Fistric match

You don't see match penalties that often (thankfully) but here's an odd one from the NHL last night. Former Giants defenceman Mark Fistric was tagged with the match penalty for hitting Eric Nystrom with his own helmet during a fight. See the 1:15 or so mark of the video for a good slow-mo look at what happened.

Reminds me of the time 10 years or so ago I saw Bobby-Chad Mitchell fight Robin Gomez....they both took off their helmets first (of course this was before the WHL decided such conduct was evil) but instead of dropping it, Mitchell threw his into Gomez's face. Amazingly, he didn't get anything extra for that.....whereas Fistric is probably going to get a game or two suspension for last night's incident.

Deadline early returns

Another fun stats thing this morning....how have the teams in the league done since the trade deadline? Everyone has played 5-10 games since January 10, so who are reaping the benefits of their moves (or non-moves) and who are hurting?

		Pre-Deadline Win%		GP	W	L	OTL	Post-Deadline Win%	Win % Diff.
Brandon Wheat Kings		0.670		9	6	3	0	0.667	-.003
Calgary Hitmen		0.690		7	4	3	0	0.571	-.119
Chilliwack Bruins		0.500		7	3	4	0	0.429	-.071
Edmonton Oil Kings		0.352		7	0	7	0	0.000	-.352
Everett Silvertips		0.602		6	6	0	0	1.000	+.398
Kamloops Blazers		0.489		8	5	3	0	0.625	+.136
Kelowna Rockets		0.444		6	3	1	2	0.667	+.223
Kootenay Ice		0.616		7	5	1	1	0.786	+.170
Lethbridge Hurricanes		0.393		7	2	5	0	0.286	-.107
Medicine Hat Tigers		0.638		7	5	2	0	0.714	+.076
Moose Jaw Warriors		0.585		8	3	2	3	0.563	-.023
Portland Winterhawks		0.614		7	4	3	0	0.571	-.043
Prince Albert Raiders		0.522		6	4	2	0	0.667	+.145
Prince George Cougars		0.233		7	0	7	0	0.000	-.233
Red Deer Rebels		0.558		6	4	2	0	0.667	+.109
Regina Pats		0.433		5	4	0	1	0.900	+.467
Saskatoon Blades		0.738		7	4	2	1	0.643	-.095
Seattle Thunderbirds		0.395		6	0	4	2	0.167	-.228
Spokane Chiefs		0.605		7	4	3	0	0.571	-.034
Swift Current Broncos		0.558		8	2	5	1	0.313	-.246
Tri-City Americans		0.733		7	5	1	1	0.786	+.053
Vancouver Giants		0.620		5	2	3	0	0.400	-.220

The most-improved team since the deadline is Regina - .433 before, .900 since - which may have more to do with getting everyone in the lineup at once than with anything they did at the deadline....since they didn't really do anything at the deadline.

Everett is a close second but the Silvertips were on a roll before the deadline, so this is just them continuining that roll and not anything they did around the 10th.

Edmonton is way down - .352 before the deadline, and pointless in seven games since. Swift Current, Prince George, and Seattle are all down as well - the latter two being teams (along with Edmonton) that were sellers at the deadline and who could be expected to take a drop as a result.

How about scoring? Whose scoring is up and whose is down since the deadline?

	Pre-Deadline			Post-Deadline
	GP	GF	GA	GP	GF	GA	GPG Dif	GA Dif
Regina Pats	45	157	176	5	23	15	1.11	-0.91
Everett Silvertips	44	137	122	6	22	13	0.55	-0.61
Kelowna Rockets	45	138	156	6	22	16	0.60	-0.80
Kootenay Ice	43	154	128	7	31	27	0.85	0.88
Prince Albert Raiders	45	157	159	6	22	13	0.18	-1.37
Kamloops Blazers	44	150	182	8	31	28	0.47	-0.64
Red Deer Rebels	43	126	132	6	17	19	-0.10	0.10
Medicine Hat Tigers	47	189	160	7	32	19	0.55	-0.69
Tri-City Americans	43	171	111	7	26	16	-0.26	-0.30
Brandon Wheat Kings	44	189	134	9	36	27	-0.30	-0.05
Moose Jaw Warriors	41	160	138	8	20	25	-1.40	-0.24
Spokane Chiefs	43	134	106	7	22	23	0.03	0.82
Portland Winterhawks	44	163	153	7	28	23	0.30	-0.19
Chilliwack Bruins	46	139	157	7	18	19	-0.45	-0.70
Saskatoon Blades	42	148	121	7	23	22	-0.24	0.26
Lethbridge Hurricanes	42	114	156	7	17	27	-0.29	0.14
Calgary Hitmen	42	147	119	7	24	22	-0.07	0.31
Vancouver Giants	46	169	140	5	15	13	-0.67	-0.44
Seattle Thunderbirds	43	106	144	6	11	22	-0.63	0.32
Prince George Cougars	43	100	193	7	14	36	-0.33	0.65
Swift Current Broncos	43	143	144	8	26	33	-0.08	0.78
Edmonton Oil Kings	44	102	162	7	12	34	-0.60	1.18

Regina's offensive output is up by over a goal a game since the deadline compared to before the deadline. Again though, probably a factor of getting all their big guns in the lineup together at the same time finally.

Kootenay, Kelowna, Everett, and Medicine Hat are also up by over a half-goal a game since January 10.

Moose Jaw is way down by almost a goal and a half - and they didn't even make any significant changes other than trading Travis Hamonic. Something tells me he wasn't worth 1.4 goals a game to them. Edmonton, Seattle, and Vancouver are also down by at least a half-goal per game or more.

(and sorry about the font differences....I'm playing with different ways to get stuff from the spreadsheet to the blog)

Stretch run stats

A few things this morning to help you analyze the chances of each team down the homestretch...

First, the updated "stretch records"....these are the required records each team must post in order to make the playoffs, assuming you need 78 points in the East and 64 points in the West to make the postseason:

East:

Saskatoon Blades: 4-19-1 (.188)

Brandon Wheat Kings: 4-15-1 (.225)

Medicine Hat Tigers: 5-14-0 (.263)

Calgary Hitmen: 6-17-0 (.261)

Kootenay Ice: 7-15-0 (.318)

Moose Jaw Warriors: 11-13-0 (.458)

Prince Albert Raiders: 11-9-1 (.548)

Red Deer Rebels: 12-12-0 (.500)

Swift Current Broncos: 12-8-1 (.595)

Regina Pats: 15-7-0 (.682)

Lethbridge Hurricanes: 20-3-1 (.854)

If 78 points is required, Edmonton cannot attain that total and so they can be said to likely be eliminated already. Not mathematically of course, but in all probability anyway.

West:

Portland Winterhawks: 1-20-0 (.048)

Vancouver Giants: 1-19-1 (.071)

Spokane Chiefs: 3-20-0 (.13)

Kamloops Blazers: 5-14-1 (.275)

Chilliwack Bruins: 6-14-0 (.300)

Kelowna Rockets: 9-13-0 (0.409)

Seattle Thunderbirds: 14-10-0 (.583)

Prince George Cougars: 22-1-0 (.957)

As with Edmonton being "eliminated" in the East, so too have Portland and Everett "clinched" spots in the West. Not mathematically, but they both already have more than 64 points so if that ends up being the minimum standard in the West, then neither of those teams needs to win another game in order to make the postseason.

Similar to Edmonton, Prince George will be "eliminated" with three more lost points.

So what will it take for teams to be mathematically eliminated or mathematically clinch spots? It's too early to start worrying about the so-called "magic numbers" for most playoff spots yet, but here's a few that are coming up soon....

Tri-City to (mathematically) clinch a playoff spot: 5.5 wins or Seattle losses

Everett to (mathematically) clinch a playoff spot: 9.5 wins or Seattle losses

Edmonton to (mathematically) be eliminated: 9.5 losses or wins by the 8th place team in the East (whoever that is each day)

Something else to think about.....the remaining schedules for each team, how tough are they? The strength of each team's remaining opponents, by average win %:

East:

Saskatoon Blades: 0.550

Brandon Wheat Kings: 0.576

Medicine Hat Tigers: 0.536

Calgary Hitmen: 0.528

Kootenay Ice: 0.533

Moose Jaw Warriors: 0.580

Prince Albert Raiders: 0.588

Red Deer Rebels: 0.506

Swift Current Broncos: 0.594

Regina Pats: 0.591

Lethbridge Hurricanes: 0.512

Edmonton Oil Kings: 0.475

West:

Tri-City Americans: 0.502

Everett Silvertips: 0.490

Portland Winterhawks: 0.477

Vancouver Giants: 0.490

Spokane Chiefs: 0.548

Kamloops Blazers: 0.434

Chilliwack Bruins: 0.484

Kelowna Rockets: 0.419

Seattle Thunderbirds: 0.520

Prince George Cougars: 0.472

To add value to those numbers, look at the current battle for 6th through 9th in the East. Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, Red Deer, and Swift Current are all separated by 3 points in those four spots right now - but Red Deer has a quite significantly easier schedule than the other three. Does that make the Rebels slightly more favoured to make the playoffs than any of the other three?

Same with Regina.....we know they need to go 15-7 down the stretch to attain 78 points - but now we see they need to do that against a tough average opponent at .591. In fact, that is the 2nd-toughest average opponent in the entire league (only Swift has it worse). The Pats have been playing better lately, but is it going to be enough?

One last factor in schedule strength - the number of home games remaining versus the number of away games remaining:

East:

Saskatoon Blades: 13 home, 11 away. Difference: +2

Brandon Wheat Kings: 12 home, 8 away. Difference: +4

Medicine Hat Tigers: 12 home, 7 away. Difference: +5

Calgary Hitmen: 13 home, 10 away. Difference: +3

Kootenay Ice: 10 home, 12 away. Difference: -2

Moose Jaw Warriors: 9 home, 15 away. Difference: -6

Prince Albert Raiders: 8 home, 13 away. Difference: -5

Red Deer Rebels: 11 home, 13 away. Difference: -2

Swift Current Broncos: 11 home, 10 away. Difference: +1

Regina Pats: 11 home, 11 away. Difference: 0

Lethbridge Hurricanes: 13 home, 11 away. Difference: +2

Edmonton Oil Kings: 13 home, 8 away. Difference: +5

West:

Tri-City Americans: 9 home, 14 away. Difference: -5

Everett Silvertips: 11 home, 11 away. Difference: 0

Portland Winterhawks: 11 home, 10 away. Difference: +1

Vancouver Giants: 8 home, 13 away. Difference: -5

Spokane Chiefs: 13 home, 10 away. Difference: +3

Kamloops Blazers: 11 home, 10 away. Difference: +1

Chilliwack Bruins: 8 home, 11 away. Difference: -3

Kelowna Rockets: 11 home, 11 away. Difference: 0

Seattle Thunderbirds: 12 home, 12 away. Difference: 0

Prince George Cougars: 12 home, 11 away. Difference: +1

In the East, Moose Jaw and Prince Albert are facing big home-ice deficits as they jockey for playoff spots. So are Tri-City and Vancouver in the West, but those two teams are pretty safe in terms of making the postseason.

Brandon, Medicine Hat, and Edmonton have favourable home-heavy schedules, which could help them in getting better playoff seedings. Well, maybe not Edmonton....theirs will be good for torturing their fans some more.

I will update and re-post these stats periodically as the season goes on....more frequently the closer we get to the end of the season.....