The first round of the WHL playoffs kind of resembled a curling rink, didn't they.....cries of "sweep! sweep! sweep!" everywhere.
This was surely one of the least-interesting first rounds in recent memory in the WHL, with five series ending in 4-0 sweeps and one other series ending in five games. That's 38% of the playoff teams who saw their playoffs last less than a week.
(This phenomenon wasn't limited to the WHL either - in the QMJHL, seven of eight first round series were sweeps!)
So only two series remain - Vancouver/Spokane, which is tied 2-2, and Moose Jaw/Regina, which sees the Warriors with a 3-1 lead, so that series could also end in five games if the Warriors win game five at home tonight.
The 2nd round of the playoffs is also becoming more clear in both the East and West. One matchup is already set, in the West where #2 seed Portland will host #3 seed Kamloops.
The other West matchup is also mostly determined; we know Tri-City will host the Vancouver/Spokane series winner.
Nothing is determined in the East yet. Edmonton will host the lowest-ranked team to survive the first round. That will be Regina if they come back to beat the Warriors, or it will be Brandon if the Warriors eliminate the Pats.
Medicine Hat will visit the Warriors if Moose Jaw wins, or they'll host the Wheat Kings if the Pats come back in that series.
Friday, March 30, 2012
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
3-0 everywhere
I guess it's not really surprising, given the level of mismatches in some of the Western conference first round series, but after three games played there are four of the WHL's eight first round series which currently stand at a 3-0 count in favor of somebody:
- Tri-City leads Everett 3-0
- Kamloops leads Victoria 3-0
- Portland leads Kelowna 3-0
- and the only one that is even a tiny bit surprising, Medicine Hat leads Saskatoon 3-0
In the entire history of the WHL, only once has a team ever come back from down 3-0 to win a series. That was 1996 when Spokane accomplished the near-impossible feat against Portland.
In other words, the overwhelming evidence of history suggests that Everett, Victoria, Kelowna, and Saskatoon are definitely going to lose those series.
The Edmonton/Kootenay series has only played two games, but Edmonton has won both so with a win in game three tonight in Cranbrook, the Oil Kings could make it five out of eight series which opened 3-0.
Brandon is also up 3-1 on the Hitmen after four games, so if the Hitmen can't rally with three straight wins, that series will also be over soon. (As an aside, does anyone else think the Hitmen might now be regretting their decision to use the 2-3-2 format in this series? I mean, after playing hard right to the end of the season to get 3rd place and home ice advantage, they promptly chose the series option which gave away home ice advantage to the #6 seed in the event of a five game series)
Only the Moose Jaw/Regina and Vancouver/Spokane series (both at 2-1) are still promising any kind of tight battle at this point - and that could change in a hurry for both if Moose Jaw and Vancouver were to win the game 4's and take 3-1 leads.
Most un-dramatic first round ever?
- Tri-City leads Everett 3-0
- Kamloops leads Victoria 3-0
- Portland leads Kelowna 3-0
- and the only one that is even a tiny bit surprising, Medicine Hat leads Saskatoon 3-0
In the entire history of the WHL, only once has a team ever come back from down 3-0 to win a series. That was 1996 when Spokane accomplished the near-impossible feat against Portland.
In other words, the overwhelming evidence of history suggests that Everett, Victoria, Kelowna, and Saskatoon are definitely going to lose those series.
The Edmonton/Kootenay series has only played two games, but Edmonton has won both so with a win in game three tonight in Cranbrook, the Oil Kings could make it five out of eight series which opened 3-0.
Brandon is also up 3-1 on the Hitmen after four games, so if the Hitmen can't rally with three straight wins, that series will also be over soon. (As an aside, does anyone else think the Hitmen might now be regretting their decision to use the 2-3-2 format in this series? I mean, after playing hard right to the end of the season to get 3rd place and home ice advantage, they promptly chose the series option which gave away home ice advantage to the #6 seed in the event of a five game series)
Only the Moose Jaw/Regina and Vancouver/Spokane series (both at 2-1) are still promising any kind of tight battle at this point - and that could change in a hurry for both if Moose Jaw and Vancouver were to win the game 4's and take 3-1 leads.
Most un-dramatic first round ever?
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Injuries and suspensions
The WHL head office handed out a whopping six suspensions yesterday for incidents that happened over the weekend's series-opening games. Combined with a couple of injuries to key players also incurred over the weekend, more than a few series have been impacted heading into games 3 & 4 over the next couple days.
First, the injuries. Spokane star defenceman Brendan Kichton suffered a broken jaw in the Chiefs' game 1 loss in Vancouver, and today the team confirmed the worst: Kichton is done for the season. As a 19 year old likely to turn pro next year, his WHL career is over. This is a significant blow to the Chiefs, seeing as how Kichton was only the West nominee for the WHL's Defenceman Of The Year award.
Can the Chiefs dig themselves out of a 2-0 hole without the services of perhaps their best player?
Second injury, the Tri-City Americans have lost 19 year old defenceman Drydn Dow for the rest of the season as well due to a hit from behind by Everett's Manraj Hayer. Dow suffered a broken arm on the play and will not play again this year. While not the same as Spokane losing Kichton, it's still a blow to the Americans to lose one of their top four defencemen, and so early in the playoffs too. The Americans should still make short work of the Silvertips even without Dow, but will his absence be felt later in the playoffs?
The injury bug has also hit the Calgary Hitmen hard, as they are missing their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers - forwards Victor Rask and Cody Sylvester. Both suffered undisclosed injuries in the regular season finale and have not played in any of the three games of the Calgary-Brandon series so far. Calgary trails the series 2-1 and have managed only 7 goals combined in the three games without the two stars. Both are listed as day-to-day; the Hitmen could use them back ASAP as they try to get back into this series.
To the suspensions now;
Everett had two players suspended yesterday - Manraj Hayer got an indeterminate suspension for the Dow cheap shot mentioned above. I suspect the league may have been waiting to see how badly Dow was hurt before finalizing the suspension, so we may get some clarification on Hayer soon. I'm thinking he will get 3-5 games, which should be enough to keep him out for the rest of this season and perhaps the first game or two of next year.
Everett's Ryan Harrison also received a one game suspension for an interference major on Tri-City forward Jesse Mychan in game two. Losing Harrison - who was Everett's 2nd leading scorer and one of only two plus players on the team - for the critical game three will hurt the Tips' chances of avoiding the 3-0 hole of death.
Kamloops has had Western Conference 2nd All Star team defenceman Austin Madaisky suspended for two games for a hit to the head of Victoria forward Zane Jones in game two of that series. Kamloops should still be able to win this series even without Madaisky for games 3 & 4 but it will be slightly more difficult now without their best defenceman.
Kelowna has lost leading goalscorer Brett Bulmer for an indeterminate amount of time as well after a kneeing major on Portland captain William Wrenn in game two on Saturday. It was the culmination of a rather reckless game for Bulmer, who racked up three kneeing penalties in all in just that game. As a result, Bulmer may now finish his WHL career on the suspended list - I'm thinking he gets at least two games, maybe more if (A) Kelowna actually wins any games in the series and (B) Wrenn is injured and unable to play in game 3 or longer. It seems likely that Bulmer has seen the last of the inside of a Rockets jersey though, and losing him will make the already difficult task the Rockets had of beating Portland even more impossible.
And lastly, Moose Jaw forward Cody Beach has been suspended for one game for an allegedly tasteless comment directed at the Regina Pats bench during game two of that series. Nobody is telling the public exactly what Beach said, but it must have been way across the line of what is acceptable (and must have been overheard by an official or two) if he's getting suspended for it.
There you have it....suspensions and injuries galore so far, many involving key players on their teams. It's been an unusual start to the playoffs for sure.
First, the injuries. Spokane star defenceman Brendan Kichton suffered a broken jaw in the Chiefs' game 1 loss in Vancouver, and today the team confirmed the worst: Kichton is done for the season. As a 19 year old likely to turn pro next year, his WHL career is over. This is a significant blow to the Chiefs, seeing as how Kichton was only the West nominee for the WHL's Defenceman Of The Year award.
Can the Chiefs dig themselves out of a 2-0 hole without the services of perhaps their best player?
Second injury, the Tri-City Americans have lost 19 year old defenceman Drydn Dow for the rest of the season as well due to a hit from behind by Everett's Manraj Hayer. Dow suffered a broken arm on the play and will not play again this year. While not the same as Spokane losing Kichton, it's still a blow to the Americans to lose one of their top four defencemen, and so early in the playoffs too. The Americans should still make short work of the Silvertips even without Dow, but will his absence be felt later in the playoffs?
The injury bug has also hit the Calgary Hitmen hard, as they are missing their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers - forwards Victor Rask and Cody Sylvester. Both suffered undisclosed injuries in the regular season finale and have not played in any of the three games of the Calgary-Brandon series so far. Calgary trails the series 2-1 and have managed only 7 goals combined in the three games without the two stars. Both are listed as day-to-day; the Hitmen could use them back ASAP as they try to get back into this series.
To the suspensions now;
Everett had two players suspended yesterday - Manraj Hayer got an indeterminate suspension for the Dow cheap shot mentioned above. I suspect the league may have been waiting to see how badly Dow was hurt before finalizing the suspension, so we may get some clarification on Hayer soon. I'm thinking he will get 3-5 games, which should be enough to keep him out for the rest of this season and perhaps the first game or two of next year.
Everett's Ryan Harrison also received a one game suspension for an interference major on Tri-City forward Jesse Mychan in game two. Losing Harrison - who was Everett's 2nd leading scorer and one of only two plus players on the team - for the critical game three will hurt the Tips' chances of avoiding the 3-0 hole of death.
Kamloops has had Western Conference 2nd All Star team defenceman Austin Madaisky suspended for two games for a hit to the head of Victoria forward Zane Jones in game two of that series. Kamloops should still be able to win this series even without Madaisky for games 3 & 4 but it will be slightly more difficult now without their best defenceman.
Kelowna has lost leading goalscorer Brett Bulmer for an indeterminate amount of time as well after a kneeing major on Portland captain William Wrenn in game two on Saturday. It was the culmination of a rather reckless game for Bulmer, who racked up three kneeing penalties in all in just that game. As a result, Bulmer may now finish his WHL career on the suspended list - I'm thinking he gets at least two games, maybe more if (A) Kelowna actually wins any games in the series and (B) Wrenn is injured and unable to play in game 3 or longer. It seems likely that Bulmer has seen the last of the inside of a Rockets jersey though, and losing him will make the already difficult task the Rockets had of beating Portland even more impossible.
And lastly, Moose Jaw forward Cody Beach has been suspended for one game for an allegedly tasteless comment directed at the Regina Pats bench during game two of that series. Nobody is telling the public exactly what Beach said, but it must have been way across the line of what is acceptable (and must have been overheard by an official or two) if he's getting suspended for it.
There you have it....suspensions and injuries galore so far, many involving key players on their teams. It's been an unusual start to the playoffs for sure.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
First round predictions
First round of the WHL playoffs kicks off tonight in Calgary. So, prediction time:
Eastern Conference:
#1 Edmonton vs #8 Kootenay:
My pick: Edmonton in 5
Kootenay is the defending champs but really, there's not much reason to like their chances in this series. Edmonton was the highest-scoring team in the conference and also the best-defending team. Edmonton has won 11 straight heading into the playoffs while the Ice have been struggling for a while, slowing dropping down the standings into 8th. Edmonton swept the head-to-head meetings this year and only two teams in the entire league were more dominant at home than the Oil Kings' .833. All put together, the Ice have a tall, tall task if they're going to win this series. I think the Ice may have the best goaltender in the series so Lieuwen might steal a game, but he's not going to steal this series for them.
#2 Moose Jaw vs #7 Regina:
My pick: Moose Jaw in 6
One of the WHL's great rivalries in the first round, terrific to see this matchup. This should be a good, close series with lots of emotion, as befits a couple of rivals. The teams split the season series at 4-4, with each team winning two games in overtime; Regina won four of the last five meetings. The two teams are also fairly evenly matched in most statistical categories. All in all, this series has the potential of being one of the most interesting of the entire first round. Moose Jaw's ace in the hole though, at least IMO, is that they have home ice advantage and no other team in the entire league was as good at home this year as the Warriors were.
#3 Calgary vs #6 Brandon:
My pick: Calgary in 7
This is another series that promises some close, entertaining games. While not divisional rivals, the Hitmen and Wheat Kings have met in 5 of the last 8 playoffs now as well as at the 2010 Memorial Cup. They're as familiar with each other as you can get without being 45 minutes apart like Regina and Moose Jaw. The two teams also match up well statistically this year; they both scored the exact same number of goals, although the Hitmen allowed 0.5 goals per game fewer. Calgary won the season series 3-1. In the end I have to go with Calgary; they have home ice (while Brandon doesn't even have their home building) and the Hitmen have been one of the best teams in the entire league since the trade deadline. But it'll be close....so very close.
#4 Medicine Hat vs #5 Saskatoon:
My pick: Medicine Hat in 6
This is the third of the four Eastern series which promises to be close. For starters, both teams feature top-end goaltending - there may not be another series which has two better goaltenders going head to head. Both goalies have the ability to steal the series for their teams, even if the rest of the team gets outplayed. Saskatoon won the season series 3-1, although two of the wins were in extra time. Numbers-wise, Medicine Hat scored 13 less goals than the Blades, but also allowed 41 less. Medicine Hat is an older and more playoff-experienced team. I do worry a bit about Medicine Hat being a little bit of a two-trick pony offensively, they really have nobody who scores goals beyond Etem and Shinkaruk. But, overall I just like the Tigers in this one....could go seven and could go either way though, wouldn't surprise me at all.
Western Conference:
#1 Tri-City vs #8 Everett:
My pick: Tri-City in 4
Do we need to go into the reasons for this one? Oh, why not. Tri-City was #2 overall. Everett made the playoffs when another team lost on the last day of the season. Tri-City was the league's best defensive team. Everett was one of the league's worst offensive teams. Actually, let's just stop there. Everett might, MIGHT win a game, though I'm picking that they won't. If they actually won the series? It would probably be the biggest upset in WHL playoff history.
#2 Kamloops vs #7 Victoria:
My pick: Kamloops in 4
As with the Tri-City series, this is simply a mismatch. Victoria was far and away the worst defensive team in the WHL and that's not a good thing when you're facing one of the best offences. Kamloops won seven of their eight meetings this year (averaging 5 goals per game) and I don't expect much to change.
#3 Portland vs #6 Kelowna:
My pick: Portland in 5
This is a third mismatch, even though the underdog is leagues better than the first two underdogs. Kelowna isn't a bad club, Portland is just a deep, stacked team with offence from every line and one of the most playoff-experienced teams in the league as well after a run to the Final last year. Portland swept the season series 4-0. They're also nigh-unbeatable at home which is always bad news for an opponent who lacks home ice advantage. I'm going to give the Rockets a game at home, but overall a Rockets win in this series would almost be more shocking than a Silvertips win in the Tri-City series.
#4 Vancouver vs #5 Spokane:
My pick: Spokane in 6
I like Vancouver and I hate to ever bet against a Don Hay team but the Giants are a banged-up team right now, using affiliates and callups everywhere to replaced injured regulars. Statistically the two teams match up well, their GF & GA numbers are close enough (Spokane scored 2 more and allowed 9 less); Vancouver won both games of the season series, but both were by one goal and one was in a shootout. At least on paper there's not a lot to tell these teams apart. The injuries are just kind of the deciding factor here, I think.
Eastern Conference:
#1 Edmonton vs #8 Kootenay:
My pick: Edmonton in 5
Kootenay is the defending champs but really, there's not much reason to like their chances in this series. Edmonton was the highest-scoring team in the conference and also the best-defending team. Edmonton has won 11 straight heading into the playoffs while the Ice have been struggling for a while, slowing dropping down the standings into 8th. Edmonton swept the head-to-head meetings this year and only two teams in the entire league were more dominant at home than the Oil Kings' .833. All put together, the Ice have a tall, tall task if they're going to win this series. I think the Ice may have the best goaltender in the series so Lieuwen might steal a game, but he's not going to steal this series for them.
#2 Moose Jaw vs #7 Regina:
My pick: Moose Jaw in 6
One of the WHL's great rivalries in the first round, terrific to see this matchup. This should be a good, close series with lots of emotion, as befits a couple of rivals. The teams split the season series at 4-4, with each team winning two games in overtime; Regina won four of the last five meetings. The two teams are also fairly evenly matched in most statistical categories. All in all, this series has the potential of being one of the most interesting of the entire first round. Moose Jaw's ace in the hole though, at least IMO, is that they have home ice advantage and no other team in the entire league was as good at home this year as the Warriors were.
#3 Calgary vs #6 Brandon:
My pick: Calgary in 7
This is another series that promises some close, entertaining games. While not divisional rivals, the Hitmen and Wheat Kings have met in 5 of the last 8 playoffs now as well as at the 2010 Memorial Cup. They're as familiar with each other as you can get without being 45 minutes apart like Regina and Moose Jaw. The two teams also match up well statistically this year; they both scored the exact same number of goals, although the Hitmen allowed 0.5 goals per game fewer. Calgary won the season series 3-1. In the end I have to go with Calgary; they have home ice (while Brandon doesn't even have their home building) and the Hitmen have been one of the best teams in the entire league since the trade deadline. But it'll be close....so very close.
#4 Medicine Hat vs #5 Saskatoon:
My pick: Medicine Hat in 6
This is the third of the four Eastern series which promises to be close. For starters, both teams feature top-end goaltending - there may not be another series which has two better goaltenders going head to head. Both goalies have the ability to steal the series for their teams, even if the rest of the team gets outplayed. Saskatoon won the season series 3-1, although two of the wins were in extra time. Numbers-wise, Medicine Hat scored 13 less goals than the Blades, but also allowed 41 less. Medicine Hat is an older and more playoff-experienced team. I do worry a bit about Medicine Hat being a little bit of a two-trick pony offensively, they really have nobody who scores goals beyond Etem and Shinkaruk. But, overall I just like the Tigers in this one....could go seven and could go either way though, wouldn't surprise me at all.
Western Conference:
#1 Tri-City vs #8 Everett:
My pick: Tri-City in 4
Do we need to go into the reasons for this one? Oh, why not. Tri-City was #2 overall. Everett made the playoffs when another team lost on the last day of the season. Tri-City was the league's best defensive team. Everett was one of the league's worst offensive teams. Actually, let's just stop there. Everett might, MIGHT win a game, though I'm picking that they won't. If they actually won the series? It would probably be the biggest upset in WHL playoff history.
#2 Kamloops vs #7 Victoria:
My pick: Kamloops in 4
As with the Tri-City series, this is simply a mismatch. Victoria was far and away the worst defensive team in the WHL and that's not a good thing when you're facing one of the best offences. Kamloops won seven of their eight meetings this year (averaging 5 goals per game) and I don't expect much to change.
#3 Portland vs #6 Kelowna:
My pick: Portland in 5
This is a third mismatch, even though the underdog is leagues better than the first two underdogs. Kelowna isn't a bad club, Portland is just a deep, stacked team with offence from every line and one of the most playoff-experienced teams in the league as well after a run to the Final last year. Portland swept the season series 4-0. They're also nigh-unbeatable at home which is always bad news for an opponent who lacks home ice advantage. I'm going to give the Rockets a game at home, but overall a Rockets win in this series would almost be more shocking than a Silvertips win in the Tri-City series.
#4 Vancouver vs #5 Spokane:
My pick: Spokane in 6
I like Vancouver and I hate to ever bet against a Don Hay team but the Giants are a banged-up team right now, using affiliates and callups everywhere to replaced injured regulars. Statistically the two teams match up well, their GF & GA numbers are close enough (Spokane scored 2 more and allowed 9 less); Vancouver won both games of the season series, but both were by one goal and one was in a shootout. At least on paper there's not a lot to tell these teams apart. The injuries are just kind of the deciding factor here, I think.
Playoff experience
I was going to do a statistical breakdown of playoff experience by team this morning, but Kootenay Ice PBP guy Jeff Hollick already beat me to it on his blog. Check it out. Nice work, Jeff.
So instead, I'll focus on making my first-round picks, since the action starts tonight in the Calgary-Brandon series. That will be up before game time, hopefully a lot sooner.
So instead, I'll focus on making my first-round picks, since the action starts tonight in the Calgary-Brandon series. That will be up before game time, hopefully a lot sooner.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Scoring depth 2011-12
Some more stat stuff as we head into the playoffs: which teams have the most scoring depth and which teams rely on just a few players?
I think most fans would agree that more depth is better, especially if you're going on a long playoff push. As injuries and fatigue can take their toll on players, it's nice to be able to have guys who can take over the scoring load if somebody else falters. Plus if you can roll out two or even three lines which are serious threats to score, you make it difficult for opponents to focus their best defensive players on shutting down just one or two guys.
On the other hand, the really high end guys, the really big scorers, can be a heck of a handful to stop even when you're focusing completely on doing that. Those guys may only need to get open a couple times a game or get a couple chances a game to really hurt you - and that's something that a plethora of 20 goal scorers can't always make up for.
So, here's a chart showing the 16 playoff teams and breaking down how many players on each team scored 50+, 40+, 30+, 20+, and 10+ goals.
Looking at the numbers, one of the first teams I notice is Portland. The Winterhawks have something no other team has - lots of high scoring guys AND lots of depth. 14 players on that team scored at least 10 goals this year. Think about that - they dress 18 skaters and all but 4 of them are in double digits. Not only that, but three of them topped 40 goals and one of those was over 50.
A couple other U.S. division teams provide some contrast - Spokane had 13 guys into double digits in goals, but only one player broken the 30 goal mark. So they have lots of players who know their way around the net, but only one who can be counted on to score more than every three or four games.
Then there's Tri-City - they had two guys who scored 50 or more. They only have two other players who scored more than 20 though, so you could make a case that if an opponent could shut down Shinnimin and Hughesman, then the Americans are in some pretty big trouble. (Whereas if an opponent could shut down Rattie and Ross on the Winterhawks, the Hawks might still do OK). Something for Tri-City to worry about?
In the East, Medicine Hat is another obvious example of a team with a couple really big guys and then not much depth after that. After Etem's 61 and Shinkaruk's 49, only two other guys on the team broke the 20 goal barrier. Regina is another team with very thin depth - only one player exceeded 30 goals and only two others broke 20. If Moose Jaw puts the wraps on Jordan Weal, who's going to score for the Pats?
Edmonton (seven players with 20 goals or more) and Calgary (six with 20+ and 11 guys in double digits) are a couple examples of Eastern teams with some depth, even without many big gunners (although Edmonton did have one player over 40 goals).
Something to think about anywyay. But don't read too much into this - after all, Victoria had six players who scored 20 goals or more (only Edmonton had more) and still the Royals barely squeaked into the playoffs and won't be around long once the puck drops either.....
I think most fans would agree that more depth is better, especially if you're going on a long playoff push. As injuries and fatigue can take their toll on players, it's nice to be able to have guys who can take over the scoring load if somebody else falters. Plus if you can roll out two or even three lines which are serious threats to score, you make it difficult for opponents to focus their best defensive players on shutting down just one or two guys.
On the other hand, the really high end guys, the really big scorers, can be a heck of a handful to stop even when you're focusing completely on doing that. Those guys may only need to get open a couple times a game or get a couple chances a game to really hurt you - and that's something that a plethora of 20 goal scorers can't always make up for.
So, here's a chart showing the 16 playoff teams and breaking down how many players on each team scored 50+, 40+, 30+, 20+, and 10+ goals.
| 10+ | 20+ | 30+ | 40+ | 50+ | |
| Brandon | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Calgary | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Edmonton | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Everett | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamloops | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Kelowna | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kootenay | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Medicine Hat | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Moose Jaw | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Portland | 14 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Regina | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Saskatoon | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Spokane | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tri-City | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Vancouver | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Victoria | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Looking at the numbers, one of the first teams I notice is Portland. The Winterhawks have something no other team has - lots of high scoring guys AND lots of depth. 14 players on that team scored at least 10 goals this year. Think about that - they dress 18 skaters and all but 4 of them are in double digits. Not only that, but three of them topped 40 goals and one of those was over 50.
A couple other U.S. division teams provide some contrast - Spokane had 13 guys into double digits in goals, but only one player broken the 30 goal mark. So they have lots of players who know their way around the net, but only one who can be counted on to score more than every three or four games.
Then there's Tri-City - they had two guys who scored 50 or more. They only have two other players who scored more than 20 though, so you could make a case that if an opponent could shut down Shinnimin and Hughesman, then the Americans are in some pretty big trouble. (Whereas if an opponent could shut down Rattie and Ross on the Winterhawks, the Hawks might still do OK). Something for Tri-City to worry about?
In the East, Medicine Hat is another obvious example of a team with a couple really big guys and then not much depth after that. After Etem's 61 and Shinkaruk's 49, only two other guys on the team broke the 20 goal barrier. Regina is another team with very thin depth - only one player exceeded 30 goals and only two others broke 20. If Moose Jaw puts the wraps on Jordan Weal, who's going to score for the Pats?
Edmonton (seven players with 20 goals or more) and Calgary (six with 20+ and 11 guys in double digits) are a couple examples of Eastern teams with some depth, even without many big gunners (although Edmonton did have one player over 40 goals).
Something to think about anywyay. But don't read too much into this - after all, Victoria had six players who scored 20 goals or more (only Edmonton had more) and still the Royals barely squeaked into the playoffs and won't be around long once the puck drops either.....
Seattle wins draft lottery
The Seattle Thunderbirds, who had a 19.1% chance of winning the draft lottery, pulled it off this morning. As a result, the Thunderbirds will have the #1 overall pick in the 2012 WHL bantam draft.
Prince Albert will drop from #1 down to #2, while Prince George drops from #2 down to #3. All other picks remain unchanged.
So....Seattle gets the chance to pick Mathew Barzal. Will he play for them? If so, what a great opportunity for that franchise to turn itself around after some tough years lately.
The order of selection in the first round:
1. Seattle
2. Prince Albert
3. Prince George
4. Lethbridge
5. Swift Current
6. Red Deer
7. Everett
8. Victoria
9. Kelowna
10. Kootenay
11. Prince George (from Regina in Marincin/Blidstrand deal, Jan 10/12)
12. Brandon
13. Victoria (from Brandon in Kevin Sundher deal, Jan 9/12; Brandon had acquired from Saskatoon in Brayden Schenn deal, Jan 10/11)
14. Spokane
15. Vancouver
16. Medicine Hat
17. Calgary
18. Lethbridge (from Moose Jaw in Cam Braes deal, Jan 9/12)
19. Kamloops
20. Seattle (from Portland in Marcel Noebels deal, Jan 10/12)
21. Tri-City
22. Edmonton
Prince Albert will drop from #1 down to #2, while Prince George drops from #2 down to #3. All other picks remain unchanged.
So....Seattle gets the chance to pick Mathew Barzal. Will he play for them? If so, what a great opportunity for that franchise to turn itself around after some tough years lately.
The order of selection in the first round:
1. Seattle
2. Prince Albert
3. Prince George
4. Lethbridge
5. Swift Current
6. Red Deer
7. Everett
8. Victoria
9. Kelowna
10. Kootenay
11. Prince George (from Regina in Marincin/Blidstrand deal, Jan 10/12)
12. Brandon
13. Victoria (from Brandon in Kevin Sundher deal, Jan 9/12; Brandon had acquired from Saskatoon in Brayden Schenn deal, Jan 10/11)
14. Spokane
15. Vancouver
16. Medicine Hat
17. Calgary
18. Lethbridge (from Moose Jaw in Cam Braes deal, Jan 9/12)
19. Kamloops
20. Seattle (from Portland in Marcel Noebels deal, Jan 10/12)
21. Tri-City
22. Edmonton
Monday, March 19, 2012
Samuelsson suspended again
Edmonton will have to play the first two games of their series with the Kootenay Ice without the services of one of their better forwards. Henrik Samuelsson has been suspended for two games for a clipping major he incurred on Saturday night against Red Deer when he submarined Rebels captain Adam Kambeitz. You can see a video of the hit here.
Samuelsson being suspended for two playoff games probably means he might have gotten double or triple that if this were still the regular season. In just a half season in the WHL, this is Samuelsson's third suspension already. If he doesn't clean up his act, these suspensions are going to get worse and worse; he's 17 years old and already considered a "repeat offender" in the eyes of the league.
I really hate to make a comparison to his dad's reputation since everyone should be entitled to forge their own way without that kind of baggage. But Henrik is certainly showing signs of being a chip off the old blockhead in the cheap shot department. His three suspensions are for charging, kneeing, and now clipping - and those of us over 30 will certainly remember his dad had a thing for low hits and knee-on-knee hits too. Ask Cam Neely about that.
He's a good young player (23 points in 28 games attests to that) who is a power forward style player and needs to be using his body. He just needs to clean up the hits or he'll be dogged by ever-worsening suspension trouble.
Samuelsson being suspended for two playoff games probably means he might have gotten double or triple that if this were still the regular season. In just a half season in the WHL, this is Samuelsson's third suspension already. If he doesn't clean up his act, these suspensions are going to get worse and worse; he's 17 years old and already considered a "repeat offender" in the eyes of the league.
I really hate to make a comparison to his dad's reputation since everyone should be entitled to forge their own way without that kind of baggage. But Henrik is certainly showing signs of being a chip off the old blockhead in the cheap shot department. His three suspensions are for charging, kneeing, and now clipping - and those of us over 30 will certainly remember his dad had a thing for low hits and knee-on-knee hits too. Ask Cam Neely about that.
He's a good young player (23 points in 28 games attests to that) who is a power forward style player and needs to be using his body. He just needs to clean up the hits or he'll be dogged by ever-worsening suspension trouble.
First half vs second half
With the regular season over, it seems like a good time to update something I first looked at a few weeks after the trade deadline: which teams did better and which did worse after the deadline?
In a way, this is kind of a "tale of two halves" sort of thing - teams that started well (first half) and teams that finished well (second half). You could say that teams that showed improvement in the second half have recently been outperforming their current playoff seed, while teams that dropped in the second half may be underperforming their playoff seed.
Sorted by second half / post-deadline performance, here's the numbers:
Edmonton Oil Kings: 30gp-23-5-2-0 (0.800). Before deadline: 0.702
Portland Winterhawks: 31gp-23-7-1-0 (0.758). Before deadline: 0.671
Moose Jaw Warriors: 30gp-20-7-2-1 (0.717). Before deadline: 0.655
Calgary Hitmen: 31gp-22-9-0-0 (0.710). Before deadline: 0.573
Medicine Hat Tigers: 29gp-18-9-0-2 (0.655). Before deadline: 0.605
Kamloops Blazers: 31gp-19-10-1-1 (0.645). Before deadline: 0.720
Tri-City Americans: 33gp-18-11-2-2 (0.606). Before deadline: 0.821
Brandon Wheat Kings: 31gp-17-11-0-3 (0.597). Before deadline: 0.561
Spokane Chiefs: 34gp-18-12-3-1 (0.588). Before deadline: 0.592
Saskatoon Blades: 31gp-17-12-1-1 (0.581). Before deadline: 0.573
Regina Pats: 29gp-14-11-3-1 (0.552). Before deadline: 0.581
Vancouver Giants: 31gp-15-12-1-3 (0.548). Before deadline: 0.634
Kelowna Rockets: 31gp-14-12-2-3 (0.532). Before deadline: 0.476
Everett Silvertips: 32gp-15-15-1-1 (0.500). Before deadline: 0.275
Kootenay Ice: 31gp-12-13-5-1 (0.484). Before deadline: 0.634
Red Deer Rebels: 32gp-14-16-0-2 (0.469). Before deadline: 0.500
Lethbridge Hurricanes: 28gp-13-15-0-0 (0.464). Before deadline: 0.375
Swift Current Broncos: 30gp-11-16-0-3 (0.417). Before deadline: 0.440
Victoria Royals: 30gp-11-17-1-1 (0.400). Before deadline: 0.369
Prince George Cougars: 32gp-11-21-0-0 (0.344). Before deadline: 0.350
Seattle Thunderbirds: 34gp-9-24-1-0 (0.279). Before deadline: 0.434
Prince Albert Raiders: 29gp-6-20-2-1 (0.259). Before deadline: 0.384
In a way, this is kind of a "tale of two halves" sort of thing - teams that started well (first half) and teams that finished well (second half). You could say that teams that showed improvement in the second half have recently been outperforming their current playoff seed, while teams that dropped in the second half may be underperforming their playoff seed.
Sorted by second half / post-deadline performance, here's the numbers:
Edmonton Oil Kings: 30gp-23-5-2-0 (0.800). Before deadline: 0.702
Portland Winterhawks: 31gp-23-7-1-0 (0.758). Before deadline: 0.671
Moose Jaw Warriors: 30gp-20-7-2-1 (0.717). Before deadline: 0.655
Calgary Hitmen: 31gp-22-9-0-0 (0.710). Before deadline: 0.573
Medicine Hat Tigers: 29gp-18-9-0-2 (0.655). Before deadline: 0.605
Kamloops Blazers: 31gp-19-10-1-1 (0.645). Before deadline: 0.720
Tri-City Americans: 33gp-18-11-2-2 (0.606). Before deadline: 0.821
Brandon Wheat Kings: 31gp-17-11-0-3 (0.597). Before deadline: 0.561
Spokane Chiefs: 34gp-18-12-3-1 (0.588). Before deadline: 0.592
Saskatoon Blades: 31gp-17-12-1-1 (0.581). Before deadline: 0.573
Regina Pats: 29gp-14-11-3-1 (0.552). Before deadline: 0.581
Vancouver Giants: 31gp-15-12-1-3 (0.548). Before deadline: 0.634
Kelowna Rockets: 31gp-14-12-2-3 (0.532). Before deadline: 0.476
Everett Silvertips: 32gp-15-15-1-1 (0.500). Before deadline: 0.275
Kootenay Ice: 31gp-12-13-5-1 (0.484). Before deadline: 0.634
Red Deer Rebels: 32gp-14-16-0-2 (0.469). Before deadline: 0.500
Lethbridge Hurricanes: 28gp-13-15-0-0 (0.464). Before deadline: 0.375
Swift Current Broncos: 30gp-11-16-0-3 (0.417). Before deadline: 0.440
Victoria Royals: 30gp-11-17-1-1 (0.400). Before deadline: 0.369
Prince George Cougars: 32gp-11-21-0-0 (0.344). Before deadline: 0.350
Seattle Thunderbirds: 34gp-9-24-1-0 (0.279). Before deadline: 0.434
Prince Albert Raiders: 29gp-6-20-2-1 (0.259). Before deadline: 0.384
A few things I noticed:
Look at Kootenay - of all the playoff teams, only Victoria had a worse 2nd half of the season than the Ice did. The Ice's first round opponent, Edmonton, was the best team in the league in the 2nd half. Does that change anyone's mind about the likelihood of Kootenay giving Edmonton any problems in the playoffs?
The team with the biggest improvement from first half to second? Everett, who went from .275 to .500 (an improvement of .225). The team with the biggest drop-off from first to second? Tri-City, who went from .821 to .606 (a drop of .215). Guess which two teams meet in the first round? Does that change anyone's mind about the possibility of an upset here?
(No, I didn't really think that one would.)
Calgary was the 2nd-biggest improver, at .573 up to .710. Portland, Moose Jaw, and Kelowna also showed good improvements from first half to second half. Meanwhile, other teams which were noticeably poorer in the second half of the season include Vancouver, Kamloops, and Regina. Cause for concern for those teams heading into the playoffs?
Shaw/lottery
Couple notes this morning....
The WHL will hold its' bantam draft lottery this week (I suspect Wednesday) to determine the order of the top six picks in the 2012 Bantam Draft which goes on May 3. The six non-playoff teams (in order: Prince Albert, Prince George, Seattle, Lethbridge, Swift Current, and Red Deer) will each get a number of bingo balls placed into a machine. Prince Albert gets 6 balls, Prince George gets 5, and so on down to Red Deer, who get 1. One ball will be drawn and that team gets to move up two spots in the draft order. So therefore, only the bottom three teams (Prince Albert, Prince George, and Seattle) have a chance at ending up with the #1 overall pick. The best that Lethbridge (at #4) could do would be to move up to #2. Etc, etc.
So the chance of winning the first overall pick, by team, are:
Prince Albert: 57.1%
Prince George: 23.8%
Seattle: 19.1%
The prize for winning the lottery? As mentioned the other day, Burnaby Winter Club forward Mathew Barzal. According to almost everyone you talk to, he is the best player in the draft.
Secondly - now that all the playoff matchups are set for the first round, it's time to engage in every WHL fan's (or the Canadian ones anyway) favorite playoff pastime: speculating on which series Shaw TV will carry!
The question that needs to be answered first, before we can take a stab at which series they might show, is what is most important to Shaw? Is it purely ratings, or do they genuinely care about giving every team a chance to be shown?
If ratings are #1, then in all likelihood the first round series will be either Edmonton vs Kootenay, or Calgary vs Brandon. Calgary and Edmonton are Shaw's second and third biggest markets in the league. Vancouver is the biggest, but Vancouver is playing a U.S. based team (Spokane) which would contribute very few viewers north of the border.
If they're interested in showing everyone and in giving both conferences fair treatment, then it's possible they will start with the Kamloops-Victoria series in the West. That's the only all-Canadian matchup in the West and it's quite likely that every West series in the 2nd and 3rd rounds will involve a U.S. team as well, which is probably somewhat less desirable to Shaw. So if they're going to show anything in the West, the Blazers and Royals in the first round might be their best bet.
The problem there is that it could be a short series. Most people will probably predict Kamloops to win that series in four or five games, meaning Shaw will miss out on the drama (and potentially higher ratings) of a game 6 or game 7 in some of the other series.
Or maybe Shaw just wants to pick the best, most entertaining series possible. In that case, you can probably exclude the Tri-City, Kamloops, and Portland series in the West (since Everett, Victoria, and Kelowna are probably going to get whacked in short order by those three powerhouse teams) but any of the other five series promises to be closer and more entertaining.
Vancouver and Spokane were separated by one point in the standings. Medicine Hat and Saskatoon offers a potential great goaltenders battle between Russian World Junior hero Andrey Makarov and the man many Canadians feel SHOULD have been the Canadian World Junior goalie, Tyler Bunz. Calgary and Brandon are meeting in the playoffs for the 5th time in the last 8 years and they've had some great series in that time (plus all games will be played in NHL arenas - from a technical production point of view, Shaw's crews might love that). Regina and Moose Jaw are hated rivals - if you want emotion and possible drama (and blood), this might be the series to watch. And while Edmonton appears to have a big edge on Kootenay, the Ice do boast a goaltender capable of stealing a series in Nathan Lieuwen. If he gives the Oil Kings fits, who'd want to miss that?
And just as a note to U.S. readers because I know my dismissal of their games as options is going to anger some: I personally have no issue with Shaw showing American based teams. I would watch. In fact, if it's Portland vs Tri-Cities in the West Final, that's the series I want to see in the third round. It's just the fact that Shaw has only Canadian subscribers and so they are going to have a big bias towards any series involving two Canadian teams.
The WHL will hold its' bantam draft lottery this week (I suspect Wednesday) to determine the order of the top six picks in the 2012 Bantam Draft which goes on May 3. The six non-playoff teams (in order: Prince Albert, Prince George, Seattle, Lethbridge, Swift Current, and Red Deer) will each get a number of bingo balls placed into a machine. Prince Albert gets 6 balls, Prince George gets 5, and so on down to Red Deer, who get 1. One ball will be drawn and that team gets to move up two spots in the draft order. So therefore, only the bottom three teams (Prince Albert, Prince George, and Seattle) have a chance at ending up with the #1 overall pick. The best that Lethbridge (at #4) could do would be to move up to #2. Etc, etc.
So the chance of winning the first overall pick, by team, are:
Prince Albert: 57.1%
Prince George: 23.8%
Seattle: 19.1%
The prize for winning the lottery? As mentioned the other day, Burnaby Winter Club forward Mathew Barzal. According to almost everyone you talk to, he is the best player in the draft.
Secondly - now that all the playoff matchups are set for the first round, it's time to engage in every WHL fan's (or the Canadian ones anyway) favorite playoff pastime: speculating on which series Shaw TV will carry!
The question that needs to be answered first, before we can take a stab at which series they might show, is what is most important to Shaw? Is it purely ratings, or do they genuinely care about giving every team a chance to be shown?
If ratings are #1, then in all likelihood the first round series will be either Edmonton vs Kootenay, or Calgary vs Brandon. Calgary and Edmonton are Shaw's second and third biggest markets in the league. Vancouver is the biggest, but Vancouver is playing a U.S. based team (Spokane) which would contribute very few viewers north of the border.
If they're interested in showing everyone and in giving both conferences fair treatment, then it's possible they will start with the Kamloops-Victoria series in the West. That's the only all-Canadian matchup in the West and it's quite likely that every West series in the 2nd and 3rd rounds will involve a U.S. team as well, which is probably somewhat less desirable to Shaw. So if they're going to show anything in the West, the Blazers and Royals in the first round might be their best bet.
The problem there is that it could be a short series. Most people will probably predict Kamloops to win that series in four or five games, meaning Shaw will miss out on the drama (and potentially higher ratings) of a game 6 or game 7 in some of the other series.
Or maybe Shaw just wants to pick the best, most entertaining series possible. In that case, you can probably exclude the Tri-City, Kamloops, and Portland series in the West (since Everett, Victoria, and Kelowna are probably going to get whacked in short order by those three powerhouse teams) but any of the other five series promises to be closer and more entertaining.
Vancouver and Spokane were separated by one point in the standings. Medicine Hat and Saskatoon offers a potential great goaltenders battle between Russian World Junior hero Andrey Makarov and the man many Canadians feel SHOULD have been the Canadian World Junior goalie, Tyler Bunz. Calgary and Brandon are meeting in the playoffs for the 5th time in the last 8 years and they've had some great series in that time (plus all games will be played in NHL arenas - from a technical production point of view, Shaw's crews might love that). Regina and Moose Jaw are hated rivals - if you want emotion and possible drama (and blood), this might be the series to watch. And while Edmonton appears to have a big edge on Kootenay, the Ice do boast a goaltender capable of stealing a series in Nathan Lieuwen. If he gives the Oil Kings fits, who'd want to miss that?
And just as a note to U.S. readers because I know my dismissal of their games as options is going to anger some: I personally have no issue with Shaw showing American based teams. I would watch. In fact, if it's Portland vs Tri-Cities in the West Final, that's the series I want to see in the third round. It's just the fact that Shaw has only Canadian subscribers and so they are going to have a big bias towards any series involving two Canadian teams.
Sunday, March 18, 2012
All but one decided
Only one game left in the regular season and wouldn't you know it, a playoff spot hangs on the outcome of that game. Everything else is decided though:
- Brandon whipped Regina, enabling the Wheat Kings to pass the Pats and claim 6th place in the East. Regina gets 7th.
- Kootenay lost to Calgary for the 2nd straight night, which means the Ice finish 8th. For the Hitmen, the win cemented 3rd place and forced the Tigers to settle for 4th.
- Saskatoon lost but it didn't matter as the Regina & Kootenay losses meant nobody caught them. The Blades stay in 5th place.
- Edmonton's win over Red Deer locked up first overall, so the Oil Kings will have home ice advantage throughout the playoffs.
- in the West, the only game with implications on playoff spots was in Seattle, where the Silvertips scored two late third period goals to beat the Thunderbirds and stay alive. Everett is now holding down 8th place and Seattle must beat Portland tomorrow in the WHL's regular season finale in order to force a one-game playoff in Seattle. A loss for the Birds eliminates them and gives the 8th spot to Everett.
So with 20 of the 22 teams having completed their regular seasons, the eight playoff matchups are as follows:
Eastern Conference:
#8 Kootenay Ice at #1 Edmonton Oil Kings
#7 Regina Pats at #2 Moose Jaw Warriors
#6 Brandon Wheat Kings at #3 Calgary Hitmen
#5 Saskatoon Blades at #4 Medicine Hat Tigers
Western Conference:
#8 Everett Silvertips OR Seattle Thunderbirds at #1 Tri-City Americans
#7 Victoria Royals at #2 Kamloops Blazers
#6 Kelowna Rockets at #3 Portland Winterhawks
#5 Spokane Chiefs at #4 Vancouver Giants
One last note, Prince Albert's loss tonight means they finish last overall and thus will have the best (57%) chance of winning the #1 overall bantam draft pick when the league holds its' draft lottery this week. At stake is the right to pick forward Mathew Barzal, the heavy favourite to go #1 and a player who has drawn comparisons to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
- Brandon whipped Regina, enabling the Wheat Kings to pass the Pats and claim 6th place in the East. Regina gets 7th.
- Kootenay lost to Calgary for the 2nd straight night, which means the Ice finish 8th. For the Hitmen, the win cemented 3rd place and forced the Tigers to settle for 4th.
- Saskatoon lost but it didn't matter as the Regina & Kootenay losses meant nobody caught them. The Blades stay in 5th place.
- Edmonton's win over Red Deer locked up first overall, so the Oil Kings will have home ice advantage throughout the playoffs.
- in the West, the only game with implications on playoff spots was in Seattle, where the Silvertips scored two late third period goals to beat the Thunderbirds and stay alive. Everett is now holding down 8th place and Seattle must beat Portland tomorrow in the WHL's regular season finale in order to force a one-game playoff in Seattle. A loss for the Birds eliminates them and gives the 8th spot to Everett.
So with 20 of the 22 teams having completed their regular seasons, the eight playoff matchups are as follows:
Eastern Conference:
#8 Kootenay Ice at #1 Edmonton Oil Kings
#7 Regina Pats at #2 Moose Jaw Warriors
#6 Brandon Wheat Kings at #3 Calgary Hitmen
#5 Saskatoon Blades at #4 Medicine Hat Tigers
Western Conference:
#8 Everett Silvertips OR Seattle Thunderbirds at #1 Tri-City Americans
#7 Victoria Royals at #2 Kamloops Blazers
#6 Kelowna Rockets at #3 Portland Winterhawks
#5 Spokane Chiefs at #4 Vancouver Giants
One last note, Prince Albert's loss tonight means they finish last overall and thus will have the best (57%) chance of winning the #1 overall bantam draft pick when the league holds its' draft lottery this week. At stake is the right to pick forward Mathew Barzal, the heavy favourite to go #1 and a player who has drawn comparisons to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Wednesday's games
Six games on the schedule last night and they had some very big implications on the playoff races....
- Moose Jaw beat Brandon in a shootout. The Warriors are going to finish as the #2 seed in the East no matter what so the game meant little to them, but the lost point could hurt the Wheat Kings' chances of moving out of their current 8th place position. Brandon finishes with two games against Regina and now they must win both of those games to have any chance of finishing above 7th place.
- Lethbridge upset Calgary 5-2, which means the Hitmen squandered their game-in-hand on the Tigers. Calgary remains two points back of the Tigers in the race for 3rd place, with both teams having two games remaining. To get 3rd, Calgary now needs to win both their remaining games (both against the Ice) and have the Tigers lose at least one of their remaining two.
- Regina beat Prince Albert, vaulting the Pats over the Blades and Ice and into 5th place in the East.
- Edmonton beat Kootenay in overtime; the win means the Oil Kings are now first overall in the league by one point over Tri-City and three points over Portland, with all three teams having two games left. It definitely looks like Portland is dropping out of the race - if Edmonton wins even one of their remaining two games, Portland cannot catch the Oil Kings.
For Kootenay, the lost point (coupled with Regina's win) means the Ice drop to 7th place now in the big four-team race for 5th through 8th in the East.
- Spokane beat Kamloops 6-4, and with the loss for the Blazers their hopes for #1 in the conference and #1 overall both died. They can no longer catch Tri-City and so the Blazers will be the #2 seed in the first round. Their challenge now is to find a way to finish ahead of Portland (who have a 3 point lead with both teams having 2 games remaining) so that they can retain that #2 seed in the second round.
For the Chiefs, the win moves them into a tie with the Giants for the #4 seed. Giants have more wins and so they retain the #4 spot though. Both teams have two games left.
- Kelowna beat Everett, meaning the Silvertips squandered a chance to move further ahead of Seattle in the race for playoff spots in the West. For Kelowna, it was another meaningless game as they simply wait to play the #3 seed in the first round, whoever that may be.
- Victoria shocked Portland 4-3; for the Winterhawks the loss comes pretty close to killing their chances at #1 overall (see above notes for Edmonton game) and just to get #1 in the West they're now probably going to have to win both their remaining games and hope Tri-City gets 1 point or less from their last two games. So it looks a lot grimmer for the Hawks today....they look like they're ticketed for the #3 spot right now which means they would draw Kamloops in the second round.
For Victoria, obviously the win is huge, huge, huge for their playoff hopes. They move ahead of Everett into the #7 spot with the win and now hold a 3 point lead over Seattle (Prince George can no longer catch the Royals) in the race for the playoff spot. Seattle does have two games in hand on the Royals but the 3 point lead means Seattle has to win both of those games in order to pass Victoria and knock the Royals out.
And even though they didn't play in the game, the Victoria win has some meaning for the Cougars: Prince George can now only tie Everett for the last playoff spot, not claim one outright. So the Cougars are now looking at playing a tiebreaker game as their best possible outcome. To make the playoffs, the Cougars now need to win both their last two games against Kamloops, have Everett lose both their last two games in regulation, and have Seattle beat Everett but lose their other two games in regulation. That would create a three way tie for the last playoff spot. As I understand the league's tiebreaker rules, Everett would be eliminated due to fewest wins, and Prince George and Seattle would play the tiebreaker.
- Moose Jaw beat Brandon in a shootout. The Warriors are going to finish as the #2 seed in the East no matter what so the game meant little to them, but the lost point could hurt the Wheat Kings' chances of moving out of their current 8th place position. Brandon finishes with two games against Regina and now they must win both of those games to have any chance of finishing above 7th place.
- Lethbridge upset Calgary 5-2, which means the Hitmen squandered their game-in-hand on the Tigers. Calgary remains two points back of the Tigers in the race for 3rd place, with both teams having two games remaining. To get 3rd, Calgary now needs to win both their remaining games (both against the Ice) and have the Tigers lose at least one of their remaining two.
- Regina beat Prince Albert, vaulting the Pats over the Blades and Ice and into 5th place in the East.
- Edmonton beat Kootenay in overtime; the win means the Oil Kings are now first overall in the league by one point over Tri-City and three points over Portland, with all three teams having two games left. It definitely looks like Portland is dropping out of the race - if Edmonton wins even one of their remaining two games, Portland cannot catch the Oil Kings.
For Kootenay, the lost point (coupled with Regina's win) means the Ice drop to 7th place now in the big four-team race for 5th through 8th in the East.
- Spokane beat Kamloops 6-4, and with the loss for the Blazers their hopes for #1 in the conference and #1 overall both died. They can no longer catch Tri-City and so the Blazers will be the #2 seed in the first round. Their challenge now is to find a way to finish ahead of Portland (who have a 3 point lead with both teams having 2 games remaining) so that they can retain that #2 seed in the second round.
For the Chiefs, the win moves them into a tie with the Giants for the #4 seed. Giants have more wins and so they retain the #4 spot though. Both teams have two games left.
- Kelowna beat Everett, meaning the Silvertips squandered a chance to move further ahead of Seattle in the race for playoff spots in the West. For Kelowna, it was another meaningless game as they simply wait to play the #3 seed in the first round, whoever that may be.
- Victoria shocked Portland 4-3; for the Winterhawks the loss comes pretty close to killing their chances at #1 overall (see above notes for Edmonton game) and just to get #1 in the West they're now probably going to have to win both their remaining games and hope Tri-City gets 1 point or less from their last two games. So it looks a lot grimmer for the Hawks today....they look like they're ticketed for the #3 spot right now which means they would draw Kamloops in the second round.
For Victoria, obviously the win is huge, huge, huge for their playoff hopes. They move ahead of Everett into the #7 spot with the win and now hold a 3 point lead over Seattle (Prince George can no longer catch the Royals) in the race for the playoff spot. Seattle does have two games in hand on the Royals but the 3 point lead means Seattle has to win both of those games in order to pass Victoria and knock the Royals out.
And even though they didn't play in the game, the Victoria win has some meaning for the Cougars: Prince George can now only tie Everett for the last playoff spot, not claim one outright. So the Cougars are now looking at playing a tiebreaker game as their best possible outcome. To make the playoffs, the Cougars now need to win both their last two games against Kamloops, have Everett lose both their last two games in regulation, and have Seattle beat Everett but lose their other two games in regulation. That would create a three way tie for the last playoff spot. As I understand the league's tiebreaker rules, Everett would be eliminated due to fewest wins, and Prince George and Seattle would play the tiebreaker.
Playoff races
Updated for the final week of the season....
Three more days of games remaining on the WHL regular season schedule this year. Looking at the standings, I see six distinct playoff "races" in progress. Here's a little look at all six:
(Last updated: after games of March 14)
1. Medicine Hat vs Calgary for #3/#4 in the Eastern Conference:
Medicine Hat's remaining sched: vs Edmonton, vs Lethbridge
Calgary's remaining sched: @Kootenay, vs Kootenay
2. Kootenay, Regina, Saskatoon, and Brandon for #5 - #8 in the Eastern Conference:
Heading into the final weekend, it is still all but impossible to figure out what could happen here. Any of these four teams could still mathematically finish in any of the bottom four playoff positions in the East and thus none of the first round matchups in the conference is even close to being settled.
Regina is in 5th with 82 points. Kootenay and Saskatoon are tied for 6th with 81 points and Brandon is in 8th with 79 points. So 3 points separate all four teams.
Saskatoon's remaining sched: @Swift Current, vs Swift Current
Kootenay's remaining sched: vs Calgary, @Calgary
Regina's remaining sched: vs Brandon, @Brandon
Brandon's remaining sched: @Regina, vs Regina
Kootenay has the toughest schedule, with both of their games being against a top four team - although, the Ice have had a lot of success against the Hitmen this year. Saskatoon has an easy sched, playing both games against a non-playoff opponent. Regina and Brandon have two games against each other, which is always great to have in these races.
3. Portland vs. Tri-City for the U.S. division title and #1/#3 seed in the conference:
These two are miles ahead of anyone else in the division and have been dueling at the top all season. Two points separate the two right now. At stake is home ice for any potential playoff meeting, and the chance to avoid Kamloops (who are locked into the #2 seed now) in the 2nd round.
Portland's remaining sched: @VIC, vs SEA
Tri-City's remaining sched: vs EVT, vs SPO
Portland has an easier schedule since they only play teams at the bottom of the conference while the Americans have a date with Spokane. But, the Americans have a two point lead in the standings and also have the edge right now in wins, which would be the first tiebreaker.The Hawks MUST sweep their remaining games and hope the Ams lose both games if they want any chance of getting that #1 seed.
4. Spokane and Vancouver for #4 / #5 seeds in the West:
These two teams know they're going to face each other in the first round. They can't move up and they can't move down. They'll be the #4 and #5 seeds in some order, so what's at stake here is who gets home ice advantage for that series. The teams are tied in points and both have two games remaining.
Spokane's remaining sched: vs SEA, @TRI
Vancouver's remaining sched: vs KEL, @KEL
The Giants have the edge in wins, so the Chiefs must get more points out of their last two games than the Giants do. The Chiefs have one top-ranked opponent left (Tri-City) while the Giants finish with a couple against a team with nothing to play for (Kelowna) so it's a tough one for the Chiefs the way it looks now.
5. Victoria, Everett, Seattle, and Prince George for the last two playoff spots in the Western Conference:
Victoria and Everett are currently holding down the two spots with 53 and 52 points each respectively, with Seattle two points back at 50 and Prince George two more back at 48.
With only two games remaining while four points out, Prince George's playoff chances pretty much amount to: "win our two games against Kamloops, while hoping Everett loses all their remaining games in regulation and Seattle does not get more than 2 points from their last three games". In other words, they're pretty much done like dinner and this is a three team race.
Seattle has some control over their fate in that they have (A) two games in hand on Victoria and (B) one game against Everett plus another game in hand on Everett. Winning the games in hand as well as the game against the Tips would put Seattle into 7th. Of course, talk about what they COULD do is cheap....they have to DO these things for those advantages to count.
Victoria's remaining sched: vs POR, vs POR
Everett's remaining sched: @KEL, @TRI, @SEA
Seattle's remaining sched: @SPO, vs EVT, @POR
Prince George's remaining sched: @KAM, vs KAM
Looking at the schedules, I think it's a decent possibility that for the 2nd time in WHL history we could be looking at a one-game playoff for the final playoff spot.
6. Edmonton, Portland, and Tri-City for #1 overall in the league:
This is one which doesn't mean all that much in the playoffs until May, but could be very valuable then. The order of overall finish will determine who has home ice advantage in that final series, so it's a valuable chip to have in your pocket should you advance that far.
A three team race here, one of whom has 103 points, one of whom has 102 points and one who has 100 points. I think Portland (with 100 points) is probably close to out of the race; they'd need to win their last two and have Edmonton and Tri-City both not get more than 1 point from their last two.
Three more days of games remaining on the WHL regular season schedule this year. Looking at the standings, I see six distinct playoff "races" in progress. Here's a little look at all six:
(Last updated: after games of March 14)
1. Medicine Hat vs Calgary for #3/#4 in the Eastern Conference:
The Tigers and Hitmen are locked into the #3/#4 seeds in the East. They already know they will have home ice advantage in the first round, it's just a question of who will be #3 and who will be #4. If one is more desirable than the other, it's probably because #3 will definitely avoid conference leader Edmonton in the 2nd round.
The Tigers have a two point lead on the Hitmen with both teams having two games left. Looking at the schedules, it seems doubtful that Calgary can make up two points on the Tigers.
Medicine Hat's remaining sched: vs Edmonton, vs Lethbridge
Calgary's remaining sched: @Kootenay, vs Kootenay
Heading into the final weekend, it is still all but impossible to figure out what could happen here. Any of these four teams could still mathematically finish in any of the bottom four playoff positions in the East and thus none of the first round matchups in the conference is even close to being settled.
Regina is in 5th with 82 points. Kootenay and Saskatoon are tied for 6th with 81 points and Brandon is in 8th with 79 points. So 3 points separate all four teams.
Saskatoon's remaining sched: @Swift Current, vs Swift Current
Kootenay's remaining sched: vs Calgary, @Calgary
Regina's remaining sched: vs Brandon, @Brandon
Brandon's remaining sched: @Regina, vs Regina
Kootenay has the toughest schedule, with both of their games being against a top four team - although, the Ice have had a lot of success against the Hitmen this year. Saskatoon has an easy sched, playing both games against a non-playoff opponent. Regina and Brandon have two games against each other, which is always great to have in these races.
3. Portland vs. Tri-City for the U.S. division title and #1/#3 seed in the conference:
These two are miles ahead of anyone else in the division and have been dueling at the top all season. Two points separate the two right now. At stake is home ice for any potential playoff meeting, and the chance to avoid Kamloops (who are locked into the #2 seed now) in the 2nd round.
Portland's remaining sched: @VIC, vs SEA
Tri-City's remaining sched: vs EVT, vs SPO
Portland has an easier schedule since they only play teams at the bottom of the conference while the Americans have a date with Spokane. But, the Americans have a two point lead in the standings and also have the edge right now in wins, which would be the first tiebreaker.The Hawks MUST sweep their remaining games and hope the Ams lose both games if they want any chance of getting that #1 seed.
4. Spokane and Vancouver for #4 / #5 seeds in the West:
These two teams know they're going to face each other in the first round. They can't move up and they can't move down. They'll be the #4 and #5 seeds in some order, so what's at stake here is who gets home ice advantage for that series. The teams are tied in points and both have two games remaining.
Spokane's remaining sched: vs SEA, @TRI
Vancouver's remaining sched: vs KEL, @KEL
The Giants have the edge in wins, so the Chiefs must get more points out of their last two games than the Giants do. The Chiefs have one top-ranked opponent left (Tri-City) while the Giants finish with a couple against a team with nothing to play for (Kelowna) so it's a tough one for the Chiefs the way it looks now.
5. Victoria, Everett, Seattle, and Prince George for the last two playoff spots in the Western Conference:
Victoria and Everett are currently holding down the two spots with 53 and 52 points each respectively, with Seattle two points back at 50 and Prince George two more back at 48.
With only two games remaining while four points out, Prince George's playoff chances pretty much amount to: "win our two games against Kamloops, while hoping Everett loses all their remaining games in regulation and Seattle does not get more than 2 points from their last three games". In other words, they're pretty much done like dinner and this is a three team race.
Seattle has some control over their fate in that they have (A) two games in hand on Victoria and (B) one game against Everett plus another game in hand on Everett. Winning the games in hand as well as the game against the Tips would put Seattle into 7th. Of course, talk about what they COULD do is cheap....they have to DO these things for those advantages to count.
Victoria's remaining sched: vs POR, vs POR
Everett's remaining sched: @KEL, @TRI, @SEA
Seattle's remaining sched: @SPO, vs EVT, @POR
Prince George's remaining sched: @KAM, vs KAM
Looking at the schedules, I think it's a decent possibility that for the 2nd time in WHL history we could be looking at a one-game playoff for the final playoff spot.
6. Edmonton, Portland, and Tri-City for #1 overall in the league:
This is one which doesn't mean all that much in the playoffs until May, but could be very valuable then. The order of overall finish will determine who has home ice advantage in that final series, so it's a valuable chip to have in your pocket should you advance that far.
A three team race here, one of whom has 103 points, one of whom has 102 points and one who has 100 points. I think Portland (with 100 points) is probably close to out of the race; they'd need to win their last two and have Edmonton and Tri-City both not get more than 1 point from their last two.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Last night's games
Quick rundown of last night's games and their effects on the playoff races:
- Red Deer upset Medicine Hat 4-2. The Rebels are already out of the playoffs, but the Tigers loss created a game in hand for the Hitmen which, if they won, would move Calgary ahead of the Tigers into 3rd in the Eastern Conference
- Saskatoon beat Prince Albert; the Raiders are also out of the playoffs but the Blades win vaulted them from 7th place into 5th place in the tightly-packed Eastern standings. They jumped ahead of Kootenay and Regina, although both the Ice and Pats now have a game in hand on the Blades and could re-pass the Blades just by winning that game.
- Seattle upset Spokane 3-1. This game was big for the T-Birds' playoff hopes. With the win they are now one point behind the Royals for 8th place and a playoff spot, and they still have a game in hand on the Royals. They're also 2 pts back of Everett for 7th place and have a meeting with Everett still to come on Saturday. For the Chiefs, the loss means they no longer control their own destiny in their race with the Giants for the #4/#5 spots. They now need to win their remaining game in hand on the Giants AND gain one other point on the Giants somehow if they want to host that first round series instead of beginning in Vancouver.
- lastly but not leastly, Prince George stayed alive with a 5-4 OT win over the Americans. A loss would have eliminated the Cougars from the playoffs, but the win means they still have a chance. A slim, slim chance, but a chance. For the Americans, the loser point extends their lead over the Winterhawks atop the division and conference standings to two points, although Portland does have a game in hand which could erase that lead.
- Red Deer upset Medicine Hat 4-2. The Rebels are already out of the playoffs, but the Tigers loss created a game in hand for the Hitmen which, if they won, would move Calgary ahead of the Tigers into 3rd in the Eastern Conference
- Saskatoon beat Prince Albert; the Raiders are also out of the playoffs but the Blades win vaulted them from 7th place into 5th place in the tightly-packed Eastern standings. They jumped ahead of Kootenay and Regina, although both the Ice and Pats now have a game in hand on the Blades and could re-pass the Blades just by winning that game.
- Seattle upset Spokane 3-1. This game was big for the T-Birds' playoff hopes. With the win they are now one point behind the Royals for 8th place and a playoff spot, and they still have a game in hand on the Royals. They're also 2 pts back of Everett for 7th place and have a meeting with Everett still to come on Saturday. For the Chiefs, the loss means they no longer control their own destiny in their race with the Giants for the #4/#5 spots. They now need to win their remaining game in hand on the Giants AND gain one other point on the Giants somehow if they want to host that first round series instead of beginning in Vancouver.
- lastly but not leastly, Prince George stayed alive with a 5-4 OT win over the Americans. A loss would have eliminated the Cougars from the playoffs, but the win means they still have a chance. A slim, slim chance, but a chance. For the Americans, the loser point extends their lead over the Winterhawks atop the division and conference standings to two points, although Portland does have a game in hand which could erase that lead.
Friday, March 9, 2012
Friday games
The effects of tonight's games on the playoff races....
- Regina's win over Moose Jaw clinches a playoff spot for the Pats
- Saskatoon's win over Brandon clinches a playoff spot for the Blades
- Edmonton's win over Red Deer, combined with that loss by the Warriors, means the Oil Kings have locked up first place overall in the Eastern Conference.
- Red Deer's loss means the best they can do now is tie Brandon for the last playoff spot and thus play a one-game tiebreaker. I'm still pretty sure that tiebreaker won't be necessary and Red Deer will be mathematically eliminated by the end of the weekend.
- Tri-City, Kamloops, and Portland all win, so nothing changes in the big race atop the Western standings except that everyone now has one fewer game to play.
- Victoria won while Everett lost, so the Royals slip back ahead of the Silvertips for 7th in the West.
- Regina's win over Moose Jaw clinches a playoff spot for the Pats
- Saskatoon's win over Brandon clinches a playoff spot for the Blades
- Edmonton's win over Red Deer, combined with that loss by the Warriors, means the Oil Kings have locked up first place overall in the Eastern Conference.
- Red Deer's loss means the best they can do now is tie Brandon for the last playoff spot and thus play a one-game tiebreaker. I'm still pretty sure that tiebreaker won't be necessary and Red Deer will be mathematically eliminated by the end of the weekend.
- Tri-City, Kamloops, and Portland all win, so nothing changes in the big race atop the Western standings except that everyone now has one fewer game to play.
- Victoria won while Everett lost, so the Royals slip back ahead of the Silvertips for 7th in the West.
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Wednesday games
Few notes on last night's games and what they meant to the playoff races...
- pretty much a nightmare scenario for the Red Deer Rebels as three of the four teams they could still catch all won. Only Regina lost. Red Deer is now 10 points back of the last playoff spot and they only have six games to play. Red Deer's playoff chances now amount to having to run their table while hoping either Regina or Saskatoon get only 1 more point at most, or that Brandon gets only 2 pts at most. The fat lady is now waiting in the wings.
- Kootenay's win over Medicine Hat clinched a postseason berth for the Ice. It also moved them to within three points of the idle Hitmen for 4th place and home ice advantage in the first round.
- Edmonton's OT win over Moose Jaw extended the Oil Kings' lead over the Warriors to 7 points in the race for first place in the conference. This was kind of a must win for the Warriors so losing ground, even if it was only one point, is a tough one. They need to make up 8 points (since they trail the tiebreaker) with only 5 games remaining. After the fat lady sings for the Rebels' season tomorrow night, she can come serenade the Warriors into the #2 seed.
- in a funny twist, that Edmonton/Moose Jaw game also resulted in both teams clinching their respective divisions. Edmonton's win, coupled with Medicine Hat's loss, gives the Oil Kings their first ever Central division title. Ditto for the Warriors' loser point coupled with Regina's loss giving the Warriors the Eastern division crown.
- in the West, the Bartschi-less Winterhawks lost to the Blazers while the Americans beat the Giants in OT. These two results served to bunch up the three teams at the top of the standings even further (only 2 pts separating the three teams now), and also resulted in Portland dropping from the #1 seed down to #3, changing places with the Americans.
- the bottom four teams (who are scrapping for two playoff spots) also all played each other, with Prince George beating Seattle and Everett beating Victoria. This also bunches these four teams closer together now, with only 5 pts separating the four teams.
- pretty much a nightmare scenario for the Red Deer Rebels as three of the four teams they could still catch all won. Only Regina lost. Red Deer is now 10 points back of the last playoff spot and they only have six games to play. Red Deer's playoff chances now amount to having to run their table while hoping either Regina or Saskatoon get only 1 more point at most, or that Brandon gets only 2 pts at most. The fat lady is now waiting in the wings.
- Kootenay's win over Medicine Hat clinched a postseason berth for the Ice. It also moved them to within three points of the idle Hitmen for 4th place and home ice advantage in the first round.
- Edmonton's OT win over Moose Jaw extended the Oil Kings' lead over the Warriors to 7 points in the race for first place in the conference. This was kind of a must win for the Warriors so losing ground, even if it was only one point, is a tough one. They need to make up 8 points (since they trail the tiebreaker) with only 5 games remaining. After the fat lady sings for the Rebels' season tomorrow night, she can come serenade the Warriors into the #2 seed.
- in a funny twist, that Edmonton/Moose Jaw game also resulted in both teams clinching their respective divisions. Edmonton's win, coupled with Medicine Hat's loss, gives the Oil Kings their first ever Central division title. Ditto for the Warriors' loser point coupled with Regina's loss giving the Warriors the Eastern division crown.
- in the West, the Bartschi-less Winterhawks lost to the Blazers while the Americans beat the Giants in OT. These two results served to bunch up the three teams at the top of the standings even further (only 2 pts separating the three teams now), and also resulted in Portland dropping from the #1 seed down to #3, changing places with the Americans.
- the bottom four teams (who are scrapping for two playoff spots) also all played each other, with Prince George beating Seattle and Everett beating Victoria. This also bunches these four teams closer together now, with only 5 pts separating the four teams.
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