Dumba moves

Is this the kickoff deal to start the WHL's trade deadline runup? Portland and Red Deer swung a potential blockbuster today, with the Rebels sending '94 defenceman Mathew Dumba and a conditional bantam draft pick to Portland in return for '95 forward Presten Kopeck and conditional bantam draft picks.

I say potential blockbuster because of the small detail that Dumba is currently in the NHL, on the roster of the Minnesota Wild. But he hasn't suited up for a game for them in over two weeks and has only played in 13 of 32 games overall, averaging 12 and a half minutes of ice time per game. Which is not a lot of ice time for a defenceman so all these factors put together - plus the fact that they've already decided to loan him to the Canadian team for the World Juniors - would seem to indicate that the Wild are coming to the conclusion that Dumba is not in their plans for the remainder of this season. If I were a betting man I would be laying down a wager that we'll see Dumba in Winterhawks colours by the 2nd week of January.

To break down the rest of the deal, it's hard to really understand who gets what since all the draft picks involved are conditional. We know the Rebels get Kopeck (who is currently injured and not due back until mid-January or so) and that's really the only thing for sure right now. I would speculate (and only speculation) that the conditional pick the Rebels give up is only in the case that Dumba never comes back to the WHL. In that situation, the Rebels will send the Hawks a pick and the deal is simply Kopeck for the pick, and nothing else happens.

If Dumba DOES come back though then the Rebels don't owe the Hawks a pick at all. Instead the Hawks will send the Rebels a few more picks and the deal becomes Dumba for Kopeck and those picks. (All my speculation here still though, remember)

The conditional picks going to Red Deer are another good source of speculation. Normally a deal for a player of Dumba's calibre would involve a 1st round bantam pick, or even more than one. (Case in point: Kootenay gave up a 1st round pick plus a prospect who was a past 1st round pick, for Tim Bozon of Kamloops earlier this year). The stumbling block in Portland giving the Rebels a first round bantam pick for Dumba is that they don't have any first round picks again until 2018 thanks to the WHL sanctions last year. So it seems pretty safe to say they didn't give up any 1st rounders for Dumba.

So was it 2nds? 3rds? We don't know....I guess we'll have to wait and see if Dumba comes to Portland and then analyze the price the Hawks paid once we know what it was.

This deal also cements the Rebels as sellers at this year's trade deadline, joining Lethbridge, Moose Jaw, and Kamloops as teams we can be fairly certain are willing to deal veterans for younger players and prospects. From the Rebels point of view, that might include goaltender Patrik Bartosak, the reigning CHL goaltender of the year. He's an overage AND an import, which will reduce the potential suitors for him, but he would be a nice pickup for a team that sees itself taking a little playoff run but are uncertain about their goaltending. Other possible trade bait in Rebelville would be overage forward Lukas Sutter (Memorial Cup experience there with the Blades last year) and maybe 19 year old defenceman Brady Gaudet?