Stretch records 2010-11

One of the stats-type things I've done here on the blog for the last couple years is calculate the so-called "stretch records" - basically, figure out how a given team needs to perform down the remainder of the schedule in order to make the playoffs, assuming that a certain number of points will get you a playoff spot.

Here are this year's numbers.

For purposes of these calculations, I have assumed that in order to make the playoffs this season, a team in the Eastern conference is going to need 65 points, and a team in the West is going to need 68 points. This is different from most past years, where it has been much easier to make the playoffs in the West than in the East. But the West is ultra-competitive this year, while the East is showing a fairly standard dispersal of good vs bad teams.

So without any further blathering, the Eastern conference:

	Record to Date	Record needed for 65 Pts
1. Saskatoon Blades	33-10-2 (0.756)	0-27-0 (0.000)
2. Kootenay Ice	30-13-3 (0.685)	1-25-0 (0.038)
3. Red Deer Rebels	29-12-5 (0.685)	1-25-0 (0.038)
4. Medicine Hat Tigers	28-14-2 (0.659)	3-24-1 (0.125)
5. Moose Jaw Warriors	28-17-2 (0.617)	3-21-1 (0.140)
6. Swift Current Broncos	23-25-1 (0.480)	9-14-0 (0.391)
7. Edmonton Oil Kings	22-21-2 (0.511)	9-17-1 (0.352)
8. Prince Albert Raiders	19-24-5 (0.448)	11-13-0 (0.458)
9. Lethbridge Hurricanes	15-21-9 (0.433)	13-14-0 (0.481)
10. Regina Pats	16-23-6 (0.422)	13-13-1 (0.500)
11. Brandon Wheat Kings	14-25-8 (0.383)	14-10-1 (0.580)
12. Calgary Hitmen	14-28-3 (0.344)	17-10-0 (0.630)

And the Western conference:

	Record to Date	Record needed for 68 Pts
1. Spokane Chiefs	28-11-5 (0.693)	3-24-1 (0.125)
2. Portland Winterhawks	29-14-3 (0.663)	3-22-1 (0.135)
3. Tri-City Americans	28-12-3 (0.686)	4-24-1 (0.155)
4. Vancouver Giants	22-19-5 (0.533)	9-16-1 (0.365)
5. Kelowna Rockets	24-20-0 (0.545)	10-18-0 (0.357)
6. Prince George Cougars	22-20-3 (0.522)	10-16-1 (0.389)
7. Seattle Thunderbirds	18-19-9 (0.489)	11-14-1 (0.442)
8. Kamloops Blazers	21-25-2 (0.458)	12-12-0 (0.500)
9. Chilliwack Bruins	20-20-3 (0.500)	12-16-1 (0.431)
10. Everett Silvertips	18-21-6 (0.467)	13-14-0 (0.481)

As you can see, it can be argued that the Saskatoon Blades have already made the playoffs. They already have 68 points so if 65 is all that will be needed to finish in the top 8 teams in the East, then Saskatoon can lose all their remaining games and still be in the postseason, albeit likely as the #8 seed.

Similarly, Kootenay and Red Deer only need one more win each to "assure" themselves of a playoff spot.

What I like best about this year's number is the difference between the two conferences. If you look at the West, every single team in the conference can make the playoffs without having to play much better than they have to date. And if you look at the current standings, every single team in the conference does have a claim to a playoff spot right now, either through actual points or through games-in-hand. So the West is most interesting in that two teams are going to fall short of those seemingly attainable stretch records and thus miss the playoffs. 

The East is more conventional - some teams can coast and still make it, some teams need only maintain their current pace (more or less) to make it, and some teams need major improvement to make it. Saskatoon is one extreme; at the other end, you look at Brandon and Calgary, teams that are .383 and .344 so far, and they probably need to play .580 and .630 hockey the rest of the way to make it. Tall order there, huh.