2013-14 playoff races

Every year I like to take a look at the playoff races in the WHL and kind of count down what it takes for teams to clinch playoff spots, home ice advantage, etc. Got a late start on this post this year but better late than never...

Eastern Conference playoff races:

1) Edmonton vs Calgary for 1st/2nd place in the Central division and 1st/3rd seeds in the Conference.

Calgary leads the Oil Kings by two points but the Oil Kings have two games in hand. Should be an interesting finish in this race as they both have fairly similar schedules remaining with four game roads trips through the Eastern division.

Remaining schedules:
Edmonton (9): vs Saskatoon, @ Swift Current, @ Regina, @ Brandon, @ Moose Jaw, vs Kootenay, @ Medicine Hat, @ Red Deer, vs Red Deer
Calgary (7): @ Brandon, @ Moose Jaw, @ Prince Albert, @ Saskatoon, vs Lethbridge, @ Kootenay, vs Kootenay

Calgary's "magic number" to win this race: 8 wins or Edmonton losses.

2) Regina vs Swift Current for 1st/2nd place in the Eastern division and #2 seed in the Conference.

Regina has a 7 point lead which, with only 7 games left for the Broncos, will be tough for Swift to overcome as long as the Pats don't go into the tank. 

Remaining schedules:
Regina (6): vs Edmonton, @ Lethbridge, @ Kootenay, vs Prince Albert, vs Brandon, @ Brandon
Swift Current (7): vs Brandon, vs Edmonton, @ Red Deer, @ Lethbridge, vs Saskatoon, vs Moose Jaw, @ Moose Jaw

Regina's magic number to win this race: 3.5 wins or Broncos losses.

3) Medicine Hat vs Kootenay for #4 in the Conference and home ice in the first round of the playoffs.

This one is worth watching. It seems likely at this point that these two will meet in the first round of the playoffs so this race will determine who gets home ice advantage. The Tigers have a 7 point lead but the Ice have a game in hand that they can use to cut the lead to 5 points.

Remaining schedules:
Medicine Hat (6): vs Red Deer, @ Kootenay, vs Red Deer, vs Edmonton, @ Lethbridge, vs Lethbridge
Kootenay (7): vs Red Deer, vs Medicine Hat, vs Regina, @ Edmonton, @ Red Deer, vs Calgary, @ Calgary

Medicine Hat's magic number to win this race: 4.5 wins or Ice losses.

4) Red Deer vs Prince Albert (and maybe Brandon too!) for the last playoff spot.

Right now this race is principally between the Rebels and Raiders as they currently occupy spots #8 and #9. Brandon could drop into the #8 or #9 spot with a losing streak but for now we'll focus on Raiders vs Rebels here. Rebels have a two point lead but the Raiders have a game in hand. Very close.

Remaining schedules:
Prince Albert (7): vs Moose Jaw, vs Calgary, vs Brandon, @ Moose Jaw, @ Regina, vs Saskatoon, @ Saskatoon
Red Deer (7): @ Kootenay, @ Medicine Hat, vs Swift Current, @ Medicine Hat, vs Kootenay, vs Edmonton, @ Edmonton

Red Deer's magic number to win this race: 7.5 wins or Raiders losses.

Other Eastern Conference notes:

 - Edmonton, Calgary, Medicine Hat, and Regina have clinched playoff spots.
 - Calgary has clinched home ice in the first round of the playoffs
 - Lethbridge, Saskatoon, and Moose Jaw are mathematically eliminated from the post-season.

Numbers to clinch playoff spots:

 - Kootenay will clinch with 1 win or Raiders loss
 - Swift Current will clinch with 3.5 wins or Raiders losses
 - Brandon will clinch with 5 wins or Raiders losses
 - Red Deer will clinch with 7.5 wins or Raiders losses
 - Prince Albert will clinch with 7.5 wins or Rebels losses

Other numbers:

 - Edmonton to clinch home ice in the first round: 0.5 wins or Ice losses

Playoff matchups if the season ended today:

#1 Edmonton Oil Kings vs #8 Red Deer Rebels
#2 Regina Pats vs #7 Brandon Wheat Kings
#3 Calgary Hitmen vs #6 Swift Current Broncos
#4 Medicine Hat Tigers vs #5 Kootenay Ice


Western Conference playoff races:

1) Kelowna vs Portland for #1/#2 seed in the Conference.

Kelowna has a 7 point lead but Portland has won 21 in a row. The Rockets need to play their butts off to keep ahead of the juggernaut getting ever-closer in their rearview mirror. Could be an exciting race to the finish in this one.

Remaining schedules:
Kelowna (8): @ Vancouver, @ Everett, vs Spokane, vs Tri-City, vs Victoria, @ Kamloops, @ Vancouver, vs Vancouver
Portland (8):  @ Seattle, @ Tri-City, vs Seattle, vs Vancouver, vs Tri-City, @ Seattle, vs Seattle, vs Everett

Kelowna's "magic number" to win this race: 4.5 wins or Winterhawks losses.

2) Kelowna vs Victoria for the B.C. division title and guaranteed top-two seed.

A race in name only, Kelowna has a 14 point lead. It will be almost impossible for Victoria to run them down. 

Remaining schedules:
Kelowna (8): @ Vancouver, @ Everett, vs Spokane, vs Tri-City, vs Victoria, @ Kamloops, @ Vancouver, vs Vancouver
Victoria (7): @ Prince George, vs Kamloops, vs Kamloops, @ Kelowna, @ Vancouver, vs Everett, @ Everett

Kelowna's magic number to win this race: 0.5 wins or Royals losses.

3) Portland vs Seattle for the U.S. division title and guaranteed top-two seed.

Portland has a 17 point lead and have those 21 wins in a row. This is a race the way Usain Bolt vs me in the 100m is a "race".

Remaining schedules:
Portland (8): @ Seattle, @ Tri-City, vs Seattle, vs Vancouver, vs Tri-City, @ Seattle, vs Seattle, vs Everett
Seattle (9): vs Portland, vs Everett, @ Portland, vs Everett, vs Vancouver, vs Spokane, vs Portland, @ Portland, @ Tri-City

Portland's magic number to win this race: 0.5 wins or Thunderbirds losses.

4) Spokane vs Seattle for #4 in the Conference and home ice in the first round of the playoffs.

Seattle has a 4 point lead and a game in gand. Shaping up to be a likely first round playoff matchup here (they are 4th and 5th, 10 points back of 3rd and 5 points up on 6th) so the winner of this race will get home ice advantage of course....

Remaining schedules:
Seattle (9): vs Portland, vs Everett, @ Portland, vs Everett, vs Vancouver, vs Spokane, vs Portland, @ Portland, @ Tri-City
Spokane (8): vs Tri-City, @ Kelowna, @ Prince George, @ Prince George, @ Seattle, vs Everett, vs Tri-City, @ Tri-City

Seattle's magic number to win this race: 6 wins or Chiefs losses

5) Prince George vs Tri-City for the last playoff spot.

It looks close if you only look at points - Prince George is only two points back of the Americans for that last playoff spot. But the Americans have three games in hand and with the Cougars only having five games left to play, they're close to powerless here unless the Americans squander those three games in hand. The Cougars do have a favourable home-heavy schedule. 

Remaining schedules:
Tri-City (8): @ Spokane, vs Portland, vs Everett, @ Kelowna, @ Portland, @ Spokane, vs Spokane, vs Tri-City
Prince George (5): vs Victoria, vs Spokane, vs Spokane, @ Kamloops, vs Kamloops

Tri-City's magic number to win this race: 4.5 wins or Cougars losses.


Other Western Conference notes:

 - Kelowna, Portland, Victoria, Seattle, Spokane, and Everett have clinched playoff spots.
 - Kelowna and Portland have clinched home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs at least.
 - Kamloops is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

Numbers to clinch playoff spots:

 - Vancouver will clinch with 0.5 wins or Cougars losses
 - Tri-City will clinch with 4.5 wins or Cougars losses
 - Prince George will clinch with 9.5 wins or Americans losses

Other numbers:

 - Victoria to clinch home ice in the first round: 1 win or Chiefs loss

Playoff matchups if the season ended today:

#1 Kelowna Rockets vs #8 Tri-City Americans
#2 Portland Winterhawks vs #7 Vancouver Giants
#3 Victoria Royals vs #6 Everett Silvertips
#4 Seattle Thunderbirds vs #5 Spokane Chiefs



LAST UPDATED: After games of February 28

Trade deadline early returns

It's been about three and a half weeks since the WHL trade deadline on January 10, and most teams have played about 10 games - give or take one or two - since the deadline. With that in mind, here's a look at how teams have done since the deadline - records, plus goals for/against, win% since the deadline, and the difference between their win% since the deadline and what it was prior to the deadline - ie, are they playing better or worse since then.

Some interesting results for sure.

	GP	W	L	OTL	SL	PTS	GF	GA	Win %	Diff %
Portland Winterhawks	11	10	0	0	1	21	54	15	0.955	0.239
Edmonton Oil Kings	11	10	1	0	0	20	56	25	0.909	0.185
Kootenay Ice	8	6	1	0	1	13	36	22	0.813	0.273
Seattle Thunderbirds	10	8	2	0	0	16	25	18	0.800	0.143
Kelowna Rockets	12	9	2	0	1	19	54	32	0.792	-0.038
Red Deer Rebels	10	7	2	0	1	15	35	24	0.750	0.190
Victoria Royals	9	6	2	0	1	13	28	20	0.722	0.056
Tri-City Americans	11	7	3	0	1	15	30	22	0.682	0.143
Spokane Chiefs	12	6	3	3	0	15	31	38	0.625	-0.035
Brandon Wheat Kings	10	5	3	1	1	12	40	36	0.600	0.020
Regina Pats	10	6	4	0	0	12	36	28	0.600	0.061
Prince George Cougars	11	6	4	0	1	13	45	53	0.591	0.148
Vancouver Giants	11	5	4	1	1	12	41	41	0.545	-0.012
Medicine Hat Tigers	10	5	5	0	0	10	35	28	0.500	-0.122
Swift Current Broncos	10	4	4	1	1	10	33	31	0.500	-0.069
Everett Silvertips	11	3	6	2	0	8	28	46	0.364	-0.205
Calgary Hitmen	10	3	6	1	0	7	31	38	0.350	-0.330
Prince Albert Raiders	10	2	7	0	1	5	19	41	0.250	-0.240
Saskatoon Blades	9	2	7	0	0	4	20	41	0.222	-0.085
Lethbridge Hurricanes	10	2	8	0	0	4	15	54	0.200	-0.036
Kamloops Blazers	11	1	9	0	1	3	30	52	0.136	-0.128
Moose Jaw Warriors	9	0	7	0	2	2	17	37	0.111	-0.229

The first thing that jumps out at me is that Portland (followed closely by Edmonton) have been pretty much unstoppable since the deadline. Portland has netted 21 out of a possible 22 points since the deadline and are outscoring their opposition at a 4:1 pace. Edmonton is very close behind with 20 out of a possible 22 points, although less dominant in the GF:GA department in their wins. 

Both those teams were pretty good before the deadline though - so the most improved team since the deadline is Kootenay. The Ice are playing .813 hockey in 8 games since January 10, after being a .540 team before that date - an improvement of .273. 

At the other end of the spectrum is Calgary, who made several significant moves leading up to the deadline but are a terrible .350 pace since, after being .680 before - a drop of -.330. Prince Albert is another team that has dropped off since the deadline, playing .250 since after playing .490 before the deadline but making several moves intended to improve their team. I guess sometimes it just takes time to gel after making moves and the Hitmen and Raiders haven't found that chemistry yet.

Saskatoon, Lethbridge, Kamloops, and Moose Jaw have been the worst teams since the deadline, although they were the worst teams BEFORE the deadline too so not too much has changed there.