World Junior speculation

Hockey Canada head scout Kevin Prendergast told the Saskatoon Star-Phoenix yesterday that on Monday when Hockey Canada names its list of 38 players invited to try out for the Canadian World Junior team, there will be 14 or 15 WHL names on the list.

That's a pretty good representation from the WHL, 14 or 15 out of 38. So with that in mind, let's try to figure out who might be the players invited to the camp. From various sources (I borrowed heavily from TSN's Bob MacKenzie's recent articles speculating on who might be invited, plus names that have been mentioned in a few other places as well), I've come up with about 55 players who might possibly be on that 38 player list. 18 of those are WHLers so hopefully I've covered most if not all of the 14 or 15 who will actually be named to the camp on Monday.

First, the goaltender candidates - with age, current team, NHL draft status:

Jordan Binnington (19, Owen Sound Attack/OHL - 2011, 3rd rd 99th overall, St. Louis)
Laurent Brossoit (19, Edmonton Oil Kings/WHL - 2011, 6th rd 164th overall, Calgary)
Eric Comrie (17, Tri-City Americans/WHL - 2013 eligible)
Zach Fucale (17, Halifax Mooseheads/QMJHL - 2013 eligible)
Etienne Marcoux (19, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada/QMJHL - 2013 eligible)
Jake Paterson (18, Saginaw Spirit/OHL - 2012, 3rd rd 8th overall, Detroit)
Malcolm Subban (19, Belleville Bulls/OHL - 2012, 1st rd 24th overall, Boston)

The IIHF has changed the rules this year and each team is allowed to carry three goaltenders now, with one of them designated as the emergency goaltender and can only play in the tournament if one of the two roster goalies is hurt. Since the third goaltender likely doesn't get to play in the tournament, some teams may use this as an opportunity to take a promising younger (maybe 17 year old?) goaltender who can get a taste of the atmosphere around the tournament in preparation for being on the team in future years.

Anyway, for Canada there are no returning goaltenders this year so it's a wide-open race for the three spots. Most popular opinion seems to hold that the frontrunner for the job is Malcolm Subban, a 19 year old from the OHL who was Boston's first round pick in the 2012 NHL draft. After that though, it's a free-for-all with several serious candidates in the running for jobs.

From the WHL perspective, the most likely goaltender to get invited and make the team is Edmonton Oil Kings veteran Laurent Brossoit, who was outstanding in the WHL playoffs last year in backstopping the Oil Kings to the WHL title. He has not been quite as good (at least statistically) this year as last year but he's almost certain to be invited to camp and a strong showing there could get him on the team, perhaps as Subban's backup.

The other possibility from the WHL is 17 year old Eric Comrie of Tri-City, who I think would probably be a candidate for the third goaltender spot along with fellow 17 year old, QMJHL star Zach Fucale. Both Comrie and Fucale are getting consideration for the first round of the 2013 NHL draft and could be serious candidates for Canada's nets for the next two years after this.

Now the defencemen:

Cody Ceci (19, Ottawa 67's/OHL - 2012, 1st rd 15th overall, Ottawa)

Frank Corrado (19, Sudbury Wolves/OHL - 2011, 5th rd 150th overall, Vancouver)

Matt Dumba (18, Red Deer Rebels/WHL - 2012, 1st rd 7th overall, Minnesota)

Dougie Hamilton (19, Niagara IceDogs/OHL - 2011, 1st rd 9th overall, Boston)

Scott Harrington (19, London Knights/OHL - 2011, 2nd rd 54th overall, Pittsburgh)

Slater Koekkoek (18, Peterborough Petes/OHL - 2012, 1st rd 10th overall, Tampa Bay)

Michael Matheson (18, Boston College/NCAA - 2012, 1st rd 23rd overall, Florida)

Ryan Murphy (19, Kitchener Rangers/OHL - 2011, 1st rd 12th overall, Carolina)

Xavier Ouellet (19, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada/QMJHL - 2011, 2nd rd 48th overall, Detroit)

Adam Pelech (18, Erie Otters/OHL - 2012, 3rd rd 65th overall, NY Islanders)

Stuart Percy (19, Mississauga Steelheads/OHL - 2011, 1st rd 25th overall, Toronto)

Derrick Pouliot (18, Portland Winterhawks/WHL - 2012, 1st rd 8th overall, Pittsburgh)

Ryan Pulock (18, Brandon Wheat Kings/WHL - 2013 eligible)

Griffin Reinhart (18, Edmonton Oil Kings/WHL - 2012, 1st rd 4th overall, NY Islanders)

Morgan Rielly (18, Moose Jaw Warriors/WHL - 2012, 1st rd 5th overall, Toronto)

Duncan Siemens (19, Saskatoon Blades/WHL - 2011, 1st rd 11th overall, Colorado)

Tyler Wotherspoon (19, Portland Winterhawks/WHL - 2011, 2nd rd 57th overall, Calgary)

Even without Ryan Murray, this is a lot of pretty good players. Eleven NHL first round picks on that list and one more (Pulock) who seems very likely to go in the 2013 first round.

Dougie Hamilton and Scott Harrington are returning players from last year so it seems safe to give them two of the seven spots for defencemen on the team. 

From the WHL, Morgan Rielly is probably a lock for the team. Dumba, Pouliot, Pulock, and Reinhart are probably 50/50 bets - so maybe two of them make the team. Siemens and Wotherspoon are probably more of a longshot IMO and will need amazing tryout camps (assuming they are invited) to make the team.

It's a very, very strong group of defencemen and that's why you can have a list of the four WHL defencemen above who were all (or will be) top-ten picks in the NHL draft and say that some of them are not going to make the team. Ceci, Koekoek, Murphy, and Ouellet are all guys who are going to be in the running for those spots as well. 

And lastly, the forwards:

Francis Beauvillier (19, Rimouski Oceanic/QMJHL - 2012, 6th rd 174th overall, Florida)

Anthony Camara (19, Barrie Colts/OHL - 2011, 3rd rd 81st overall, Boston)

Phillip Danault (19, Victoriaville Tigres/QMJHL - 2011, 1st rd 26th overall, Chicago)

Phil Di Giuseppe (19, University of Michigan/NCAA - 2012, 2nd rd 38th overall, Carolina)

Jonathan Drouin (17, Halifax Mooseheads/QMJHL - 2013 eligible)

Travis Ewanyk (19, Edmonton Oil Kings/WHL - 2011, 3rd rd 74th overall, Edmonton)

Brendan Gaunce (18, Belleville Bulls/OHL - 2012, 1st rd 26th overall, Vancouver)

Tyler Graovac (19, Ottawa 67's/OHL - 2011, 7th rd 191st overall, Minnesota)

Seth Griffith (19, London Knights/OHL - 2012, 5th rd 131st overall, Boston)

Jonathan Huberdeau (19, Saint John Sea Dogs/QMJHL - 2011, 1st rd 3rd overall, Florida)

Charles Hudon (18, Chicoutimi Sagueneens/QMJHL - 2012, 5th rd 122nd overall, Montreal)

Mark Jankowski (18, Providence College/NCAA - 2012, 1st rd 21st overall, Calgary)

Boone Jenner (19, Oshawa Generals/OHL - 2011, 2nd rd 37th overall, Columbus)

Scott Laughton (18, Oshawa Generals/OHL - 2012, 1st rd 20th overall, Philadelphia)

JC Lipon (19, Kamloops Blazers/WHL - 2013 eligible)

Adam Lowry (19, Swift Current Broncos/WHL - 2011, 3rd rd 66th overall, Winnipeg)

Nathan MacKinnon (17, Halifax Mooseheads/QMJHL - 2013 eligible)

Mark McNeill (19, Prince Albert Raiders/WHL - 2011, 1st rd 18th overall, Chicago)

Sean Monahan (18, Ottawa 67's/OHL - 2013 eligible)

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (19, Oklahoma City Barons/AHL - 2011, 1st rd 1st overall, Edmonton)

Matt Puempel (19, Kitchener Rangers/OHL - 2011, 1st rd 24th overall, Ottawa)

Ty Rattie (19, Portland Winterhawks/WHL - 2011, 2nd rd 32nd overall, St. Louis)

Brett Ritchie (19, Niagara IceDogs/OHL - 2011, 2nd rd 44th overall, Dallas)

Kevin Roy (19, Northeastern University/NCAA - 2012, 4th rd 97th overall, Anaheim)

Mark Scheifele (19, Barrie Colts/OHL - 2011, 1st rd 7th overall, Winnipeg)

Hunter Shinkaruk (18, Medicine Hat Tigers/WHL - 2013 eligible)

Colton Sissons (19, Kelowna Rockets/WHL - 2012, 2nd rd 50th overall, Nashville)

Colin Smith (19, Kamloops Blazers/WHL - 2012, 7th rd 192nd overall, Colorado)

Michael St. Croix (19, Edmonton Oil Kings/WHL - 2011, 4th rd 106th overall, NY Rangers)

Ryan Strome (19, Niagara IceDogs/OHL - 2011, 1st rd 5th overall, NY Islanders)

Tom Wilson (18, Plymouth Whalers/OHL - 2012, 1st rd 16th overall, Washington)

Eleven NHL first round picks here too, plus four more who will be first round picks in 2013. When you think about it, Canada could easily put together a team composed of nothing but NHL first round picks or first round picks-to-be. Of course you need to pick players based on their ability to perform a role though and not just on their NHL status.

There's four returning players on this list - Huberdeau, Jenner, Scheifele, and Strome - who should be considered locks for the team. And obviously Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is going to be the first line center if he decides to play (apparently he'll make his decision this weekend whether to play for the team or stay in the AHL). 

Amongst the WHLers, I'm hesistant to pick any of them as sure things except Nugent-Hopkins if you want to call him a WHL guy. I think it's more likely that any WHL guys who make the team will be slotted into 3rd/4th line roles which means the best chances of making the team in those roles might belong to guys like Adam Lowry, Mark McNeill, and Colton Sissons. They're all bigger guys who aren't afraid to muck it out and can contribute in penalty-killing, checking line roles and also cash in a few points here and there.

If they're looking for WHLers to play on the top scoring lines, then that's where a Rattie or a Shinkaruk can come in. They are smaller, slighter guys who don't have the size or physical temperament to play the 3rd or 4th lines at that level. 

There's really not a lot of spots available on the top two lines - Schiefele, Strome, and Huberdeau are there for sure and Nugent-Hopkins obviously as well if he plays. That leaves two or three spots for offensive specialists on the team and I would not at all be surprised to see 17 year old Nathan MacKinnon make the team in one of those spots as well. 

The one other factor in picking the team that I would point out is that this year's tournament is being played in Russia on international sized ice and therefore for forwards and defencemen, skating ability will carry a premium when picking the team. The tournament has been held in North American rinks the last four straight years so the bigger ice wasn't a factor, but it will be again this year.

There's also the NHL lockout factor; if the NHL & NHLPA settle their differences before the tournament gets started, a number of the players above could be lost to the Canadian team. Dumba, Hamilton, Huberdeau, Nugent-Hopkins, Reinhart, Rielly, Scheifele, and Strome are guys I would say for sure are going to be gone to NHL training camps and probably several others. 

So....pick your team. 13 forwards, 7 defencemen, 3 goaltenders. Post it in the comments section.

Not to ignore other teams in the tournament, here's a look at which WHLers will/might be playing for other countries at the World Juniors this year:

USA: Portland defenceman Seth Jones is a lock for the team. He played last year and might get consideration as team captain this year. Forwards Logan Nelson (Victoria Royals) and Henrik Samuelsson (Edmonton Oil Kings) attended USA Hockey's summer evaluation camp and could be in the running. Shane McColgan (Saskatoon) and Miles Koules (Medicine Hat) might be longshots to be invited.

Russia: Saskatoon Blades goaltender Andrey Makarov should be on the team for sure, as he was a member of last year's silver medal Russian team.

Sweden: Forward Victor Rask (Calgary Hitmen) played on last year's gold medal-winning Swedish team and should be a lock to be on the team again this year. 

Switzerland: defenceman Mirco Muller (Everett) has already been named to the team apparently, and I would fully expect forward Alessio Bertaggia (Brandon) to be on the team too since he was on it last year.

Czech Republic: Defenceman David Musil (Edmonton) and Marek Hrbas (Kamloops) were on the team last year and there's no reason to believe they won't be invited again this year. Forward Matej Stransky (Saskatoon) and goaltender Patrik Bartosak (Red Deer) seem to be pretty good bets to be named to their team as well. As for others - might one of goaltenders Marek Langhamer (Medicine Hat) or Patrik Polivka (Victoria) get a shot since they are allowed 3 goalies? Forward Marek Kalus (Spokane) is an option too but he has not played all year due to injury and still isn't healthy so that might scuttle his chances.

Finland: the only Finn in the WHL is Swift Current goaltender Eetu Laurikainen. Might he have a chance? From what I've read, Joonas Korpisalo (Prince George import draft pick who did not report) is likely to be Finland's starting goaltender but there is no clear candidates for the other two spots.

Slovakia: the Slovaks would probably love to have Oil Kings defenceman Martin Gernat, who played for them last year, but he has missed the whole season so far with shoulder surgery and probably won't be ready to play by then.

Germany: Prince Albert forward Leon Draisatl has been named to Germany's team already.

Latvia: Seattle forward Roberts Lipsbergs played for the Latvians last year and should definitely be asked to play again this year. Edmonton forward Edgars Kulda is another option, he has been nothing special in the WHL this year but the mere fact that he has played every game this year for one of the best teams in the CHL means he is probably one of the top 13 Latvian under-20 forwards in the world.....doesn't it?

And a few for the B-pool world junior teams:

Denmark: Portland forward Oliver Bjorkstrand played as a 16 year old for the Danes with the big boys in Calgary/Edmonton last year. They got relegated to the tier-II tournaments this year and there's zero chance that Denmark doesn't want him again this year, really really bad. The question is whether it's worth his and Portland's time to send him to dominate a meaningless tournament when he's playing good minutes in the WHL. On the positive-thinking side, if he does go and helps Denmark qualify for the 2014 A-pool tournament, then he will be able to get that high-level experience again next year. 

Norway: Prince Albert forward Jonas Knutsen has already been named to the team.

Ukraine: there's only one Ukrainian in the WHL and that's Hitmen forward Pavlo Padakin. Is he one of the top 13 Ukrainian junior-aged forwards in the world? Using the Edgars Kulda example above (Padakin has played 23 of 25 games for one of the best CHL teams in the country), then yes, he is. 

More on Portland

Paul Buker has an article on the Portland Oregonian's website today which digs a bit more into the WHL sanctions situation and Portland's possible options.

The line that stands out for me though is this one:

Key point, these airplane flights for parents to see their kids play were not offered as a condition of signing. They were given to players who had already signed.


If this is true, then suddenly the punishment meted out to the Winterhawks starts to look pretty severe for what amounts to a few minor violations from which the Hawks didn't receive much benefit. Bringing players' families to games, paying for some off-season training for a couple players, and providing a cell phone to the team captain are all pretty minor violation in my view. Yes, they may technically violate the rules against what financial assistance teams can provide players but it would be difficult to demonstrate how Portland really benefited from these things either. Some minor discipline is definitely in order but now the WHL's decision seems a little bit like using an elephant gun to kill a mosquito.

(As an aside about the cell phone, if the phone was given to the captain for use in conducting his captaincy duties - such as media interviews, arranging public appearances, etc - then I fail to see how that's even a player benefit and not a team expense, which I thought teams were allowed to cover? If it was for his personal use then that's obviously different but I'm sure many of us are provided with phones by our employers for conducting work-related business and we don't consider having to carry around another phone to be a "benefit" of our jobs, right?)

Getting back to the sanctions....the obvious conclusion many people will jump to is that there must be more to the story than what the Winterhawks' release yesterday admitted to. But we don't know, because the league says it won't comment further on the situation and the teams (presumably including Portland) are under a gag order not to comment either.

In the absence of any additional information coming out from the league, and based on what we do know, it's my opinion that the punishment does not fit the crime here.

The WHL needs to drop this stupid belief that silence is the best policy. It's not, honesty is the best policy. The WHL is a fan-driven league, their major source of revenue is the ticket-buying public. There's no multi-million dollar TV contract or sponsors dropping big bucks to call themselves the official rental car company (or official whatever) of the WHL. The WHL needs fans and to help with selling themselves to fans, some credibility never hurt. You don't get credibility by popping up out of the blue one day and laying down a massive punishment like this on a team with no explanation whatsoever and then burrowing deep again, refusing to answer questions (and dropping similar gag orders on all your teams) while confusion, anger, rumor, and speculation fly all around your league. It's bush league - though sadly, definitely not the first time the WHL has been content to look like this - and the WHL needs to be better than this.

Answer the questions. Tell us what happened. Give us a reason for this drastic punishment to make sense.

Minor trade

Red Deer has acquired import forward Filip Vasko from the Kelowna Rockets for a conditional 2013 6th round bantam pick.

I actually only mention this trade because Kelowna already owned Red Deer's 2013 6th round bantam pick from another conditional deal, the one that sent Austin Ferguson to Red Deer a month ago. Since Red Deer sent Ferguson home 2 weeks ago to decide if he wants to be a hockey player, I guess it's now safe to say the Ferguson trade has been nullified, Red Deer got the pick back and promptly traded it to Kelowna again for Vasko now.

Red Deer is able to take on Vasko because they sent import defenceman Jan Bittner home a few days ago, I don't think I mentioned that on the blog.

Portland sanctions

The much-rumored, much-speculated sanctions against the Portland Winterhawks for player benefit infractions came down today. Press release from the WHL here, but in summary:

• Portland's head coach and General Manager, Mike Johnston, is suspended for the balance of the 2012-13 season, including playoffs
• the Winterhawks are fined $200,000
• Portland is "suspended from participating" in the first five rounds of the 2013 bantam draft
• Portland forfeits their 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 first round bantam picks

(The 2014 first round pick was conditionally traded to Vancouver as part of a deal to acquire the rights to forward Rocco Grimaldi in July 2010. If Grimaldi reports to Portland for 2013-14 - which seems very unlikely - then Vancouver will get that 2014 first round pick and Portland will instead lose their 2014 2nd and 3rd round picks.)

To add more context to the picks, Portland has already traded its 2013 first, second, and fourth round picks. (The first rounder went to Seattle in the Marcel Noebels deal in January, the 2nd rounder to Edmonton in the Cam Reid deal in January, and the 4th rounder to Prince Albert for Charles Wells in September 2011). It seems safe to assume that those teams will get to keep those picks.

So what Portland loses in the 2013 draft is only any picks in the first five rounds that it still had. Those would be its own 3rd and 5th round picks, plus a 2nd round pick they had acquired from Everett in exchange for allowing Gerry Davidson to become Everett's General Manager.

So in total, they lose 2013 2nd, 3rd, and 5th round picks, plus 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 first round picks. The loss of all those first round picks is obviously a "holy crap" moment as this is a severe punishment that will have an impact on the team for the next 10 years, through the 2022-23 season as the 2017 first round pick could have played in the league through that season.

IMO the inability to participate at all in the first 5 rounds of the 2013 draft is pretty severe on its own as it means Portland will not get any of the top 110 1998-born players in the WHL talent zones. In fact, Portland does not have a 6th round pick either (they traded it to Vancouver for Brendan Jensen) and if they finish at the top of the standings this year their 7th round pick will be at the bottom of the round, so it could actually end up being that they get none of the top 150 or so players, although I suppose they will be allowed to trade for more 6th round and later picks. They're going to be really behind every other team in the league in this age group which will be a major obstacle in 2016-17 and 2017-18 when those players are in their 18 & 19 year old seasons.

Those punishments affect the team in the future (although losing the picks makes it difficult for the Hawks to trade for any impact players at this year's trade deadline too); this year's punishment is losing their coach and General Manager for the balance of the season. Portland is currently 2nd overall in the WHL (and first overall in winning percentage) so this is no small thing for them either. The Hawks have already announced that assistant coach / assistant G.M. Travis Green will take over both roles on an interim basis. Green has been there in those roles for a few years and knows the jobs so perhaps this won't have much effect on the team on the ice, we'll have to see.

After all this, everyone was, I'm certain, wondering WHAT THE HELL DID PORTLAND DO, EXACTLY to deserve these harsh penalties?

Well, the WHL didn't say and it sounds like they won't say. But the Winterhawks did issue a release of their own shortly afterward, in which they list the things they say the WHL found them guilty of:

• A player contract signed in 2009, involving flights for the player’s family and a summer training program
• Over the last five years, seven families were provided flights 2-4 times per season based on financial need and their distance from Portland
• Twice in the last five years the team paid for two players to each have a one-week summer training regimen
• The Winterhawks provided a cell phone for its team captain for a period of three seasons

The Winterhawks also stressed that "the WHL’s audit found no violations involving monetary payments made to players, their families or agents, or any violations related to the league’s educational packages." In other words, they did not make under-the-table payments to players and they did not offer any players educational packages above the league standard. And it seems the initial reaction to a lot of people upon hearing what the Hawks were found guilty of doing is to say that the league's punishment seems very excessive, based on this.

To me, the 3rd and 4th points above are trifling. Yes, they are against the rules and deserve punishment but these are not major benefits being provided which would call for punishment of this kind of severity.

It's the first and second points which may hold the reason behind the WHL's actions. Basically it boils down to the Hawks having provided free airfare 2 - 4 times per season for the parents (and perhaps siblings, it's not clear what "families" may entail) of eight players over the last five years.

In my view, if the provision of these flights to allow their families to come to Portland see them play several times a year was the perk that convinced these eight players to sign with the Winterhawks, then the punishment is entirely justified. That's eight players - a third of a roster - that the Hawks would not have had on their team otherwise. We don't know who these eight players were but in looking at Portland's roster over the last few years, it doesn't seem very likely that these were all marginal players since the team didn't have very many of those. So, if they got these players through these illegal perks and other teams didn't get players like that because they were playing by the rules, then this entirely justifies the punishments IMO.

Getting quality players that they would not have otherwise gotten has the obvious effect of improving the team on the ice (and they did make the WHL Final the last two years), which helps create the "winning environment" the team has been talking about for a few years and that has the snowball effect of helping persuade other players, even those legally recruited, to come to the team. So if this is what happened, then its effects are significant, far beyond whatever the cost of those airplane tickets was to the team. It deserves harsh punishment.

BUT, on the other hand, if Portland provided these flights just as a nice thing to do for its players, and the provision of the perks had no impact on the players' decisions to come to Portland (ie, they had already signed a WHL contract before the free flights were discussed) then the punishment seems very excessive. The team did not receive any benefit from providing the flights in that case. They already had the players. Obviously it's still a rules violation and deserves punishment, but not to this degree.

Based on what the WHL has done, I'm leaning towards them having evidence of this being more of the former situation and less of the latter. But we need more information about the offences Portland has committed in order to really judge what has happened here. It's unfortunate that the WHL has decided it's not going to say anymore about the situation because I think they owe it to the fans of Portland and everyone else to explain exactly what went on. How can we judge whether the league dealt with this appropriately and how we should feel about the league's integrity if we don't know the details of the situation?

And a last thought; regardless of what the final outcome of this situation is - whether the details ever come out or whether Portland has the punishment reduced on appeal (I assume they are allowed to appeal?), it it possible that the toughest punishment Portland will receive from this is the damage to their reputation. How will this impact them at the box office? On the recruiting path?

Ryan Murray out

The Everett Herald's Nick Patterson, the Silvertips beat writer, found out this afternoon that Silvertips star defenceman Ryan Murray has a slight tear of the labrum in his shoulder and will be having surgery on Sunday in Columbus, I assume with the NHL Blue Jackets' surgeon of choice. You can read Nick's tweets about the injury here and here.

Needless to say, Murray is not going to be able to play for Canada at this year's World Juniors. Losing a returning player who would likely have been team captain and who is of the calibre of Murray - the #2 overall pick in the NHL draft last summer - is a significant blow.

As bad as that is for Canada, it's probably an even bigger blow to the Everett Silvertips, who would have probably traded Murray to a contender by the WHL trade deadline in January, netting a king's ransom in return. Now, it's quite possible they will get nothing for probably the best player ever to play for their organization. The most optimistic projection for his return - 3 months - would mean he would be able to play again in late February, so just in time for the end of the WHL regular season. But that's best case; worst-case scenario of 6 months means he doesn't play again this season at all.

Any WHL team trading for Murray now would have to do so hoping that (A) Murray is able to play again this season before that team's season ends, and (B) either the NHL season is lost or that Columbus returns Murray to junior rather than keep him at the tail end of a shortened NHL season.

Those are some big ifs, and even if a team is willing to take those risks, it's going to seriously affect what the Silvertips could get in return.

The best (only?) place in the WHL for Murray now may be the Saskatoon Blades, who are the only team in the WHL that knows for sure that they'll be playing in mid-May when Murray "should" be healthy.

Team Western named

The Saskatchewan and Manitoba hockey people named the 22 players who will represent those two provinces at this year's World Under-17 Challenge today

Goaltenders:

Ty Edmonds (Virden Oil Capitals Jr A - property of Prince George Cougars)
Rylan Parenteau (Saskatoon Contacts AAA midget - property of Prince Albert Raiders)

Defencemen:
Justin Baudry (Steinbach Pistons Jr A - property of Everett Silvertips)
Hayden Fleury (Red Deer Rebels)
Nelson Nogier (Saskatoon Contacts AAA midget -property of Saskatoon Blades)
Ryan Pilon (Lethbridge Hurricanes)
Travis Sanheim (Yellowhead Chiefs AAA midget - property of Calgary Hitmen)
Jordan Thomson (Kamloops Blazers)
Reid Zalitach (Vancouver Giants)

Forwards:
Adam Brooks (Regina Pats)
Rourke Chartier (Kelowna Rockets)
Reid Gardiner (Prince Albert Raiders)
Rhett Gardner (Moose Jaw Generals AAA midget - property of Spokane Chiefs)
Austin Glover (Kelowna Rockets)
Jayce Hawryluk (Brandon Wheat Kings)
Dawson Leedahl (Everett Silvertips)
Ryley Lindgren (Winnipeg Thrashers AAA midget - property of Brandon Wheat Kings)
Kolten Olynek (Saskatoon Contacts AAA midget -property of Lethbridge Hurricanes)
Collin Shirley (Kootenay Ice)
Josh Uhrich (Moose Jaw Warriors)
Tim Vanstone (Prince Albert Raiders)
Miles Warkentine (Moose Jaw Warriors)

Team Pacific / catching up

The B.C. and Alberta hockey people today released the list of players who will comprise Team Pacific at the annual World Under-17 Challenge after Christmas. Team Pacific is always almost all WHLers and this year is no exception, as all but four players on the roster are currently playing in the WHL - and the four who aren't, two of them would be if they had chosen to report to their teams.

The roster:

Goaltenders:
Payton Lee (Vancouver Giants)
Jordan Papirny (Edmonton SSAC AAA midget - property of Brandon Wheat Kings)

Defencemen:
Ryan Gagnon (Victoria Royals)
Joe Hicketts (Victoria Royals)
Brandon Hickey (Spruce Grove Saints Jr A - property of Tri-City Americans)
Brycen Martin (Swift Current Broncos)
Dysin Mayo (Edmonton Oil Kings)
Riley Stadel (Kelowna Rockets)
Josh Thrower (Calgary Hitmen)

Forwards:
Conner Bleackley (Red Deer Rebels)
Carson Bolduc (Prince George Cougars)
Reid Duke (Lethbridge Hurricanes)
Thomas Foster (Vancouver Giants)
Ryan Graham (Saskatoon Blades)
Ryan Gropp (Penticton Vees Jr A - property of Seattle Thunderbirds)
Tanner MacMaster (Camrose Kodiaks Jr A - property of Spokane Chiefs)
Ty Mappin (Everett Silvertips)
Brayden Point (Moose Jaw Warriors)
John Quenneville (Brandon Wheat Kings)
Matt Revel (Saskatoon Blades)
Tyler Sandhu (Everett Silvertips)
Jake Virtanen (Calgary Hitmen)

Gropp and MacMaster did not report to Seattle & Spokane's training camps this past fall, choosing to play Junior A instead. They were those two teams' 1st round bantam picks in 2011 and would almost certainly be in the WHL had they chosen to.

Any day now, the Saskatchewan and Manitoba people should release the list of names of players on their joint entry, Team Western. Team Western usually has fewer WHLers and more midget players and this year should be no exception since there are only 15 1996-born players from Saskatchewan or Manitoba in the WHL this year in total.

A few other WHL notes from the past few days now....

 - changes continue in Red Deer, where owner / president / general manager Brent Sutter has donned the only hat he doesn't already wear. Coach Jesse Wallin was fired yesterday and Sutter is taking over behind the bench.

 - Sutter also made a player move, sending home overage forward Charles Inglis. The Rebels will try to trade Inglis but I really wonder how much of a market there is for a guy who has worn out his welcome with three organizations now. Inglis was leading the Rebels in scoring this year so the fact that the Rebels decided they were a better team without him than with him, just speaks volumes in my view. He's obviously a good player on the ice but does any team in the league really want to take on the headache?

 - the Rebels replaced Inglis on their roster by adding 19 year old former Blazer and Tiger, Rhyse Dieno, from the SJHL

 - a few other overage moves lately too: Regina has added former Hurricane/Silvertip/Tiger defenceman Alex Theriau. The Tigers released him last week when he came off the injured list, as he gave them too many overagers. The Pats have an opening for an overager now, at least temporarily, as defenceman Colton Jobke is on the long-term injured list.

 - same situation in Prince George, where the Cougars have added overage forward Ryan Hanes, a former Kamloops Blazer. Hanes takes Brock Hirsche's spot among the Cougars' overage trio after Hirsche was put on the long term injured list.

 - and Vancouver announced today that 19 year old import forward Marek Tvrdon is out for the season with an arm/shoulder injury. Losing Tvrdon dashes any hopes the Giants may have had of trading Tvrdon to a contender for more picks and prospects.

Another big trade

Is it still a big trade when no big names are involved?

Another significant "loading up" style trade in the WHL today, again featuring the Vancouver Giants as the selling team. This time it's 19 year old forward Nathan Burns who was the target, and he is on his way to the Memorial Cup host Saskatoon Blades. In return the Blades have surrendered 18 year old forward Travis McEvoy, a 2013 3rd round bantam pick, and their 2014 first round bantam pick.

This is a "big" deal only because of the inclusion of that first round pick. It's certainly not because any of the players involved are superstars. Nathan Burns, while a decent player, has 76 points in 186 career WHL games over 3 1/4 seasons. As an 18 year old last year, he had 34 points in 55 games. So far this year he has  9 points in 15 games. Not exactly the kind of numbers you expect from a player worthy of surrendering a valuable first round bantam pick for, are they.

To be fair to Burns, he hasn't been used in a go-to offensive role in his career, and he is a nice all-around package, a guy who has spent three years learning from Don Hay. He just doesn't have the big sexy scoring numbers you usually look for in forwards deemed worthy of paying this kind of price. Given that kind of role on a team with some good linemates, Burns could put up some decent numbers.

And to be fair to the Blades, Burns is probably not a one-year rental player. He has no NHL affiliation and thus it's quite likely (at this point anyway) that he will play in the WHL again next year as an overager, so for that first round pick the Blades are getting two seasons from Burns.

All that said though, if it's any indication of the prices being asked for players in the WHL this year that the Giants can get a first round bantam pick for a guy averaging 30 points per 72 games over his career, then we could be in for some wild times in the next ten weeks leading up to the trade deadline.

For the Giants, they now have two first round picks in both 2013 and 2014, something which could go a long way towards giving them some pretty good teams in the 2016 - 2020 years. It's a pretty good start to a rebuild which has been a while coming.

One last note, that 2014 first round pick the Giants get has some conditions on it; as part of the trade which netted them Brendan Walker from Brandon earlier this year, the Blades gave the Wheat Kings the right to swap 2014 first round picks with them. I assume that condition travels with the pick to Vancouver, so the Giants may end up with Brandon's 2014 first rounder instead of Saskatoon's. Basically the Giants will get the lower of Brandon or Saskatoon's 2014 first rounders.

CHLPA thoughts

I don't know how many times in the last two months I've said to myself, "I really need to write a blog entry about this crazy CHLPA", and then never did. After the events of the last week though, it's time to put thoughts to paper here. It's going to be long and it's going to ramble in places so I'll apologize for that right now, this is just kind of a brain dump here.

First, because I imagine the tone of this post is going to be very anti-CHLPA by the time I get to the end, I have to say off the top here: I do not think the CHLPA is a bad idea. Quite the contrary, it is a very good idea to have some kind of an advocacy group for major junior hockey players - somebody to look out for their interests and lobby for improvements to the major junior hockey player experience. Right now there is no formal group that does this; every player/family is on their own.

I don't think there's anyone who thinks providing knowledgeable assistance to sometimes naive/inexperienced teenagers is a bad thing.

But I do question whether THIS CHLPA is the group to do that. Their motives, their goals, and their methods seem poorly organized, poorly executed, and just generally amateurish. They're secretive, they're confrontational, and they seem to be advocating things which either (A) don't appear to actually be in the best interests of CHL players, or (B) are in opposition to other things they are advocating. There is no rhyme or reason to this group.

So far, from what we can gather from what they have said and done, the CHLPA's goals seem to be:

1) improvements to the CHL player scholarship program.
       a) administration of the CHL player scholarship program, funded by fans via a ticket surcharge
2) restoration of NCAA amateur status to CHL players
3) seeking to have players paid at least minimum wage for the hours "worked" at practices and games.

Now, it seems to me that #2 and #3 are mutually exclusive of one another. They can't very well fight to have CHLers paid a salary and then seriously think the NCAA is going to even entertain the notion that players who are paid a salary are amateurs. But we'll get there in a bit.

Let's go down these requests:

#1, the improvements to the CHL scholarship program. This is the one idea the CHLPA has come up with which has actually appeared to meet with somewhat widespread approval on various fronts. Currently the CHL scholarship program varies from league to league, but generally provides one year of post-secondary tuition and books in exchange for each year a player plays in the CHL. There are two catches though. One, the player loses the scholarship if he signs a professional contract with an NHL or AHL team. And two, the player must begin using the scholarship within 18 months of completing play in the CHL, or he loses the scholarship.

I think most of us are fine with the player losing the scholarship if he signs an NHL contract. An NHL contract obviously presents the player with the opportunity to make a significant amount of money and so paying for his own education down the road is not unrealistic. But AHL contracts are, by comparison, a pittance of money. Should a player lose his scholarship because he took the opportunity to play a year in the AHL for $50,000? Players who sign and play a year in the ECHL do not lose their scholarship money, so why should AHL contracts carry the same weight when AHL money isn't that significantly more than ECHL money?

And the 18 month limit could really use some extending. This really only allows a player one season of playing pro hockey before he has to choose between minor pro hockey or his education. I don't think players should be allowed to take ten years to make this decision, but something longer than 18 months seems quite reasonable. Why not 36 months?

So when it comes to the player scholarships, on these two things anyway, the CHLPA may have some backers. But where they lose people is on their proposal to remove the scholarship program from the control of the CHL teams, and instead administer and fund it themselves, through a proposed $1.50 surcharge on every ticket sold to a CHL game. So in other words, they want the fans to pay for this.

Last year, by my count, there were just over 8.4 million fans in attendance at CHL regular season games. I have not counted playoff games, although I should. But even at just regular season numbers, 8.4 million tickets at $1.50 apiece means the CHLPA is proposing taking in over $12.6 million per year through this system. That's more than enough money to pay for every single player in the CHL to attend university, which means that is too much money since many players have no interest in going to university after their CHL days are over (some of them want to play pro hockey, and some maybe want to be plumbers or work the family farm, things they don't need college degrees for). So why do they need so much money? And has any consideration been given for the potential effect on attendance of adding $1.50 to the cost of a ticket?

So something doesn't add up here on this funding idea.

Moving on to goal #2, restoration of NCAA eligibility to CHL players....

This is another goal that most everyone can get behind, one with clear benefits to CHL players. The problem here for the CHLPA's involvement is that issues of NCAA eligibility are things to negotiate with the NCAA, not the CHL, which seems to be the CHLPA's intentions. It's the NCAA that declares CHL players to be ineligible for NCAA competition; the CHL itself has nothing to do with the NCAA's rules.

The CHLPA's idea is to have the CHL take the steps to ensure that its players continue to meet NCAA eligibility requirements. The Pipeline Show blog did an excellent article on this earlier this week, which you really should read if you haven't already. Basically, the CHLPA has concluded that there are three issues which currently make CHL players ineligible for the NCAA:

1) the CHL identifies itself as a major junior league, and the NCAA regulations specifically state that major junior leagues are professional leagues.
2) CHL players receive a stipend from their teams which may exceed what is allowed by the NCAA
3) some CHL players have signed professional contracts with NHL teams and been paid signing bonuses

Regarding point #1, the CHLPA seems to believe that if the CHL just stops calling itself a major junior league, that the NCAA will be satisfied. This defies common sense, to believe that if the CHL leagues were to simply call themselves "junior" or something else besides "major junior", that the NCAA is simple-minded enough to accept that as having real meaning.

Regarding point #2, the NCAA allows players to receive what it calls "actual and necessary expenses" but clarification from the NCAA is needed as to whether the amounts that CHL players receive exceed "actual and necessary expenses". If they do, then presumably the CHLPA's position would be that the CHL teams need to reduce or eliminate those stipends. Would CHLers accept smaller or no stipends if it meant they could have NCAA eligibility after playing in the CHL? It means hitting mom and dad up for that $50/week to put gas in the truck and for that date with coach Chadwick's daughter.

It's point #3 that is the real stumbling block for the CHL and its fans. The NCAA considers any league in which some players have been paid money to play hockey to be a professional league, and all players in that league are therefore professionals even if not all the players have been paid. And basically the CHLPA's position is that to restore amateur status to all its players, CHL teams should not allow players who have signed professional contracts to play in the CHL. Basically, a player who signs with the NHL at 18 or 19 would not be allowed to return to the CHL, he would be required to play in the AHL or wherever else his NHL club wanted to place him. This would have the effect of removing 20 or more of the best players out of each league - by my count there are 16 current WHLers who have signed NHL contracts and that number will increase as the season goes on and NHL teams sign more of their prospects. I assume the numbers would be similar in the OHL and QMJHL. Removing two dozen of the league's best players has an effect on the level of competition throughout the entire league; all the other players are made better by being able to compete against the best.

Of course there's a way around this too: NHL teams could simply not sign players yet when they have intentions of returning the player to junior. But that's the NHL's business and outside of anything the CHL/CHLPA can control.

And lastly, goal #3: seeking to have players paid at least minimum wage. The CHLPA has threatened the OHL and its teams with legal action (see this article here), seeking to have players paid minimum wage plus vacation pay and overtime pay, and in fact has already started legal action against one QMJHL team on behalf of one former player (see this excellent article here for more info).

This is by far the most idiotic thing I've heard and the thing that really convinced me that the CHLPA is not to be taken seriously and exists to be a pain in the ass to the CHL and not for its stated purpose of looking out for players.

For starters, as I mentioned above, having players paid even more money would almost certainly invalidate their amateur status. Being paid a salary HAS to exceed the NCAA's tolerance for "actual and necessary expenses". So these two actions against the OHL and the Halifax Mooseheads, if successful in getting minimum wage-level compensation for players, would result in any efforts and changes made towards restoring NCAA eligibility to have been a giant waste of time. To me, taking actions that run counter to other efforts shows the CHLPA has no clear vision of what it is doing other than wanting to be a thorn in the side of the CHL on as many fronts as possible. Forget representing the players; they are not representing the players when some of their efforts will benefit some players while hurting others, while other efforts will reverse the two.

But really, let's take a deeper look at this minimum wage thing. For starters, the notion that the only payment players get for playing in the CHL is their weekly stipend is completely inaccurate. Teams provide many other things to the players at no cost - things that people with "real world" minimum wage jobs do not get.

Billets, for example. Every player in the CHL lives free of charge in a local home, paid for by the team. And meals: the food they eat at those billets is paid for by the team as well. So if the players (or at least the one disgruntled ex-QMJHL guy who's suing) want their time in the CHL to be treated like a real world job and be paid minimum wage, it seems to me like the team is equally justified in telling those players that they can now find their own apartment and pay for their own rent and groceries. How's that wage sounding now?

How about equipment - teams pay for equipment for the players, like those $200+ composite sticks that everyone in the CHL uses. I bet having to pay for those out of their own wages every time one breaks would lead to a resurgence in the popularity of the much-cheaper wooden sticks.

How about the scholarship fund? For every year in the CHL, a player will get one year of tuition and books at university paid for. What's the going rate for a year of tuition and books at a Canadian university these days anyway? $10,000? It naturally varies from school to school and program to program but this is another significant form of compensation that the players "earn" from playing in the league.

I could go on, but the point should be clear: the stipend is not the only form of compensation the players get and all these other things need to be taken into consideration when talking about how the players are "paid". I'm sure that when everything is added up, teams are already spending far more than the minimum wage equivalent, per player, per year. The CHL themselves has estimated their per player costs to the teams at $30,000 to $40,000 per season. That's a lot more than a full year's 40 hr/week work at minimum wage anywhere.

The CHLPA appears to have not thought this lawsuit through.

Which brings me to another issue with the CHLPA: they are not an accredited union anywhere in Canada. They would like to be, but right now they are not. How are they able to threaten legal action on behalf of players whom they do not legally have the right to act for yet?

And lastly now, the issue of the CHLPA's general credibility. As first reported by a few sources yesterday, there is some question about exactly who the CHLPA is. If you haven't already, then you really have to read these articles from the Toronto Sun's Steve Simmons and Joe Warmington, and this video from TSN's Dave Naylor.

If "Derek Clarke" is really Randy Gumbley, as some are speculating, then this thing has to be over. Gumbley has been convicted of hockey-related fraud in the past; why would any of the players want to be associated with him?

But whether or not "Derek Clarke" is really Randy Gumbley or not, it seems there is a fair bit of question about whether more than one person is using the "Derek Clarke" name. That alone is a massive blow to the credibility of the CHLPA. Why use an assumed name unless you're trying to hide something?

And the CHLPA's response to the Gumbley/Clarke situation sure didn't help their cause. "The CHLPA categorically denies that Randy Gumbley has any official position with the CHLPA", they said. The use of the word "official" (as opposed to leaving it at the word "any", for example) leaves open to speculation that Gumbley does, in fact, have something to do with the CHLPA, even if it's in a vague "non-official" capacity.

IMO it is fully reasonable for the CHL to want to know who, exactly, the CHLPA is before engaging in any discussions whatsoever. Look at the NHLPA for an example - on the NHLPA's website they list the name of every person who sits on their Executive Board, their Negotiating Committee, and their Competition Committee. When we talk about "the NHLPA did this", or "the NHLPA did that", there is no question about who the "NHLPA" is in these matters.

So far the CHLPA has given us the name of an Executive Director (Georges Laraque) who has appeared confused at times about who he is working for or with, and a spokesman ("Derek Clarke") who may not actually exist or who at least may be lending his name to other spokespeople.

It's too bad because a properly run CHLPA may actually be able to do some good for the players of the CHL. But as it stands, this current group isn't worth any more of anyone's time, either CHL players or CHL management.

Musil to Edmonton

The first major "loading up"-style trade of the season went down yesterday as the struggling Vancouver Giants sent their main trade piece, '93 defenceman David Musil, to the Edmonton Oil Kings for '95 defenceman Mason Geertsen and Edmonton's 2013 first round bantam pick.

Geertsen was Edmonton's first round pick in the 2010 bantam draft so the Giants essentially got two first round picks for Musil. A pretty good return for a guy who is also going to miss several weeks of action at the World Juniors (he's a lock to play for the Czech Republic). I really like Geertsen, he seems to be establishing himself as a good physical defensive defenceman and pretty good with the gloves off too.

For Edmonton, the trade further solidifies what has to be the league's best blueline group. No way does any team in the WHL (and maybe not the entire CHL although I haven't looked at rosters in the O or Q) have a better top five than Musil, Griffin Reinhart, Keegan Lowe, Martin Gernat, and Cody Corbett. Edmonton was already the favourite to repeat as WHL champions this year and that isn't changing with this deal.

Losing the first round pick isn't that big of a deal for the Oil Kings since they have two second round picks in the 2013 draft still - their own, plus Portland's pick which they got in the Cam Reid trade last season.

One last note from Edmonton's point of view, this is also a solid marketing move for them as Musil is another draft pick of the parent Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers currently have four prospects playing in the WHL and all four of them now play for the Oil Kings: Musil (2nd round 2011), Travis Ewanyk (3rd round 2011), Gernat (5th round 2011) and Mitch Moroz (2nd round 2012). The Oil Kings can market themselves to the Oilers fans in Edmonton, especially during the lockout, as the place to see future Oilers.

So who's next in the loading-up? It's a little early in the season for teams to be establishing themselves as sellers, but Vancouver is dead last in the league with only 8 points through 14 games, and are currently 7 points out of a playoff spot in the West already. The only other team in a similar situation (ie, who might already be thinking of calling themselves sellers) is Kootenay, who also have only 8 points and are 10 points out of the playoffs in the East, although they have several games in hand on the teams ahead of them. Plus Kootenay is only carrying 20 players right now so I don't think they'll be in a hurry to trade anyone for draft picks. Not yet anyway. I would also think that Kootenay doesn't have any players that would be of major interest to contending teams - not players the Ice would want to trade anyway, obviously they aren't parting with a guy like Sam Reinhart. Their 19 year olds are an unimpressive group and while overage defenceman Joey Leach would attract some interest, overagers aren't usually a big-ticket item for the most part.

We know Saskatoon is going to be a buyer at some point - and some rumours suggest that the Oil Kings got Musil by outbidding Saskatoon for him. So the Memorial Cup hosts miss out on this one; where will they turn their attentions next?