OK....preview & prediction time. Here's my picks for where the Eastern division is going to finish this year. I'll try to follow this with one more division posted each day of tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday.
And as an aside here, I truthfully don't see a great deal of difference between the Blades, Raiders, and Warriors. Any of them could be anywhere in the #4-#6 slots, I think. I had to slot them somewhere so I picked them the way I did, but I would not be surprised to see them finish in any order in the bottom half of the division....
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Brandon Wheat Kings:
Projected Losses:
Daniel Bartek (F-88): 54-22-14-36-18 (traded to Everett)
Daryl Boyle (D-87): 61-10-31-41-74 (graduated overager)
Tyler Dittmer (F-87): 62-32-26-58-34 (graduated overager)
Matt McCue (D-88): 28-0-7-7-84 (overage numbers - projected)
Theran Yeo (D-87): 47-5-13-18-109 (graduated overager)
Projected Returnees:
Forwards:
Matt Calvert (F-89): 72-24-40-64-53
Andrew Clark (F-88): 49-16-39-55-51
Del Cowan (F-89): 57-8-7-15-31
Jay Fehr (F-89): 64-16-31-47-30
Scott Glennie (F-91): 61-26-32-58-50
Nathan Green (F-89): 69-15-26-41-23
Jordan Hale (F-90): 56-2-5-7-26
Cale Jefferies (F-89): 69-5-15-20-40
Sanfred King (F-90): 63-2-7-9-16
Matt Lowry (F-88): 72-24-37-61-61
Brayden Schenn (F-91): 66-28-43-71-48
Defence:
Keith Aulie (D-89): 72-5-12-17-81
Chad Erb (D-88): 56-2-8-10-132
Alex Grill-Donovan (D-90): 38-0-0-0-17
Brodie Melnychuk (D-91): 58-0-6-6-19
Colby Robak (D-90): 71-6-24-30-25
Goaltenders:
Joe Caligiuri (G-89): 54-30-19-2-2.73-0.897
Andrew Hayes (G-90): 23-12-5-3-2.88-0.888
Projected Rookies:
Darren Bestland (D-90)
Paul Ciarelli (F-91): 5-0-0-0-0
Jesse Hall (F-91)
Graham Hildebrand (G-91): 1-0-0-1-2.96-0.921
Aaron Lewadniuk (F-89)
Ryley Miller (D-92)
Stephane Robidoux (D-91)
Brett Rock (D-91)
Mark Stone (F-92)
Prognosis: the Wheat Kings are looking like the cream of the crop in the East, with one of the oldest rosters in the league and with 179 goals returning from last season - including 130 points from a pair of 16 year olds last year who are only going to be better this year in their NHL draft year. The Wheaties should have five or six players top the 80 point mark this year so scoring is definitely not going to be a problem. The blueline has a couple of rocks in Aulie and Robak but the depth in the #5-#7 positions has to be a little bit of a concern for a contending team. They'll need some of the less experienced players like Grill-Donovan and Melnychuk to take big steps this year. And in net, Joe Caliguiri's average numbers from last year do not answer his critics who question whether he is the right goalie for a contending team. The good news for the Wheat Kings is that the 275-300 goals their offence is going to score can make up for a lot of weaknesses in other areas.
Prediction: First in the Eastern division and battling for first in the conference as well.
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Regina Pats:
Projected Losses:
Ryan Bender (D-87): 30-0-4-4-84 (graduated overager)
Ryan DePape (F-88): 27-3-3-6-14 (released)
Josh Elder (F-88): 52-4-9-13-83 (released)
Kirt Hill (F-88): 71-13-16-29-105 (overage numbers - projected)
Todd Kennedy (F-90): 30-2-3-5-41 (traded to Vancouver)
Tim Kraus (F-87): 62-15-44-59-86 (graduated overager)
Curtis Kulchar (D-90): 50-0-3-3-22 (traded to Vancouver)
Logan Pyett (D-88): 62-20-34-54-54 (turning pro)
J.D. Watt (F-87): 29-6-16-22-82 (graduated overager)
Projected Returnees:
Forwards:
Rudolf Cerveny (F-89): 61-10-9-19-39
Mitch Czibere (F-89): 67-6-15-21-53 (stats with Vancouver)
Scott Doucet (F-88): 30-7-8-15-22
Jordan Eberle (F-90): 70-42-33-75-20
Cody Hanson (F-90): 16-0-1-1-12
Brett Leffler (F-89): 56-9-5-14-77
Michael MacAngus (F-88): 72-18-33-51-32
Garrett Mitchell (F-91): 62-8-5-13-73
Matt Strueby (F-89): 65-7-10-17-34
Defence:
Victor Bartley (D-88): 25-7-17-24-42
Matt Delahey (D-89): 68-3-16-19-68
Dallas Jackson (D-89): 18-1-5-6-15
Alex Pym (D-91): 36-0-3-3-24
Colten Teubert (D-90): 66-7-16-23-135
Goaltenders:
Jeff Bosch (G-90): 23-11-7-0-2.92-0.897
Linden Rowat (G-89): 57-33-15-6-2.68-0.904
Projected Rookies:
Clarke Breitkreuz (F-91)
Jeff Dort (D-90)
Dominick Favreau (F-92): 1-0-0-0-0
Graham Hood (F-92): (1-0-0-0-0)
Tomas Hricina (F-90) (new import)
Damien Ketlo (G-91)
Koltyn Miller (D-91): 1-0-0-0-0
Kyle Mulder (F-91)
Justin Slobozian (D-92): 3-0-0-0-0
Jordan Weal (F-92): 3-0-1-1-0
Prognosis: the sky is not falling in Regina. Despite loading up for an unsuccessful title run last season, the Pats still have a pretty good group back this season. They are definitely going to need some guys to step up and fill some voids but I think the horses are here to do it. Up front there's Eberle and MacAngus as proven scorers plus guys like Czebere, Doucet, Leffler, Strueby, and Mitchell should all expect to double their point totals this year. And there's a couple real good rookies coming in too, Jordan Weal and Kyle Mulder, who should be able to generate some offence right away. The Pats should be no worse than a middle of the pack team offensively. The blueline (and I'm assuming they get Colten Teubert back from the NHL) is also above average with a very good top three of Teubert, Bartley, and Delahey, plus Alex Pym has the ability to be a top-four guy as well. Depth is a question mark here but they've got 45-50 minutes per game covered with those four guys. And in net it's an embarassment of riches as the Pats have already cut one goalie who would probably have made a lot of teams in the league, and still have three guys in camp. Whichever two they end up going with, goaltending should be very strong. The combination of all these things should put the Pats in the 85-90 point category, I think.
Prediction: 2nd in the Eastern division, 4th or 5th in the conference.
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Swift Current Broncos:
Projected Losses:
Erik Felde (F-87): 69-22-32-54-34 (graduated overager)
Spencer McAvoy (D-88): 57-3-8-11-49 (overage numbers - projected)
Levi Nelson (F-88): 67-25-36-61-152 (turning pro)
Zack Smith (F-88): 72-22-47-69-136 (overage numbers - projected)
Bretton Stamler (D-87): 28-3-6-9-56 (graduated overager)
David Stieler (F-88): 71-23-22-45-22 (released)
Dale Weise (F-88): 53-29-22-51-84 (turning pro)
Michael Wilson (D-87): 64-6-41-47-28 (graduated overager)
Projected Returnees:
Forwards:
Mike Brown (F-90): 38-3-2-5-24
Jan Dalecky (F-90): 62-6-9-15-32
Keegan Dansereau (F-88): 63-22-34-56-48
Justin Dowling (F-90): 71-7-20-27-4
Cody Eakin (F-91): 55-11-6-17-52
Brad Hoban (F-91): 56-3-6-9-20
Matt Tassone (F-89): 60-19-17-36-111
Geordie Wudrick (F-90): 66-20-24-44-72
Defence:
Derek Claffey (D-89): 58-0-10-10-59
Eric Doyle (D-89): 70-10-39-49-43
Jesse Dudas (D-88): 23-3-11-14-38
Ryan Molle (D-89): 62-2-8-10-57
Joel Rogers (D-91): 48-0-1-1-31
Goaltenders:
Mark Guggenberger (G-89): 11-6-3-1-2.17-0.927
Travis Yonkman (G-88): 57-31-19-6-2.67-0.909
Projected Rookies:
Blaze Bruyer (F-91)
Jordan Evans (D-92)
Andrew Hewett (D-90)
Oliver Jokel (F-91) (new import)
Christian Magnus (F-92): 5-0-0-0-0
Jordan Peddle (F-91)
James Martin (D-91): 2-0-0-0-0
Grant Toulmin (F-89)
Taylor Vause (F-91): 8-0-1-1-2
Dillon Wagner (F-91)
Prognosis: the Broncos lose five 20+ goal scorers up front, which is a big blow to any team, and they're going to need some of last year's secondary scorers - Dowling, Eakin, etc - to make significant increases in their offensive production this year. It might have to be scoring by committee but I think the Broncos should be able to produce enough offence to keep them in the middle of the pack in that category. The back end of the team is pretty strong though, with five defencemen returning from last year's group; Doyle-Dudas-Molle-Claffey is a pretty decent top four and there's some good rookies in guys like Hewett and Martin. And in net there are no changes from last year at all, with overage Travis Yonkman pushed by Mark Guggenberger. I don't think the Broncos are going to be quite as good as they were last year but I think this is probably around a .500 team.
Prediction: 3rd in the Eastern division, 5th or 6th in the conference.
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Saskatoon Blades:
Projected Losses:
Kirk Belyk (F-89): 51-3-4-7-15 (released)
Jordan Braid (F-89): 29-0-1-1-22 (released)
Chris Durand (F-87): 62-19-27-46-71 (graduated overager)
Ondrej Fiala (F-87): 58-20-32-52-54 (graduated overager)
John Flatters (D-87): 60-3-4-7-169 (graduated overager)
Colton Gillies (F-89): 58-24-23-47-97 (turning pro - projected)
Garrett Klotz (F-88): 52-1-3-4-96 (turning pro)
Kevin Philp (F-90): 36-1-3-4-44 (released)
Garrett Zemlak (G-89): 17-4-5-1-3.71-0.877 (released)
Projected Returnees:
Forwards:
Darian Dziurzynski (F-91): 33-3-1-4-18
Curtis Hamilton (F-91): 68-14-13-27-43
Derek Hulak (F-89): 72-16-30-46-36
Milan Kytnar (F-89): 62-9-13-22-66 (stats with Kelowna)
Chris Langkow (F-89): 32-6-12-18-6
Gaelan Patterson (F-90): 51-4-6-10-38
Mike Reich (F-88): 46-2-1-3-209
Travis Toomey (F-90): 72-12-12-24-99
Walker Wintoneak (F-89): 53-9-7-16-17
Defence:
Mitch Berg (D-91): 29-0-0-0-17
Stefan Elliott (D-91): 67-9-31-40-17
Ryan Funk (D-89): 68-2-12-14-100
Colin Joe (D-88): 68-1-12-13-24 (stats with Kelowna)
Sam Klassen (D-89): 71-1-24-25-103
Jyri Niemi (D-90): 49-14-20-34-57
Teigan Zahn (D-90): 69-4-15-19-104
Goaltenders:
Braden Holtby (G-89): 64-25-29-8-2.84-0.908
Projected Rookies:
Cody Chikie (F-91): 2-0-0-0-4
Jamie Crooks (F-92)
Burke Gallimore (F-91): 3-0-0-0-2
Charles Inglis (F-92): 8-0-0-0-11
Andrew Johnston (F-91)
Matthew Krahn (G-91)
Adam Morrison (G-91)
Josh Nicholls (F-92)
Tanner Sohn (D-91): 1-0-0-0-0
Brody Sutter (F-91)
Brendon Wall (D-90): 4-0-0-0-0
Prognosis: Thoroughly average team here, I think. Up front, it's funny how everyone assumes Colton Gillies is gone despite being only 19....I'm going to go with that assumption too, but his return wouldn't be a shock to me either. With or without him though, this is a team that is going to have some problems scoring goals. They really need Hamilton, Hulak, Toomey, Kytnar, Langkow, all those guys to double or triple their previous offensive totals. Defensively, the blueline is not too bad, above average definitely with a budding big star in Elliott and a couple very good guys to complement him in Niemi & Zahn, and one of Funk, Klassen, or the underrated Colin Joe rounding out a good top four. And in net the Blades have one of the league's better goalies in Holtby, plus a couple good-looking backup candidates who are still scrapping for the backup job. The defence and goaltending will need to be spot-on this season as they'll have to make up for the team's offensive shortcomings.
Prediction: 4th in the Eastern division and 8th to 10th in the conference.
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Prince Albert Raiders:
Projected Losses:
Max Brandl (F-88): 65-16-17-33-60 (released)
Dustin Butler (G-87): 48-17-25-3-3.08-0.905 (graduated overager)
Ashton Hewson (F-88): 62-6-9-15-77 (released)
Jared Jagow (F-88): 29-5-6-11-15 (overage numbers - projected)
Devon LeBlanc (F-88): 71-17-14-31-67 (traded to Seattle)
Cole Penner (F-91): 14-0-1-1-56 (to Jr A)
Mike Small (F-90): 48-3-2-5-8 (released)
Ryan White (D-87): 55-3-26-29-34 (graduated overager)
Projected Returnees:
Forwards:
Justin Bernhardt (F-88): 53-22-27-49-54
Dustin Cameron (F-89): 62-16-19-35-86
James Dobrowolski (F-90): 66-6-9-15-24
Brandon Herrod (F-91): 64-7-17-24-31
Jordan Hickmott (F-90): 55-7-4-11-24 (stats with Medicine Hat)
Bryce Lamb (F-89): 29-5-6-11-14
Ryan McDonald (F-88): 71-26-33-59-101
Matt Robertson (F-88): 72-27-32-59-42
Andy Smith (F-89): 43-7-9-16-14
Jordan Trach (F-90): 46-6-2-8-31
Defence:
Kyle Aschim (D-90): 29-0-1-1-0
Ryan Button (D-91): 58-0-8-8-30
Nathan Deck (D-90): 68-5-20-25-43
Zak Stebner (D-90): 40-2-3-5-49
Blaine Tendler (D-90): 46-1-14-15-28
Garrett Thiessen (D-89): 69-0-4-4-178 (stats with Prince George)
Tomas Voracek (D-90): 65-4-8-12-68
Goaltenders:
Steven Stanford (G-90): 31-9-16-2-3.72-0.895
Garrett Zemlak (G-89): 17-4-5-1-3.71-0.877 (stats with Saskatoon)
Projected Rookies:
Ryan Aasman (D-92): 10-0-0-0-2
Robbie Ciolfi (F-91)
David Dotan (D-91): 1-0-0-0-0
Jacob Edwards (G-92)
Ryan Harrison (F-92): 1-0-0-0-0
Jordan Kochan (F-91): 1-0-0-0-0
Brent Martin (F-92)
Igor Revenko (F-90) (new import)
Prognosis: some question marks on this team but some good strengths too. Up front there's Bernhardt, Cameron, McDonald, and Robertson who should provide some offence, but with three of those guys being overagers, the Raiders really need some younger players to step up with secondary scoring and position themselves to carry the load in the future. I'm not sure that there's a lot of guys there amongst the 17 or 18 year old vets who have that ability so the team might need to look to some rookies like Martin, Ciolfi, Harrison, etc in this category. The blueline is....OK, not great and certainly no big stars there, just a collection of unflashy 2 and 3 year veteran guys who should be able to get a decent job done defensively. Not sure how long they're going to carry five 18 year old defencemen though. And in net might be the biggest question, where Steven Stanford takes over as #1 after a so-so rookie year last year and will apparently be backed up by Blades castoff (can that ever be a good thing?) Garrett Zemlak.
Prediction: 5th in the Eastern division and 8th to 10th in the conference.
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Moose Jaw Warriors:
Projected Losses:
Terrance Delaronde (F-87): 70-17-20-37-117 (graduated overager)
Keaton Ellerby (D-88): 53-2-21-23-81 (turning pro)
Riley Holzapfel (F-88): 49-18-23-41-43 (turning pro)
Frazer McLaren (F-87): 48-15-18-33-119 (graduated overager)
Giffen Nyren (D-89): 69-7-15-22-58 (traded to Kamloops)
Joey Perricone (G-87): 59-28-16-13-2.76-0.912 (graduated overager)
Brett Ward (D-88): 71-2-14-16-38 (overage numbers - projected)
Ty Wishart (D-88): 32-4-23-27-18 (turning pro)
Projected Returnees:
Forwards:
Jason Bast (F-89): 72-34-45-79-28
Joel Broda (F-89): 70-28-22-50-72
Martin Filo (F-89): 51-7-7-14-30
Thomas Frazee (F-90): 43-3-4-7-25 (stats with Medicine Hat)
Evan Fuller (F-88): 32-2-4-6-33
Ryley Grantham (F-88): 66-10-9-19-163
Tomas Karpov (F-89): 70-9-14-23-49
Jordan Knackstedt (F-88): 72-31-54-85-116
Neal Prokop (F-90): 66-13-9-22-69
Brian Sommers (F-90): 38-1-4-5-68
Defence:
Ty Ariss (D-90): 22-1-1-2-41
Travis Hamonic (D-90): 61-5-17-22-101
Kevin Smith (D-91): 39-0-1-1-24
Ryan Stanton (D-89): 58-4-16-20-68
Chad Suer (D-90): 65-2-21-23-36
Goaltenders:
Todd Mathews (G-90): 20-9-5-1-2.75-0.895
Projected Rookies:
Clint Atkinson (D-91)
Paul Bonar (D-91)
Connor Cox (D-92)
Deven Dubyk (G-91)
Quinton Howden (F-92): 5-0-0-0-0
Dylan McIlrath (D-92)
Nathan MacMaster (F-92): 5-0-0-0-2
Riley Reinbolt (F-91)
Cory Scott (F-91)
Prognosis: I want to like this team but there are just too many question marks about the defensive side of the game here. There's actually some good spots up front, where there should get some good offensive production out of Bast, Broda, Karpov, Knackstedt (if he comes back) and Prokop. But I'm sorry, but the defence is a real mess of average and below average vets plus a bunch of green rookies, and their #1 goalie barely has a thousand minutes in the league, with sub-par numbers behind a much better team than this. They'll need some of those defencemen to make quantum leaps in their development and for Mathews to really surprise everyone if this team is going to make the playoffs.
Prediction: 6th in the Eastern division. 10th or 11th in the conference.
1 comment:
Great job
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