchup to be set in stone.
I say sort-of because Spokane and Tri-City know they will be the #4 and #5 seeds and therefore will play each other - it's just not decided yet who will be #4 and who will be #5. Spokane has a two point lead and they both have three games left to play - including a home-and-home on Friday & Saturday nights. If that doesn't settle it one way or another then it'll come down to how they do against different opponents on Sunday afternoon.
In the lower portion of the West standings, Vancouver will miss the playoffs. Seattle has clinched a playoff spot but it could be either #7 or #8.
Prince George can still make the playoffs in the #8 spot (I bet Portland is looking forward to THAT bus trip) but it seems unlikely; they are four points behind Everett with both teams having three games left. Realistically Prince George has to win all three of their remaining games (Kelowna, then Kamloops twice) while hoping Everett loses at least three points from games against Victoria (twice) and Tri-City. Any combination of three squandered points by the Cougars or gained points by the Silvertips and it's all over for the Cougars.
Post-trade deadline records
Just a quick little chart for fun here....these are the team winning percentages before and after the trade deadline:
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There's surprisingly (to me anyway) little change for a lot of teams.
The only really big changes were the improvements by Saskatoon and Kootenay, and the dropoffs by Lethbridge and Prince Albert. With Kootenay, they made almost no changes at the deadline (traded Erik Benoit to Saskatoon was about the extent of it) and were already on the upswing at the time so the deadline had little to do with things.
Prince Albert made some medium-scale moves, nothing major, but began to slide. They won 25 games in the 2012 portion of the season but have won only 10 in 2013.
Lethbridge made two moves to get bigger and grittier (Mike Simpson from Kootenay and the Merkley/Derko trade with Swift Current) and promptly dropped from 4th place in the East right out of the playoffs, winning only 5 of 24 games since the deadline. Not to say Merkley was THAT valuable to them but on the other hand, Swift Current did have the 5th-biggest improvement.
For Lethbridge, that's four straight years out of the playoffs now, an eternity in a cyclical league like major junior. The four years also coincides with the employment of Rich Preston as coach and G.M., which begs the question of whether Preston is going to get a 5th year to try to make the playoffs after the calamitous finish to this season.
For Saskatoon, everyone made fun of them for the entire first half of the year and they paid some pretty steep prices for players at the trade deadline, but they accomplished what they wanted to: they remade their team into a contender. No team in the WHL was better than Saskatoon's .817 since the deadline and in fact it's not even really close in that department either. They may be paying for this for years to come but they have a legitimate chance to win a WHL title and an even better chance to win a Memorial Cup. Win that and it'll all be worthwhile, right.
Friday, March 8, 2013
Playoff races
Into the final 10 days of the 2012-13 regular season now and in looking at the standings, I see six playoff "races" still underway - positions to be determined, in other words.
Four teams have been mathematically eliminated from the postseason already - Brandon, Regina, and Moose Jaw in the East, and Vancouver in the West. But beyond that, only two playoff seeds have been clinched and that's #1 in the East, which belongs to Edmonton, and #2 in the East, which will belong to Saskatoon in the first round.
Portland has not yet mathematically clinched #1 in their conference, but they will (by this Saturday night, I'd bet), so I'm not going to call that a "playoff race" anymore. Same with Portland clinching first overall - they haven't yet, but they will by this weekend most likely.
So the six races that are still up in the air....
1) Kamloops vs Kelowna for #2/#3 in the West. Kelowna has a five point lead and one game in hand over the Blazers in this battle, so the race is all but over.
There's a side script to this battle as well and that's that Kelowna is also only one point behind Edmonton for 2nd overall. But I suspect not too many people are really concerned about 2nd overall; the only meaning it will have would be home ice in the WHL Final if Edmonton met the Rockets in that series.
2) Tri-City, Spokane and Victoria for 4th/5th/6th in the West. Victoria is horribly slumping right now and have dropped 9 points back of Spokane for 5th. With only 6 games to play, it seems pretty likely that Victoria is going to end up 6th. So this is really a 2 horse race between the Americans and Chiefs to see who gets home ice for their first round #4 vs #5 matchup. The Ams have a one point lead with both teams having 6 games to play - including two head-to-head games. Could go to the wire.
3) Seattle, Everett, and Prince George for 7th/8th/9th in the West. This race is pretty close to a two horse race since Prince George is 6 points back of Everett for 8th and the Cougars play 6 of their last 7 games on the road, and they are the 2nd worst team in the entire league on the road. It ain't promising for them. So really it's Everett vs Seattle (Seattle has a two point lead with games played even at 67) for the right to be eliminated in four quick games in the first round by Portland and Kelowna/Kamloops. Battling for 7th/8th is really a little bit like a condemned man being offered his choice of the electric chair or a firing squad.
4) Calgary vs Saskatoon for 2nd overall in the East. The Blades are going to get the #2 seed in the first round, but for the second round the seeds get re-done by points, which means that if the Hitmen and Blades end up facing each other in the second round then whoever has more points will get home ice advantage in that series. Calgary currently has a 1 point lead on the Blades and also have one game in hand.
I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Red Deer is technically still in this race as well, but they are 7 points back of Calgary and they only have four games remaining so it seems very unlikely they would catch the Hitmen to have a chance at 2nd overall in the conference.
5) Red Deer vs Saskatoon for possible #3 seeding in the 2nd round. Red Deer isn't likely going to catch Calgary but they can still catch Saskatoon - they're 4 points back and the Blades have a game in hand. Unlikely but not impossible. If it happened, then assuming no upsets in the first round, we would see Calgary #2, Red Deer #3, and Saskatoon #4 for the second round, meaning Saskatoon would draw Edmonton in the second round. But like I said, it's unlikely to happen.
6) Prince Albert, Medicine Hat, Swift Current, Kootenay, and Lethbridge for 5th/6th/7th/8th/9th in the East. Prince Albert won 20 games before the end of November. Now they are fighting just to finish in the middle of the pack.
From Medicine Hat and Swift Current (71 pts) down to Lethbridge (62 points) is only 9 points' difference so there's the potential for movement up or down by all these teams.
While the Raiders and Broncos cannot miss the playoffs, one of the Tigers//Ice/Hurricanes will. No mistake though, Lethbridge has their backs up against the wall to make the playoffs. They trail Kootenay for the last spot by 6 points with only 5 games remaining. They need to win at least three of their remaining games, plus win one more game for each game Kootenay wins. Tall order but in Lethbridge's favour is the home-and-home they have with the Ice on Tuesday & Wednesday. It goes without saying that they need to win at least one and preferably both of those games.
And the remaining schedules for the teams still engaged in some playoff races over the final days of the season:
Calgary (5):
Home (4): Lethbridge, Red Deer, Medicine Hat, Kootenay
Away (1): Kootenay
Edmonton (4):
Home (2): Saskatoon, Red Deer
Away (2): Moose Jaw, Red Deer
Everett (4):
Home (2): Victoria, Tri-City
Away (2): Seattle, Victoria
Kamloops (3):
Home (1): Prince George
Away (2): Kelowna, Prince George
Kelowna (4):
Home (3): Kamloops, Prince George, Vancouver
Away (1): Vancouver
Kootenay (5):
Home (2): Lethbridge, Calgary
Away (3): Spokane, Lethbridge, Calgary
Lethbridge (5):
Home (2): Kootenay, Medicine Hat
Away (3): Calgary, Kootenay, Medicine Hat
Medicine Hat (4):
Home (1): Lethbridge
Away (3): Prince Albert, Calgary, Lethbridge
Portland (5):
Home (2): Seattle, Spokane
Away (3): Victoria, Victoria, Seattle
Prince Albert (4):
Home (3): Medicine Hat, Saskatoon, Saskatoon
Away (1): Brandon
Prince George (7):
Home (1): Kamloops
Away (6): Seattle, Tri-City, Vancouver, Spokane, Kelowna, Kamloops
Red Deer (3):
Home (1): Edmonton
Away (2): Calgary, Edmonton
Saskatoon (4):
Home (1): Regina
Away (3): Edmonton, Prince Albert, Prince Albert
Seattle (4):
Home (3): Everett, Tri-City, Portland
Away (1): Portland
Spokane (5):
Home (3): Kootenay, Prince George, Tri-City
Away (2): Tri-City, Portland
Swift Current (3):
Home (1): Regina
Away (2): Brandon, Regina
Tri-City (5):
Home (2): Prince George, Spokane
Away (3): Seattle, Spokane, Everett
Victoria (5):
Home (3): Portland, Portland, Everett
Away (2): Vancouver, Everett
Four teams have been mathematically eliminated from the postseason already - Brandon, Regina, and Moose Jaw in the East, and Vancouver in the West. But beyond that, only two playoff seeds have been clinched and that's #1 in the East, which belongs to Edmonton, and #2 in the East, which will belong to Saskatoon in the first round.
Portland has not yet mathematically clinched #1 in their conference, but they will (by this Saturday night, I'd bet), so I'm not going to call that a "playoff race" anymore. Same with Portland clinching first overall - they haven't yet, but they will by this weekend most likely.
So the six races that are still up in the air....
1) Kamloops vs Kelowna for #2/#3 in the West. Kelowna has a five point lead and one game in hand over the Blazers in this battle, so the race is all but over.
There's a side script to this battle as well and that's that Kelowna is also only one point behind Edmonton for 2nd overall. But I suspect not too many people are really concerned about 2nd overall; the only meaning it will have would be home ice in the WHL Final if Edmonton met the Rockets in that series.
2) Tri-City, Spokane and Victoria for 4th/5th/6th in the West. Victoria is horribly slumping right now and have dropped 9 points back of Spokane for 5th. With only 6 games to play, it seems pretty likely that Victoria is going to end up 6th. So this is really a 2 horse race between the Americans and Chiefs to see who gets home ice for their first round #4 vs #5 matchup. The Ams have a one point lead with both teams having 6 games to play - including two head-to-head games. Could go to the wire.
3) Seattle, Everett, and Prince George for 7th/8th/9th in the West. This race is pretty close to a two horse race since Prince George is 6 points back of Everett for 8th and the Cougars play 6 of their last 7 games on the road, and they are the 2nd worst team in the entire league on the road. It ain't promising for them. So really it's Everett vs Seattle (Seattle has a two point lead with games played even at 67) for the right to be eliminated in four quick games in the first round by Portland and Kelowna/Kamloops. Battling for 7th/8th is really a little bit like a condemned man being offered his choice of the electric chair or a firing squad.
4) Calgary vs Saskatoon for 2nd overall in the East. The Blades are going to get the #2 seed in the first round, but for the second round the seeds get re-done by points, which means that if the Hitmen and Blades end up facing each other in the second round then whoever has more points will get home ice advantage in that series. Calgary currently has a 1 point lead on the Blades and also have one game in hand.
I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Red Deer is technically still in this race as well, but they are 7 points back of Calgary and they only have four games remaining so it seems very unlikely they would catch the Hitmen to have a chance at 2nd overall in the conference.
5) Red Deer vs Saskatoon for possible #3 seeding in the 2nd round. Red Deer isn't likely going to catch Calgary but they can still catch Saskatoon - they're 4 points back and the Blades have a game in hand. Unlikely but not impossible. If it happened, then assuming no upsets in the first round, we would see Calgary #2, Red Deer #3, and Saskatoon #4 for the second round, meaning Saskatoon would draw Edmonton in the second round. But like I said, it's unlikely to happen.
6) Prince Albert, Medicine Hat, Swift Current, Kootenay, and Lethbridge for 5th/6th/7th/8th/9th in the East. Prince Albert won 20 games before the end of November. Now they are fighting just to finish in the middle of the pack.
From Medicine Hat and Swift Current (71 pts) down to Lethbridge (62 points) is only 9 points' difference so there's the potential for movement up or down by all these teams.
While the Raiders and Broncos cannot miss the playoffs, one of the Tigers//Ice/Hurricanes will. No mistake though, Lethbridge has their backs up against the wall to make the playoffs. They trail Kootenay for the last spot by 6 points with only 5 games remaining. They need to win at least three of their remaining games, plus win one more game for each game Kootenay wins. Tall order but in Lethbridge's favour is the home-and-home they have with the Ice on Tuesday & Wednesday. It goes without saying that they need to win at least one and preferably both of those games.
And the remaining schedules for the teams still engaged in some playoff races over the final days of the season:
Calgary (5):
Home (4): Lethbridge, Red Deer, Medicine Hat, Kootenay
Away (1): Kootenay
Edmonton (4):
Home (2): Saskatoon, Red Deer
Away (2): Moose Jaw, Red Deer
Everett (4):
Home (2): Victoria, Tri-City
Away (2): Seattle, Victoria
Kamloops (3):
Home (1): Prince George
Away (2): Kelowna, Prince George
Kelowna (4):
Home (3): Kamloops, Prince George, Vancouver
Away (1): Vancouver
Kootenay (5):
Home (2): Lethbridge, Calgary
Away (3): Spokane, Lethbridge, Calgary
Lethbridge (5):
Home (2): Kootenay, Medicine Hat
Away (3): Calgary, Kootenay, Medicine Hat
Medicine Hat (4):
Home (1): Lethbridge
Away (3): Prince Albert, Calgary, Lethbridge
Portland (5):
Home (2): Seattle, Spokane
Away (3): Victoria, Victoria, Seattle
Prince Albert (4):
Home (3): Medicine Hat, Saskatoon, Saskatoon
Away (1): Brandon
Prince George (7):
Home (1): Kamloops
Away (6): Seattle, Tri-City, Vancouver, Spokane, Kelowna, Kamloops
Red Deer (3):
Home (1): Edmonton
Away (2): Calgary, Edmonton
Saskatoon (4):
Home (1): Regina
Away (3): Edmonton, Prince Albert, Prince Albert
Seattle (4):
Home (3): Everett, Tri-City, Portland
Away (1): Portland
Spokane (5):
Home (3): Kootenay, Prince George, Tri-City
Away (2): Tri-City, Portland
Swift Current (3):
Home (1): Regina
Away (2): Brandon, Regina
Tri-City (5):
Home (2): Prince George, Spokane
Away (3): Seattle, Spokane, Everett
Victoria (5):
Home (3): Portland, Portland, Everett
Away (2): Vancouver, Everett
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