Stretch run stats

A few things this morning to help you analyze the chances of each team down the homestretch...

First, the updated "stretch records"....these are the required records each team must post in order to make the playoffs, assuming you need 78 points in the East and 64 points in the West to make the postseason:

East:

Saskatoon Blades: 4-19-1 (.188)

Brandon Wheat Kings: 4-15-1 (.225)

Medicine Hat Tigers: 5-14-0 (.263)

Calgary Hitmen: 6-17-0 (.261)

Kootenay Ice: 7-15-0 (.318)

Moose Jaw Warriors: 11-13-0 (.458)

Prince Albert Raiders: 11-9-1 (.548)

Red Deer Rebels: 12-12-0 (.500)

Swift Current Broncos: 12-8-1 (.595)

Regina Pats: 15-7-0 (.682)

Lethbridge Hurricanes: 20-3-1 (.854)

If 78 points is required, Edmonton cannot attain that total and so they can be said to likely be eliminated already. Not mathematically of course, but in all probability anyway.

West:

Portland Winterhawks: 1-20-0 (.048)

Vancouver Giants: 1-19-1 (.071)

Spokane Chiefs: 3-20-0 (.13)

Kamloops Blazers: 5-14-1 (.275)

Chilliwack Bruins: 6-14-0 (.300)

Kelowna Rockets: 9-13-0 (0.409)

Seattle Thunderbirds: 14-10-0 (.583)

Prince George Cougars: 22-1-0 (.957)

As with Edmonton being "eliminated" in the East, so too have Portland and Everett "clinched" spots in the West. Not mathematically, but they both already have more than 64 points so if that ends up being the minimum standard in the West, then neither of those teams needs to win another game in order to make the postseason.

Similar to Edmonton, Prince George will be "eliminated" with three more lost points.

So what will it take for teams to be mathematically eliminated or mathematically clinch spots? It's too early to start worrying about the so-called "magic numbers" for most playoff spots yet, but here's a few that are coming up soon....

Tri-City to (mathematically) clinch a playoff spot: 5.5 wins or Seattle losses

Everett to (mathematically) clinch a playoff spot: 9.5 wins or Seattle losses

Edmonton to (mathematically) be eliminated: 9.5 losses or wins by the 8th place team in the East (whoever that is each day)

Something else to think about.....the remaining schedules for each team, how tough are they? The strength of each team's remaining opponents, by average win %:

East:

Saskatoon Blades: 0.550

Brandon Wheat Kings: 0.576

Medicine Hat Tigers: 0.536

Calgary Hitmen: 0.528

Kootenay Ice: 0.533

Moose Jaw Warriors: 0.580

Prince Albert Raiders: 0.588

Red Deer Rebels: 0.506

Swift Current Broncos: 0.594

Regina Pats: 0.591

Lethbridge Hurricanes: 0.512

Edmonton Oil Kings: 0.475

West:

Tri-City Americans: 0.502

Everett Silvertips: 0.490

Portland Winterhawks: 0.477

Vancouver Giants: 0.490

Spokane Chiefs: 0.548

Kamloops Blazers: 0.434

Chilliwack Bruins: 0.484

Kelowna Rockets: 0.419

Seattle Thunderbirds: 0.520

Prince George Cougars: 0.472

To add value to those numbers, look at the current battle for 6th through 9th in the East. Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, Red Deer, and Swift Current are all separated by 3 points in those four spots right now - but Red Deer has a quite significantly easier schedule than the other three. Does that make the Rebels slightly more favoured to make the playoffs than any of the other three?

Same with Regina.....we know they need to go 15-7 down the stretch to attain 78 points - but now we see they need to do that against a tough average opponent at .591. In fact, that is the 2nd-toughest average opponent in the entire league (only Swift has it worse). The Pats have been playing better lately, but is it going to be enough?

One last factor in schedule strength - the number of home games remaining versus the number of away games remaining:

East:

Saskatoon Blades: 13 home, 11 away. Difference: +2

Brandon Wheat Kings: 12 home, 8 away. Difference: +4

Medicine Hat Tigers: 12 home, 7 away. Difference: +5

Calgary Hitmen: 13 home, 10 away. Difference: +3

Kootenay Ice: 10 home, 12 away. Difference: -2

Moose Jaw Warriors: 9 home, 15 away. Difference: -6

Prince Albert Raiders: 8 home, 13 away. Difference: -5

Red Deer Rebels: 11 home, 13 away. Difference: -2

Swift Current Broncos: 11 home, 10 away. Difference: +1

Regina Pats: 11 home, 11 away. Difference: 0

Lethbridge Hurricanes: 13 home, 11 away. Difference: +2

Edmonton Oil Kings: 13 home, 8 away. Difference: +5

West:

Tri-City Americans: 9 home, 14 away. Difference: -5

Everett Silvertips: 11 home, 11 away. Difference: 0

Portland Winterhawks: 11 home, 10 away. Difference: +1

Vancouver Giants: 8 home, 13 away. Difference: -5

Spokane Chiefs: 13 home, 10 away. Difference: +3

Kamloops Blazers: 11 home, 10 away. Difference: +1

Chilliwack Bruins: 8 home, 11 away. Difference: -3

Kelowna Rockets: 11 home, 11 away. Difference: 0

Seattle Thunderbirds: 12 home, 12 away. Difference: 0

Prince George Cougars: 12 home, 11 away. Difference: +1

In the East, Moose Jaw and Prince Albert are facing big home-ice deficits as they jockey for playoff spots. So are Tri-City and Vancouver in the West, but those two teams are pretty safe in terms of making the postseason.

Brandon, Medicine Hat, and Edmonton have favourable home-heavy schedules, which could help them in getting better playoff seedings. Well, maybe not Edmonton....theirs will be good for torturing their fans some more.

I will update and re-post these stats periodically as the season goes on....more frequently the closer we get to the end of the season.....